Article: Accelerating the Rebuild Timeline

[PseudoSABR]

Trading Willingham is part of the accelerated rebuild imo since he should bring back a good prospect (preferably pitching or MI). Trading Morneau isn't as necessary because I don't think he will net a significant prosepct. It does make sense to trade him if that's the only way to get Parmelee/Arcia playing time.

 

There are some that consider burn it to the ground style rebuilds as the only correct way to rebuild but I disagree. it's fine to have veterans as long as they don't block prospects and they don't have long term burdensome contracts. they also become tradeable assets (like Willingham or Perkins) but some might not be valuable to trade (Morneau, Doumit, Burton for example).

I agree that Willingham due to his age and the value he'd fetch should be the one to go. (I like your idea of getting Hansen from Pittsburg).

 

I'm not sure Parmelee is going to hit as well as Morneau the next three-four years (of course, we need to watch this play out throughout the season). We don't know that Parm can even match Morneau's 2012 production, which we consider mediocre. I think it would be prudent to offer Morneau an incentive-laden contract spanning say three years, with an option, that might go as high as ten million a year, but would have a more modest baseline. If Morneau wouldn't take that I'd definitely extend the qualifying offer.

 

The Twins have money to spend, and it's probably their preference not to spend big in free agency. I'd be disappointed if they let Morneau walk and go on to piecemeal the savings out over a couple of semi-high-profile free agents.

[Mike Sixel]

And you get a gold star. Sabathia gives me hope for Price, but let's be real. He'll get Verlander money. Nobody should get Verlander money.

 

yu Darvish

[70charger]

yu Darvish

 

It's early. But also, there seems to be a difference between the cost-controlled players hitting their prime under the draft team's control, and the foreign free agents who can strike it big right away. I'd have liked the Twins to pick up Darvish for sure, but it wasn't going to happen.

[kab21]

I agree that Willingham due to his age and the value he'd fetch should be the one to go. (I like your idea of getting Hansen from Pittsburg).

 

I'm not sure Parmelee is going to hit as well as Morneau the next three-four years (of course, we need to watch this play out throughout the season). We don't know that Parm can even match Morneau's 2012 production, which we consider mediocre. I think it would be prudent to offer Morneau an incentive-laden contract spanning say three years, with an option, that might go as high as ten million a year, but would have a more modest baseline. If Morneau wouldn't take that I'd definitely extend the qualifying offer.

 

The Twins have money to spend, and it's probably their preference not to spend big in free agency. I'd be disappointed if they let Morneau walk and go on to piecemeal the savings out over a couple of semi-high-profile free agents.

 

We will know more at the end of this season but unless he posts an OPS >.800 then there is no way you even consider spending that kind of money on Morneau. I don't have a problem bringing Morneau back at market rate though on a 2 yr deal. That gives you 3 guys (including Doumit) for 2 positions that aren't expensive and none are great and/or durable.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The issue with accelerating the rebuild is that teams that have near ready talent will likely promote them instead of trade them for someone else's talent. To accelerate, you are going to have to do it via free agency. I still see this team as having too many holes, mainly in pitching and up the middle. Meyer and Gibson will likely break with the team next year, but even in that best case scenario, those two are likely going to take some lumps.

[PseudoSABR]

We will know more at the end of this season but unless he posts an OPS >.800 then there is no way you even consider spending that kind of money on Morneau. I don't have a problem bringing Morneau back at market rate though on a 2 yr deal. That gives you 3 guys (including Doumit) for 2 positions that aren't expensive and none are great and/or durable.

The thing is that Morneau's worse years are within earshot of your benchmark. I don't think we should take that for granted. As you say, we should use this current year as primary indicator whether or not to resign Morneau.

 

We can dream that the money (from not resigning Morneau) will be spent on some superstar free agent, but I don't see it.

[kab21]

The thing is that Morneau's worse years are within earshot of your benchmark. I don't think we should take that for granted. As you say, we should use this current year as primary indicator whether or not to resign Morneau.

 

We can dream that the money (from not resigning Morneau) will be spent on some superstar free agent, but I don't see it.

 

Here's what I see: 32 yr old in his decline years that physically (strength) isn't close to his pre-concussion days.

 

.618 OPS

.773 OPS

if he is in the .750 area this year then he really isn't that valuable at 1B/DH on a multi-year contract in the 3/30 range factoring in the injury risk and inevitable further decline.

 

I don't care if they don't spend the money elsewhere I'm not interested in locking up an injury prone 1B/DH that could be OPS'ing in the low .700's. In this case you try to sign him in free agency for something like 1/5.

 

If he is able to push his OPS this year up past .800 and he looks better then they can look at bringing him back on a 2/20 deal since that is a legitimate bat at 1B/DH.