Twodogs’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Twodogs]

With no more moves this is my opening day roster.  

• C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M)
• SS: Kyle Farmer ($3.16M)
• LF: Joey Gallo ($11.00M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M)
• DH: Alex Kirillof ($0.70M)
• 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M)
• Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M)
• SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M)
• SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M)
• RP: Emili Pagan ($3.00M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.70M)

Payroll is 24.24% under budget

[chpettit19]

Looking at that roster I'd say their floor is pretty well set. 75-80 wins. I don't know how they plan to raise their ceiling from 80-85 wins to 90-95 wins, though. Going to need to be some creative trades, that don't include any of their top prospects. Hope they have a few tricks up their sleeves.

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Looking at that roster I'd say their floor is pretty well set. 75-80 wins. I don't know how they plan to raise their ceiling from 80-85 wins to 90-95 wins, though. Going to need to be some creative trades, that don't include any of their top prospects. Hope they have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Yeah it's weird.  I mean like it or not the starting pitching doesn't look bad, especially when you consider they are competing in the AL Central.  But the hitting lineup looks way below average.  They have some potential up and comers like Royce, Julien, maybe Walner, Kirillof, Larnach, Lee, Martin, etc....  But by the time they know weather they can depend on this new group of hitters almost all of the pitchers will be gone???  Just doesn't seem like they have been able to time things very well.  

[Mike Sixel]

That's realistic!

I also think they keep Kepler on the roster. The OF D would be great for sure. By June you are looking at either dealing vets, or trading prospects to get even better (if they are healthy and over achieve). 

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

I know we resigned Garlick but I can almost guarantee he will play in AAA. I think he will be like Cave last year where he just plays until he is needed when there is injuries. I’d rather give the last OF spot to Celestino or Wallner.

[Twodogs]

4 hours ago, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

I know we resigned Garlick but I can almost guarantee he will play in AAA. I think he will be like Cave last year where he just plays until he is needed when there is injuries. I’d rather give the last OF spot to Celestino or Wallner.

Yeah you could be right.  But I put Garlick on the roster because they seemed to use him a lot vs left-handed pitchers??  So I kind of looked at that ability to pinch hit late in a game against a lefty reliever or to start vs some left-handed starter.  

[tony&rodney]

Seems pretty close to the team, doesn't it? There may be a few trades still, particularly Max Kepler (just think he asked to go).

Not that it is important but this sight seems to have the best information (minimum goes to $720,000) on salaries: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

[Twodogs]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Seems pretty close to the team, doesn't it? There may be a few trades still, particularly Max Kepler (just think he asked to go).

Not that it is important but this sight seems to have the best information (minimum goes to $720,000) on salaries: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

I sure hope they don't trade him for Isaiah Kiner Falafa.  To me that would regulate Farmer to the bench and I think would make the Twins worse overall.  But I'm not sure that all of these teams are really in on Kepler or if they are just kicking tires to see what looks good.  I mean there are a lot of OF'ers laying around such as Conforto that they could get without trading anything away.   That's the main reason I don't want them to trade Kepler just to trade him because these teams know there are other guys available and they have the power to really low-ball the Twins.  So to me this front office probably needs to consider keeping him until at least they know if we are competitive or not, say June/July.  If they aren't in the running then trade Kepler and probably about 3 or 4 other guys.  Because then you'll know which teams have injuries that they are trying to fill etc.....  It just seems like this front office does things to appease the fan base.  I mean when they can't accomplish the big thing to appease the fans, like Wheeler, then they go out and get Donaldson.  When they can't resign Correa they go and pull in Gallo.  

I also think that everyone wants to move on from Kepler, which I get he hasn't lived up to what he was billed as.  Especially after his big 2019 season.  But Kirillof and Larnach just haven't proven themselves at this point in time.  And believe me, I would love for one or both of those guys to break out and hit 25 bombs and have a .800 ops but I was hoping for that with Restovich and Buchanan too.  It never materialized, at least we know that with an OF of Buxton, Gallo, and Kepler the Twins will have the best fielding outfield in the AL.  If Gallo and Kepler rebound just a little then they would have a chance to do something.  But we will see what happens.

There seems to be a lot of relief pitchers sitting around out there still also.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I sure hope they don't trade him for Isaiah Kiner Falafa. 

Huh? I have zero interest in IKF. You confused my post with someone else. 

Also, Kepler has likely requested a trade. He has hit a dead end. Of course, the Twins do not need to trade him, but they added Gallo for $11 million and cannot cut him without paying the entire salary. Polanco and Kepler are the two Twins I have enjoyed consistently but Max will be gone by Opening Day.

[Twodogs]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Huh? I have zero interest in IKF. You confused my post with someone else. 

Also, Kepler has likely requested a trade. He has hit a dead end. Of course, the Twins do not need to trade him, but they added Gallo for $11 million and cannot cut him without paying the entire salary. Polanco and Kepler are the two Twins I have enjoyed consistently but Max will be gone by Opening Day.

No, I didn't say that you said that.  I was just throwing out there what the Yankees would probably offer.   Especially after watching them bench him in the playoffs.  No I didn't say that you said that at all.  I've been frustrated with Kepler, but I just don't want them to give him away.  That's all I was saying.