Early Season Overreactions

[ZachB]

Figured no time is better than 7 games in to the season to give out my, mostly unwarranted, overreactions to the start of this Twins year.

 

1. Injury bug is already killing us

I've been a bit disappointed with the transparency provided on the health status of our guys who came into the spring injured. Based off the reports the fans got during spring, it seemed that Polanco and Kirilloff were both looking to be fine for opening day. As time went on, little more info was provided yet it became clear and clearer that each's chance of being ready was pretty slim. Now 7 days in and it seems that both are at least 2 weeks out of playing in Minneapolis, definitely disappointing for 2 players that figure to be middle of the order pieces if truly healthy. We also heard little on the state of Buxton's knee, it was my presumption at least that he would be on his usual oft rested schedule, but available to play the field. Now we know that for April at least he will be locked into the DH slot role. Honestly I find it a bit fortunate that the rest of the roster isn't healthy right now, Buxton DHing isn't currently blocking a better bat from entering the lineup, and MAT has filled the CF slot admirably, but this could become a bit of an issue in coming weeks.

Those were the three injuries we had heard of going into the spring, and the main three known coming out of camp too. One week in and we've now lost Kepler and Gallo to injuries. The status of both players seems a bit unclear, Kepler supposedly available to PH the last few games yet they're unsure if he'll be ready today and thus could warrant a corresponding IL move. Gallo w/ a core muscle injury that he's supposedly been playing through. Those have a track record of being lingering issues that can shut players down for months in the end, here's to hoping it's minor as Gallo has looked extremely comfortable at the plate so far.

Interested to see if any roster moves come today, if anyone has any thoughts on what they should do if an IL move from Kep or Gallo is necessary pls chime in. If one goes to the IL I would like to think Joulien is first up if someone goes to the IL, not sure I believe it though given his inability to play outfield.

 

2. Pitching is the best I can remember in the 2000's

Granted, 1.5 times through the rotation is a bit early to comment, especially when the teams we've played are the offensive juggernauts in KC and Miami, but our pitching staff has a different feel to it than past years. Pablo looks like an ace thanks to a new plus-pitch in the sweeper, and added velocity (Not sure why we don't mandate pitchers go to Driveline in the offseason at this point), Sonny Gray ditched his first week control woes yesterday and was dominant with every pitch he threw. Joe Ryan is honestly the biggest wild card (health withstanding the staff) in my opinion. His fastball gives him a solid floor, and I think last year stuff wise was about the worst we will see from him. Week 1 wasn't particularly encouraging, although seeing 96 flash on the gun from him was exciting, the inability to land either the breaking pitch or the splitter was disappointing, I think if we see him right those week 1 woes we could see a very, very good Joe Ryan this year. With Tyler Mahle the only concern in my mind is health, if he's healthy we know what we're getting, a borderline all-star who has 3 good pitches and can generate a lot of whiffs. I'd personally love to see his velo tick up and live in the 95-6 area like pre-injury last year, to really feel comfortable, but was happy to see his performance/stuff in week 1. Again, remember this at the 4 slot in our rotation remember that. Lastly in the rotation we have king Kenta, back off Tommy John, who imho had the most impressive/relieving start in the first week. Besides one terrible slider that got hit approximately 580 feet, he looked fantastic. Control and offspeed stuff was always his calling card and he looked as good as he ever was against the Marlins. He generated a shocking amount of whiffs, and after an imo lackluster spring, his first start was so great to see. Haven't heard anything more about his injury, gonna assume it truly was minor, and it was originally reported as a wrist area issue which doesn't necessarily elicit immediate concern like the elbow or shoulder does.

The bullpen is also on track to be the deepest and best in a long time. We can all hate on Pagan, and eventually Megill will be back too, but having their sort of stuff in our lowest leverage slots speaks to how deep the bullpen is. Moran needs to find the zone with his FB more often, if his control continues to struggle I could see him having stints at AAA, otherwise so far I have no questions. Alcala has looked great and should thrive in a medium leverage situation with his stuff, we know health permitting we're gonna get elite bullpen stuff from Thielbar, Jax (as long as he's not throwing right on right changeups), Lopez, and Duran. Even Cole Sands stuff impressed me in his first action, touching 95+ and showing a good changeup to go with his plus curveball, I think he'll get every chance to entrench himself in the long relief role.

 

In short this staff has looked dominant. Yesterday's win vs the Astros really felt like a different team than years past. It always used to seem the twins were at a disadvantage if games went longer, especially against teams like the astros who will run elite pen arm after alite arm at you, but we matched them step for step. No Colome, no closer Pagan, no Duffey, this is a much improved staff all around.

 

3. Correa needs to fix his approach

 

Correa will produce, he's great inside the clubhouse and off the field, but it's still disappointing thus far to watch his ABs. This guy was always marketed as a pro hitter with big power, who has a knack for big moments. It's still early in his twins tenure but we're still waiting for some of those signature clutch moments. He's hit a few balls hard but generally has looked lost at the plate, chase rate appears abnormally high, and then gets caught taking pitches that he should be trying to drive, everything is a bit backwards rn and it's clear he's not seeing it well or feeling too hot at the plate. With our current lineup sans Kep and Gallo, he's one of 4 or 5 guys that we'll run out there who's a true threat to go deep. It's imperative that he's having better ABs. I have faith in him, and it's so early, but would definitely like to see him get hot now when we don't have guys like AK, polo, Royce, etc. to hide him with if he's cold. The twins talk a lot about simplifying swings on their mechanical side, Correa needs to trust that and start seeing the ball deep again. He'll turn it around, he's an upstanding guy who is hard to dislike as a fan, but it's still disappointing and will only get more frustrating as Royce gets healthier and Brooks gets closer to ready, the $35m price tag comes with expectations, there's no getting around that.

 

4. Despite what Twins twitter and FB followers believe, Rocco is not an idiot.

A lot has been discussed about Rocco's in game moves, unwillingness to extend starters late into the game, and devoutness to the platoon splits. 7 games in I can't highlight a single coaching decision that I can disagree with. Playing Farmer and Solano in favorable match ups has already paid off. You can dislike the decision to go to Jax when he did in the last marlins game, but it was the right call, with some better umpiring and less Jax changeups thrown I think that game ends differently. Rocco finally has the weapons to suit his analytical style and I think it'll pay off this year.

 

5. The Twins are favorites to win the central

Living through 2022 and now '23 as a twins fan has taught me one thing, how to hate on the damned Cleveland Guardians. A completely unlikeable team that seems to perpetually get lucky. Last year they were better than us, I don't think the same can be said this year. Their lineup is not bad, but I think we matchup favorably against them at almost every position. For the first time in franchise history I think our advantage actually comes on the pitching side. Shane Bieber will be good, but his velo is down again and advanced models just don't like his stuff, I think it's just a matter of time before he trend towards league average. Mckenzie is hurt, and even when healthy stats showed he was the luckiest pitcher in baseball and bound for regression. After that they have no one who scares you, if we face Civale, Quantrill or Plesac in any game I like our chances, really hoping they just trade Daniel Espino away before he inevitably becomes the best pitcher in baseball lol. Their bullpen is good, Clase will be great, but I think ours is better. They're gonna keep throw Karinchak into high leverage roles, and few things make me happier than watching that jackass struggle, maybe they'll catch on faster than the twins, but we know from Tyler Duffey that 93-5 mph fastball and a good curveball isn't enough to be good in the MLB, I'm so ready for his implosion. The White Sox lineup looks better and healthier than years past, and their bullpen can be scary with healthy Hendriks and Crochet, but their starters just aren't good enough to compete and they have no one in the farm that will be of real help. The Royals and Tigers should be better but they're years away still.

 

It's early, but this years roster feels different, excited to see how it plays out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

great post, welcome! 

For perspective, the 2021 Twins started 5-2 as well. Then, their offense went quiet, they went into a slide, had a series cancelled due to Covid (and it was considered good timing with how poorly they were doing), and then they had that signature loss in Oakland in extra innings, and getting back above .500 seemed unlikely. By Memorial Day they were pretty much out of it. 

In 2022, the Twins started 4-8, then went on a nice win streak at the end of April and built up a nice record playing bad teams in May. They battled ok the rest of the summer (fans will remember the Emilio Pagan meltdowns in Cleveland) but by September, they were out of steam.

So for 2023, I don't think we've really seen anything yet to change anyone's mind. The starting pitching has been great, but will come back to earth. The bullpen should be ok, but they will need to identify the live arms and not pigeonhole relievers into roles. Yes, managers can affect the outcomes of games. Guys like Nick Gordon and Donovan Solano, nothing personal, wouldn't be getting this much playing time for any other team with postseason hopes. They play in the worst division in baseball, but that doesn't matter if they make the postseason, when everyone starts 0-0 at that point. 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed with Hosken, great first post!

I think it’s a bit early in the season, but generally agree. I think C4 tends to take a while to warm up. He started slow last year too and (worked with Pop on his swing) carried the team for stretches ending the season with a 140 wRC+. I’m not worried at all.

Injuries are starting to pile up again. Rocco’s managerial skill is getting tested. Hopefully just getting them out of the way early and not another snake-bitten season.

lots of games to play yet, many of the ups and downs will even out.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, ZachB said:

Rocco is not an idiot.

You're gonna have to defend this hawt taek, I'm sure.