Minorleagueball Mock Draft Version Uno

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Mr.Sickels and Mr.Garrioch over at minorleagueball.com did their first mock draft a few days ago and it is a pretty interesting read. Link below:

2013 MLB Mock Draft Version One - Minor League Ball

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Spoiler alert! Sickels, who is a Twins fan, has them taking a HS bat for a second year in a row. While I personally don't love the pick at 4 I can easily see the first three picks going something like this. Astros taking a HS player who goes under slot, Theo taking Appel, and the Rockies going an advanced college hitter. Leaves the Twins with a ton of interesting options.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have a tough time believing the Twins would do that. I'm not seeing how this catcher would be that much better than the pitching options they desparately need.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I don't see it going down that way either; though, at this point, no one knows. I would be less inclined to believe that Frazier would give the Astros the discount that Correa did, but Frazier would be a good pick.

 

In my opinion, the Twins going to the podium with those choices would be ideal. And if they did, Denney wouldn't be my choice.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, if Appel was the only pitcher off the board, I'd be thrilled.

[Twins Twerp]

The track record of drafting high school catchers is really bad in all the majors (minus hof joe mauer). The twins will go with a college pitcher because they need pitching and this draft has a few grat college pitchers. Also, as many on this site love to state: the twins love drafting low risk players with low floors. This draft will have 3 to 5 college pitchers who match this philosophy. They would jump to draft manea or gray.

[Brad Swanson]

Denney's legit. I'd be very comfortable if the Twins go this route. Do the Twins really need pitching more than a power-hitting, good-glove catcher? Four of the Twins' top ten prospects are starters. Add Hendriks, Diamond and Worley, and the starting pitching depth is there. The Twins (along with a lot of other teams) do not have a legit catching prospect. Denney could be special.

 

Then again, I always prefer upside and I don't like to play it safe in the draft. Just my personal preference, I can totally understand taking a college pitcher.

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While Denny has the talent to go in the number 4 spot I just can't see it with Gray, Manaea, or Stanek still there. If they wanted a mauer replacement they would have gone zunio under slot last year. It is an interesting take on the Twins pick because I never thought of him there.

 

As for Frazier, while I don't see going for ~3m under slot like Correa, drafting #1 give the team a lot of leverage with the set slot values.

[Brad Swanson]

It might be a moot point, regarding Denney. I actually think the Astros take him 1-1. Huge upside, up-the-middle player and likely will sign for less. I really doubt they take Frazier. I remember Kevin Goldstein didn't seem too impressed with raw, toolsy outfielders, at least that was my impression from the podcasts.

[ThePuck]

I have a tough time believing the Twins would do that. I'm not seeing how this catcher would be that much better than the pitching options they desparately need.

 

I have zero problem believing they'd do that. Though I'd guess it'd be Meadows or Frazier

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I could definitely see Denny, or meadows for that matter, go #1 at some sort of discount. What the Astros do will be very interesting because it directly effects the twins.

 

At 4 the twins are in an interesting spot. My vote currently is Bryant or gray if they are there. I know people hate the idea of not taking a pitcher but this draft is deep in them. There are going to be some solid LHPers in the second round.

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I actually think doing a mock like this would be fun. Alternating picks to keep things interesting. I think minorleagueball did a community mock which was pretty awesome last year.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

My vote currently is Bryant or gray if they are there..

 

I asked someone with direct involvement of this situation who had more power, Sano or Bryant. Here's the response I got, "Good question... Sano has more raw power now and is 2 years younger. Bryant has always had real good loft power. I would argue Aaron Judge has more raw power/bat strength than Bryant, he's just not as good of hitter as Bryant."

 

He also believe Bryant has 50/50 chance to stick at 3B, but will most likely end up at 1B.

 

Personally, I like the idea of Bryant peppering the left field bleachers... but I'd prefer a pitcher, all things being equal.

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All being equal I think we all prefer a college pitcher at 4. Lots of guys are looking like good options but just as fast as they can rise they can fall. Hopefully they all keep rising!

 

Back to Bryant. While I think he isn't a 75/80 power Guy like Sano he does have plenty of power with an advanced hit tool. Even though Bryant is one of my favorites he is going to be a hard sell at 4 if he can stick to 3rd.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Talked to Twins source on Denney: definite 1st rounder, but not likely someone the Twins will take at four (right now).

 

There was also a mention in a thread a while ago about Chris Rivera - Garrioch's original pick to go #1 - not viewed as a top 5 rounder.

[ericchri]

If they wanted a mauer replacement they would have gone zunio under slot last year.

 

I think the difference would be Zunino would have been a year or two away from the majors, where the Twins expect Mauer to be catching for them for at least another 4-5 years. I know next to nothing about any of these draft picks, but the notion of picking a HS catcher makes a little more sense to me than an advanced college catcher, because our catching is set at the moment, meaning the HS catcher has time to develop and won't get held up while Mauer is still there.

 

But as I said, I don't have any other knowledge of these guys, and I don't get too concerned about draft choices in baseball. Unlike football or basketball where you're expecting them to contribute immediately, most baseball draftees take a year or two at least, even when they played in college. In two years our needs may look a little different. Of course, "You can never have enough pitching."

[nicksaviking]

Aboslutely NO on a HS catcher with the number 4 pick. Mauer was the first overall pick in 2001. Trivia question: who is the next best HS catcher taken in the 1st round since?

 

Answer: Trick question. The best HS catcher taken since was Neil Walker who was moved to 2B. The best catcher still catching is a tie between Devin Mesoraco and Hank Conger who have combined to do jack sqaut thus far at the MLB level.

 

HS catchers may have the highest bust rate of any postion in the draft. I suspect they have so much to learn defensively and about calling a game that their offensive development gets stunted. Or the other way around. Either way, to many things can and do go wrong with them. Hard pass please.

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Thanks for the inside information Jeremy. It is always much appreciated.

 

Matt said when he did that mock draft, before the college/HS season started, that Rivera was more of a placeholder than anything. Just trying to say the Astros are taking a guy they can get under slot. Why he picked Rivera instead of other HS guys I have no idea.

[garrioch13]

The track record of drafting high school catchers is really bad in all the majors (minus hof joe mauer). The twins will go with a college pitcher because they need pitching and this draft has a few grat college pitchers. Also, as many on this site love to state: the twins love drafting low risk players with low floors. This draft will have 3 to 5 college pitchers who match this philosophy. They would jump to draft manea or gray.

 

 

[h=2]That is true but not to the point where you should be avoiding the elite. They typically take 5 years to make it to the majors. Since 2007 there have been 11. Mesoraco and D’arnaud are the best from ’07. Swihart, Coulter and Trahan are the best of the rest. Of guys who should be in the majors, Max Sapp and Jon Poterson missed but Hank Conger, Brandon Snyder, Neil Walker, Daric Barton, Saltalamachia, Joe Mauer and Jeff Mathis round out the list to 2001. The odds of a 1st round catcher making the majors are quite good barring injury. Their impact level is usually the question. Denney has the bat to be an impact whether he sticks behind the dish or not. He is a top 15 pick even if he was an outfielder.[/h]

[garrioch13]

But as I said, I don't have any other knowledge of these guys, and I don't get too concerned about draft choices in baseball. Unlike football or basketball where you're expecting them to contribute immediately, most baseball draftees take a year or two at least, even when they played in college. In two years our needs may look a little different. Of course, "You can never have enough pitching."

 

Amazingly after 4 years, a similar number of high round draft picks are playing in the majors whether it be NFL or MLB. I didn't do the NFL research. I found that on a different site but I was surprised at the number of wash outs in the NFL.

[garrioch13]

Aboslutely NO on a HS catcher with the number 4 pick. Mauer was the first overall pick in 2001. Trivia question: who is the next best HS catcher taken in the 1st round since?

 

Answer: Trick question. The best HS catcher taken since was Neil Walker who was moved to 2B. The best catcher still catching is a tie between Devin Mesoraco and Hank Conger who have combined to do jack sqaut thus far at the MLB level.

 

HS catchers may have the highest bust rate of any postion in the draft. I suspect they have so much to learn defensively and about calling a game that their offensive development gets stunted. Or the other way around. Either way, to many things can and do go wrong with them. Hard pass please.

 

Wil Myers was a catcher in HS. Bryce Harper was a catcher in HS. Denney may not be a catcher if his bat is that good.

[garrioch13]

Talked to Twins source on Denney: definite 1st rounder, but not likely someone the Twins will take at four (right now).

 

There was also a mention in a thread a while ago about Chris Rivera - Garrioch's original pick to go #1 - not viewed as a top 5 rounder.

 

Thanks for the reminder Jeremy. Like I didn't get kicked around enough for that already. If I would have put Crawford or Mercado there, no one would have said much. The point was they might go down the board for signability. Perfect Game has him at #29 for the high school crop. Allan Simpson at PG has him at #80 for the draft. Right now I have him in the 50's. If they have him in the 6th or later, I'd love to see who they have in the 140-160 range. They clearly rank college players ahead of prep products later in the draft and I'm the exact opposite.

[Seth Stohs]

Matt, I'm shocked that we don't see Manaea listed in the 1st round. Is that even possible, that he could miss the first round?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought he fell to 10 or 11 in their mock... There were some questions on him more recently while Anderson, Gray, and Appel continue to impress. Give all of those guys have #1 upsides and probably a floor (baring injury) of a 3 or so, I find it tough to believe that the Twins won't take one of them... Then again, they took Buxton last year, so what do I know.

[garrioch13]

Matt, I'm shocked that we don't see Manaea listed in the 1st round. Is that even possible, that he could miss the first round?

 

He went 12 to Seattle. He still could go top 5.

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I think the Twins showed last year they going to take the top player on their board regardless of position. Even if they pass on an arm in the first round there are plenty of solid arms that will be around in the second round and later. While this is considered a weak draft overall there is a butt load of second tier college arms and HS LHPers.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Thanks for the reminder Jeremy. Like I didn't get kicked around enough for that already.

 

There's no way I let you forget that! I got your point then and I get it now. The only reason he was brought up is because my Twins guys brought him up when I told him I saw Denney going #4 to the Twins. He said something along the lines of "I saw a mock where we were taking Rivera at #4... he's a good player, but we view him as a 6th rounder right now." His point was... don't put stock into early mock drafts. (I agree, but they're like train wrecks...)

 

Your placing him at #1 got people talking about him in the same breath as Crawford and Mercado. (You should probably call him and be his adviser, you drove his hype-machine!)

[garrioch13]

Your placing him at #1 got people talking about him in the same breath as Crawford and Mercado. (You should probably call him and be his adviser, you drove his hype-machine!)

 

 

Haha..it's teaching me to weigh what I say more, for sure. The thing is, I like him in the same way I like any future 2B prospect and with short stops, you don't know who is going to end up one. Crawford may move to 2B and that takes away a lot of his advantage but he has more potential with the bat. Mercado may be another Dee Gordon but is that really any better than Christian Colon. (Gordon=Mercado, Rivera=Colon in this example) I don't see a 5 round gap that is for sure.