2022 Re-Tool: What Could A Competitive Roster Without Byron Buxton Look Like?

[jishfish]

After reading through the awesome community blueprint article and the various plans linked within, I wanted to take my own shot at the Twins offseason plan while taking a slightly different approach than most others. Similar to the Dramatic Roster Upheaval scenario proposed by @Nick Nelson, "we're trying to depict what it might look like if the organization says, 'We still want to compete, we still want to spend, but the current mix just isn't working.' It will involve keeping some core pieces in place, but unloading large or expiring contracts and charting a new, dramatically different course for the franchise".

With that being said, I went into things with three parameters in mind:

1. Trade Byron Buxton. This is clearly the unpopular opinion compared to the general community consensus, and if we're being honest is certainly not my preferred option. However, in the interest of applying a different though process, I wanted to take a look at what a offseason that includes a Buxton trade could look like.
2. No Qualifying Offer Free Agents. With QO's coming out the other day, I wanted to take an approach that avoids signing an QO free agents, thereby preserving the Twins 2022 draft capital/bonus pool. Not something I'm dead set on in reality, but something I wanted to keep under consideration.
3. Competitive in 2022. Though it might seem counter-intuitive to parameter #1, as a Buxton trade would initially indicate an upcoming full system rebuild, the goal of this plan is to return to being a competitive team in 2022 without Byron Buxton, while laying the groundwork for a competitive 5 year window.

With those parameters in mind, here are the moves I would make for the Twins 2022 offseason:

1. FA Signing -- Kevin Gausman (5x$25M): My first move is to sign Kevin Gausman to a 5x$25M contract, a similar deal to what Zach Wheeler got two years ago (Comparable to the contract proposed by MLB Trade Rumors). Gausman's 2021 results confirmed the shortened 2020 season was not a fluke, and at age 31 I am comfortable making a five year commitment to the former top 5 pick to anchor this rotation going forward. 
   • Backup Plan: Marcus Stroman (5x$22M)
2. FA Signing -- Sign Jon Gray (3x$14M): A man well discussed here on Twins Daily the past several years, the Rockies did me a huge favor by not extending the QO to Gray, therefore making him eligible for my plan based on the parameters laid out above. While the merits of Gray have been well discussed, I actually think there's an interesting comparison to be made to our newly signed ace (KG). In Gray we have a former top five pick who spent the first six years of his career in an organization that failed to harness his full potential. With at least one + pitch (slider for JG, Splitter for KG), a change in scenery could be the key to tapping further upside.
   • Backup Plan(s): Rodriguez ($14M -- QO), DeSclafani ($14M), Wood ($10M), Cobb ($8M), Pineda ($8M). A variety of options here, as I think each of these can be solid playoff starters when healthy.
3. Trade -- Trade Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, and Trevor Larnach to Miami for RHP Pablo Lopez and RHP Max Meyer: While I still think the idea of trading Buxton is a mistake and something the Twins should look to avoid at all costs, if it is something that's going to happen I believe it should require a return of this nature. As outlined in the amazing Offseason Handbook, the Twins and Marlins make a ton of sense as trade partners. Miami is ripe with arms both at the MLB and MiLB level, but are in desperate need of bats, making the Twins a natural match as an organization in desperate need of arms. In Pablo Lopez, the Twins are getting an established (and controllable) major league starter who posted a 10 K/9 last year, with xERA and xFIP under 3.75 the past two seasons. The one concern with Lopez is an IL trip this past year for a rotator cuff strain, but he was able to return to make one final appearance this past season, and should enter 2022 healthy. The merits of Meyer are well documented in the Offseason Handbook, and simply put, I think there's a future #1/2 starter in Meyer (not to mention he's #OneOfUs). While giving up Buxton/Arraez/Larnach probably feels like a haul, in return we would be getting two rotation building blocks for the next 4+ years. I'm of the opinion that if a trade doesn't make you a little uncomfortable with what you're giving up, there's probably no chance it would ever be accepted in the first place. Even though I hate the idea of giving up Buxton and two young/controllable bats, I think this is a trade that could give both sides exactly what they're looking for.
   • Note: Another potential option from the Marlins would be Alcantera. However, I do not believe he is somebody they would be willing to move, and I don't think there's any chance of getting both him and Meyer, so I chose what I thought was a more realistic possibility centered around two young arms.
4. FA Signing(s) -- Canha (2x$12M), Galvis (1x$3M), Brad Miller (1x$3M), Jake Diekman (1x$2.75M): To fill out most of the remaining roster spots, I am signing these players to what I think are fair market deals. In them you are getting the following:
   • Canha: Solid major league outfielder who can play all three outfield positions. Power numbers for 2019 were likely a mirage, but he's a high OBP guy that I envision splitting CF duties with Kepler.
   • Galvis: A popular cheap SS option among other blueprint ideas, I think he is a fine option for 2022 until you can see if Lewis is both healthy/ready. If not, we are likely back in the SS market in 2023.
   • Brad Miller: Love the idea of picking up Backyard Brad as a platoon guy who can play at the corners in both the infield and outfield. He's unplayable against lefties, but he has great splits against righties. Dude just seems like a ball player. (I forget which blueprint I saw that included Miller, but loved the idea and apologies for not giving credit).
   • Diekman: Wasn't great last year, but was unreal in 2020 and brings a nasty slider from the left side. Seems like a Twins kind of guy.

With these moves made, I have the Twins landing at a final salary for $135M for 2022 after filling out the rest of the roster with internal pieces. I believe this is a team that can return to being competitive in 2022 while establishing the foundation of the rotation for years to come. Gausman/Gray/Lopez/Ober/Ryan/Meyer are all controlled through at least 2025, and I believe each of those pitchers are either established as playoff caliber starters, or have the potential to be in the case of the latter three. While the lineup obviously takes a hit without Buxton/Arraez/Larnach, believe we have internal pieces in Kirilloff/Miranda/Lewis/Martin who will offset those losses in the years to come.

While I'm certainly not "all in" on 2022, just for fun I decided to look a little beyond at a potential 2023 roster, which is where I think things get really exciting. I've attached a picture for clarity's sake, but I see a roster with at least 6 quality starters (not including Maeda who I have in the bullpen as he returns from injury, or any of our current minor league prospects), as well as some salary cap to spend and not all that many holes to fill (primarily SS. Could I interest anyone in Dansby Swanson if he makes it to the market?). I believe this plan leaves the rotation in a great spot for the future, and the newfound rotation depth also gives us a surplus of potential trade chips (Duran/Balazovic/SWR/Canterino/Winder/Sands/Strotman) to go get a SS or other major piece to put things over the top.

Would love to discuss any of these moves with people! I know trading Buxton isn't the popular move, but I believe this scenario puts us in a position to compete for a World Series title in the next 5 years.

 

Thanks!

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Welcome to the forums!

BaseballTradeValues.com thinks that Lopez alone would be a value match for the Twins side of the ledger:

I'm skeptical that the Marlins would target Buxton as he's getting expensive and very close to free agency, but they do have the starting pitcher depth to make a splash. Perhaps not enough depth to add Meyer to the deal, though, at least not without another piece coming back from Minnesota (Garver?).

[Brandon]

Interesting trade but I think one of the starters we get will be short term.  If you acquire 2 long term starters and we sign 2 long term starters and we have Ober and Ryan and 5 more starters in AA and AAA we will want some turnover to low cost options.  What do you think? Ir will we trade several of our pitching prospects instead?

[jishfish]

3 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Welcome to the forums!

BaseballTradeValues.com thinks that Lopez alone would be a value match for the Twins side of the ledger:

I'm skeptical that the Marlins would target Buxton as he's getting expensive and very close to free agency, but they do have the starting pitcher depth to make a splash. Perhaps not enough depth to add Meyer to the deal, though, at least not without another piece coming back from Minnesota (Garver?).

Thank you!

Yes, I did see that it was a slightly lopsided trade according to BaseballTradeValue.com when I was running through possibilities. I'm of the opinion that Buxton and Larnach are both relatively undervalued there, although I would probably consider Meyer undervalued as well. Ultimately I went with more of a "gut feel" trade versus trying to even things out based on value. Can certainly see Marlins balking on paying up for Buxton, but thought it was at least an interesting idea to consider as they certainly need help in CF. Garver was also someone I strongly considered and could certainly see him being someone the Marlins value.

[jishfish]

18 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Interesting trade but I think one of the starters we get will be short term.  If you acquire 2 long term starters and we sign 2 long term starters and we have Ober and Ryan and 5 more starters in AA and AAA we will want some turnover to low cost options.  What do you think? Ir will we trade several of our pitching prospects instead?

I can certainly see this FO not wanting to lock itself into multiple long term deals. Perhaps a more realistic scenario would be signing Pineda to another 1 or 2 year deal instead of a longer 3/4 year deal for Gray.

While I did like what I saw from Ober/Ryan last year, I wouldn't consider either to be a lock to be a long term #3 or better pitcher. Ultimately I think we should be gathering as many young/controllable arms as possible, in hopes that 2-3 end up panning out into top 3 rotation pieces. Another 1-2 will likely end up in the bullpen (I could see that being a very realistic possibility for Canterino and Duran), and if we end up with a logjam of young pitchers, those could be great pieces to potentially package to go get a star shortstop or ace pitcher at the deadline. We saw last year that a lot of these arms are not guaranteed to stay healthy, which just makes me hesitant to bank on future rotation spots being filled by our current AA and AAA guys.

Definitely can understand the issue you are pointing out though. This definitely isn't the scenario that I think is most likely for this FO to pursue imo!

[LA Vikes Fan]

Really interesting ideas. I wouldn't be unhappy if this plan came to fruition. I do think the real problem is that Miami isn't going to want to pay Buxton long term any more than the Twins, so I don't see them biting on a deal with Buxton as the centerpiece. How about using the same trade assets without Buxton, substituting in Garver, and only getting Lopez in return? Then sign Buxton for $15-17m a year plus incentives, and not sign Canha? Rough equivalency in costs by not having Canha's projected $12m and Garver's $5.6m gone. Buxton plays CF, Kepler RF, and Kiriloff plays LF with Celestino as the 4th OF. Sano stays at 1B because we need to leave the DH spot open for Donaldson 50-60 games a year. We rotate guys thru the Dh when Doanldson isn't there opening up SBs for Miranda and Rooker or Contreras as 5th OF. Miranda plays 3B when Donaldson DHs or sits (80 games a year) and Gordon is the IF/OF UTL. Rotation is Gausman/Lopez/Gray/Ober/Ryan with Winder, Dobnak, Strotman, etc. as depth. Jeffers and Rotvedt handle the catching. Yes, less hitting down the order at catcher and SS, but a top 6 of Buxton, Polanco, Kiriloff, Donaldson, Kepler, and Sano isn't bad and you hope that one of Miranda, Rooker, Contreras, Gordon breaks out to hit 7th ( or even better hit 5th with Kepler hitting 7th). C and SS bringing up the rear. Much better pitching to help make up for the downgrade in the batting order. Even better if they'd prefer Jeffers and we keep Garver even if we have to add in a AA non-pitching prospect like Spencer Steer or de la Trinidad,, although that puts us in the market for a catcher for if/when Garver gets hurt (Tomas Tellis?).  

Anyway, I like the thought process. Definitely something there. 

  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Oh Noooo. Bad vibes here. I need to go to my happy place. I will not consider this possibility. I refuse to consider this possibility. It will not happen. I think I can, I think I can. I think I can.  SIGN BUCK.