Doc's RX/Blueprint for 2023

[DocBauer]

I'm doing this a bit different than others have as we've all seen the proposed salaries and expected names listed over and again. I thought about waiting until the WS was done to see if there were any surprises in cuts made by other teams in the post. But I don't see enough said surprises on the horizon to make an impact.

A couple brief notes:

1] I DON'T see a payroll cut. The current payroll MO of the Twins has been to stay about dead center of total team payroll the past few years. And while finances and inflation issues could be discussed, there's an awful lot of $ still flowing in to MLB and I seriously doubt we see any league wide cutting of spending. In fact, I'm still expecting a normal, leage-wide bump in spending. It may not be large, but it's normal in the cost of doing business. Further, if ownership is concerned with butts in the seats, the best way to fill those seats is to put a good product on the field that wins, competes, and provides excitement. 

2] I am taking the approach, as an amateur, fantasy FO, that is keeping in line with a "normal" approach in that I'm not going to trade the system or go nuts by blowing things up. And working AS the hypothetical FO, I'm actually looking out for my job, so I want to fill needs and build the best, most competitive team I can without some crazy blowup. On PAPER, my team has few holes to fill to be quite good. But I simply can't trust in so many potential  "IF's" as to not provide my team with even greater depth and options. I need and want my team to WIN and compete, put butts in the seats, without depleting what I have been building.

3] Lastly, total dollars to spend is a little unsettled depending on what you read and who you listen to. I'm going with a recent breakdown, that was very detailed, by Gleeman and John on their podcast, that I believe reflects the TD Blueprint spot on or very close. With Pagan gone one way or another, even after arbitration, the Twins should be at about $95M before trades or FA. 

Enough preamble. But it's going to be detailed.

CATCHER: The Twins don't HAVE to add a LH option, but it would be nice and advantageous. Fortunately, there are 2 quality options to add to Jeffers in Barhart and Narvaez. They're quality, experienced backstops who are OK hitters with occasional power. They are 32 and 31yo. I like both. Narvaez has more experience in the AL, has a better career OPS, and is coming off a $5M deal.

MY SIGNING: Narvaez for $6M per on a 2yr deal for $12M per. I might even toss in a 3rd option year as the Twins best catching prospects are all in A ball.

SS: Yes, this is a hole to be filled. I'm obviously looking for a reliable stop-gap. And I'm really torn here. Two FA in Iglesias and Andrus that fit the bill perfectly, though with different thoughts about each. If the Yankees just dump IFK, he might be my 1st choice as he's similar defensively, probably better than either Iglesias or Andrus, and probably only slightly more expensive, and offers a little more defensive flexibility. If they don't cut him, we'd have to trade for him, though he'd probably come fairly cheap. And I've heard sound ideas for trading for Jorge Mateo from Baltimore, coming off his best season. His 2022 season shows pop/power and SB speed/production, but he also can't hit or get OB. So how much is his offensive "explosion" worth or real? Frankly, while I think the Twins milb system is still pretty solid...a little top and bottom heavy with not much in the middle...I just don't feel like making a trade unless it comes REALLY CHEAP. And I just don't trust an additional output season from Mateo, who again can't hit or get OB, and I'm not sure a year of IKF is anything more than a contract for Iglesias or Andrus.

Call it a gut hunch, I like Iglesias just a little more than Andrus's uptick in 2022. Their career OPS and numbers are almost the same. My gut tells me defensive history will make Iglesias the better choice.

MY SIGNING: Iglesias for $6M. ($1M bump from 2022)

OF: The Twins have needed a solid RH hitting OF for at least 2yrs now. I never bought in to Celestino to be that guy in 2022 despite his start. He just wasn't ready and Garlick is just an OK, reserve kind of option. The Twins need better than that. Larnach has flashed how good he might be healthy. And neither of his injuries are chronic, just unfortunate. With hope, luck, and surgery, Kirilloff will still be the 1B/OF/BAT we all hope he can be. But in no way am I banking on AK being 100% ready for the start of 2023. And while I think Wallner will be pretty damn good and dangerous, I would love him to get a little more AAA time just to polish his defense a little more at the least. I'm NOT saying to NOT trust one of your best prospects and his potential and run with him. What I AM saying is, when you have some questions about your OF construction and have Kepler on board and under contract, maybe you hold on to that to begin your season. Look, even as a fan, Kepler should just play a great RF, and fill in behind Buck once in a while with Gordon, but should always hit no higher than 5th, and should be in the bottom 3rd most days where he can be dangerous. But despite various thoughts he might be/should be moved, I want him in RF in my model to begin 2023. 

Who IS the RH option that makes sense? Pollock would be nice even at 35yo, but he's coming off a down year and a player option for something like $13M. So he's not available. Wil Myers has never been worth his contact. At 31yo, would he take a much smaller deal? McCutchon, even at 36yo, MIGHT offer value as RH option for one more year. But the guy I'm looking at, and the Twins should be as well, is Mitch Haniger. He's a late bloomer who's battled some injuries, but he's produced when healthy. 32yo, he's not going to get a major or long term deal. He only made $7.75M in 2022 and I believe, is arbitration 3. Even IF the Twins move Kepler, he's a perfect fit for the RH bat the OF needs. (He's even got 70 GS in CF as a sub option). And right now, there are ZERO RH OF options close to the ML level in the system. 

MY SIGNING: Mitch Haniger at $10M per 2yrs with a possible 3rd year option and buyout.

BULLPEN: Honestly, I really like the initial BP makeup for 2023. I SO WANT to just re-sign Fulmer at $5M and be done with it. I always expected some regression from Lopez because what he was doing was unsustainable. But we saw flashes and the stuff is still there. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, the improvement of Moran, Alcala back, a HOST of possible MR that includes Sands, Winder, and Henriquez and others...all of whom could still move to the rotation in time...makes me think just bringing back Fulmer, who has been VERY SOLID in his year and a half conversion to the pen a smart choice at said $5M. And then someone, Riverbrian, mentioned Hand on a 1yr $6M and I gave pause. Moran's future looks pretty bright. His reverse splits are excellent. Why not a 3rd LH option for the pen who is proven?

MY SIGNING: Hand at 1yr and $6M.  (But I'm still OK with the RH Fulmer as an option).

STARTING PITCHING: The Twins, again on paper, are just fine here. Verlander and DeGrom are not coming. Nola has a $16M team option and I don't see the Phillies not picking it up. But with ANY kind of health, a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober Is deep and pretty damn good, especially if the pen is well constructed. Varland, SWR, Winder, maybe Henriqez and Sands and a rebounding Balazovic all provide depth. But if I'm the FO/GM, I HAVE to approach 2023 just EXPECTING that something is going to go wrong, and someone is going to be hurt. I have clean books for 2023. And while there might be logical re-signs for 2024, Kepler, Maeda, Urshela, Gray, and Make might all come off the books. It's time to be brave and bold! Sign 31yo Rodon to a 3yr $25M per deal. Maybe toss in a lesser deal with a buyout 4th yr. I know he's not an ACE, but there are so few. And I know there is some injury risk. But he's coming off a pair of healthy and excellent years. Even at 28 GS and 160 IP he's a potential season changer. With clean books now and the immediate future, this veteran LH, who you've already been tied to and like, is worth the risk.

MY SIGNING: Rodon. Time to take a 3-4yr plunge. And his signing DOESN'T interrupt any pipeline migration as Ryan and Ober might be mainstays, but there's room for Varland and SWR and others to contribute and be ready for 2024.

I'm not trading if I can help it. For ONCE, I'm being aggressive and getting what I want and need. And not blowing up payroll or mortgaging the future. And YES, I'm cheating on the roster due to options and "expected" injuries that allow for some flux.

CATCHER:

Jeffers/ Narvaez

INFIELD:

Arreaez, Miranda, Polanco, Iglesias, Urshela, Gordon (OF)

OUTFIELD:

Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Haniger

I DESPISE a 12 man player roster, but this allows for a 13th man to be added immediately, such as Garlick as a RH specialist or another utility player, maybe a sudden riser in Martin, or the Twins opening the season with a 14 man pitching staff, which I'm not sure they will need. This allows a healthy AK to make the roster and give the ENTIRE roster and lineup even greater position and roster flexibility. 

STARTING PITCHING:

Rodon, Gray, Male, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober. A 6 man rotation or someone in the pen or on the IL. Again, I'm hedging bets that SOMEONE isn't ready to go.

BULLPEN:

Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Hand, Moran, Alcala, Winder, WHOEVER amongst many, including SP options who may contribute to the pen as well as the rotation during the season.

So basically, a 27 man roster cheat with 1 spot TBD between pitching or a player spot and expecting at least one injured pitcher, or sent down on option to reach 26.

I'm right about $148M at this point. Right about where I expect the average 2023 ML payroll to be, keeping the Twins also average. The entire team is improved overall, except for SS, with solid depth. And there is room for young pitching to show and $ off the books in 2024 to account for the one big SP signing. Nobody is blocked. And there is room to let go or trade both Urshela and Kepler at any time, more or less. but I'm bringing both back to start 2023 to make sure I have a lineup in place that I can count on. Kiriloff and Wallner will have a say about that. But all they do, along with the young pitching arms, is give me more room for potential trades, and more clean books in 2024 with even more young talent stepping forward.

[lecroy24fan]

The solution to your hating 12 man hitting is that the pitching limit will be 13 arms.

[Major League Ready]

Pretty much exactly what I have although I don't have Hand and I like that plan.  We all know it will be really tough to land Rodon but can hope for it.  Then, there is Kodai Senga.  I knew little of him before Nick's article but the posts in that thread have me intrigued.

[Cris E]

Rodon is not signing a 3/75 this winter. There's just too much money chasing too few studs. But I like most of the rest of your choices. I might trade for the catcher from TOR rather than go FA, and I would take a run at Correa, but I think he'll sign early for a lot of money and the rest of the dominoes will fall as you expect.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

Rodon is not signing a 3/75 this winter. There's just too much money chasing too few studs. But I like most of the rest of your choices. I might trade for the catcher from TOR rather than go FA, and I would take a run at Correa, but I think he'll sign early for a lot of money and the rest of the dominoes will fall as you expect.

I feel the $25M is applicable, but I did say 3-4yr plunge. And while I like Rodon, he was ignored before 2021 by just about everyone except Chicago and didn't have the big offers before 2022. And I get why, to some degree. But after the past couple if seasons, is everyone suddenly convinced? No? So I'm trying to weigh all of those factors together and think 4yrs might do it.

But you're right that 3yrs won't get it done. 100% with you on that.

[Shobae]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I feel the $25M is applicable, but I did say 3-4yr plunge. And while I like Rodon, he was ignored before 2021 by just about everyone except Chicago and didn't have the big offers before 2022. And I get why, to some degree. But after the past couple if seasons, is everyone suddenly convinced? No? So I'm trying to weigh all of those factors together and think 4yrs might do it.

But you're right that 3yrs won't get it done. 100% with you on that.

The thing to remember about Rodon is that he is a Boras client and this is his big pay day. He is going into his age 30 season and is coming off two seasons of excellent performance, while being in the top 50 in games started over that time. I think the most relevant comps are Gausmann and Ray who got 110/5 and 115/5 respectively. Personally I think Rodon has not only shown he can perform better than both over a larger sample (though not much) but his predictive metrics are better. So given all that I would assume that 125/5 is really the starting point for Rodon though personally I think it's not implausible to see him get around 150 million and 4-6 years. So 25M AAV could be applicable but you'll need more than 4 years for sure.