Article: Looking Back: 2008 Minnesota Twins Draft

[bird]

it was a good discussion, mike. no apologies required. I appreciate your civility.

[Mike Sixel]

I promise, Seth, next time I'll concentrate just on the year....and NOT bring this up.....Indeed, I am kind of curious to look at a few other teams to see how they really do, and see how they are really built....my assumptions might just be off, would not surprise me. So if anything, you've given me another reason to spend time on the interwebs....

 

BW, glad to read.

[Loosey]

My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

[ThePuck]

My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

 

Or they just draft a toolsy H School OF...

[Seth Stohs]

My feeling has always been the Twins try to get the best value out of their 1st round picks. Instead of shooting for the stars and going all in on a high school pitching prospect that has a 50/50 chance of either bombing out or becoming a super star, they take the "safer" college pitcher with less upside but only a 25% of being a complete bust but a 75% of being a #3 starter. Whether this is right or wrong I don't know, I do know however that a team full of #3 starters isn't going to win many World Series. . . .

 

This was actually one of the premises that the pundits lauded the A's with from Moneyball.

[Kwak]

Yes, The Rays and A's are pretty good at it too, but remember, they've both had extended cycles of subpar MLB results and benefitted hugely by having a favrable draft order.

 

In this year's draft, the pundits say there are MAYBE a half-dozen blue chip prospects. The third-best pitcher is touted as a posible #2-3 starter in MLB. Last year was even worse. So, let's assume for a moment that the average draft contains 10 blue-chippers. A team that has had a top ten pick most years for a decade SHOULD be "pretty good at it", don't you think?

 

The A's have had a great deal of success by trading high-quality SPs for multiple SPs. They wind up with a higher number of quality pitchers (who are also younger and haven't yet been injured) that coincidentily have a much lower salary. It seems to me that these guys don't spend much time in the minors before being promoted to the ML (as opposed to the Twins).

[Han Joelo]

I'm not going to whitewash the past, but give the Twins some credit for drafting HS arms Berrios and Boyd with high picks.

 

As for Bard, Melatokis, and Chargois (No-Run BMC), if even one of them develops into a viable starter, I'd be happy, especially if the other two made it as relievers. Imagine if all three were to make it as starter: Someone would write a book about how the Twins revolutionized draft strategy

[Han Joelo]

Hudson: OK. Mulder was great in that he soon broke down and Haren was a stud. But they didn't get much for Haren or Gonzalez. The Andrew Bailey deal worked out pretty good. Not resigning Zito (like they had a chance) was smart. However, considering what he yielded in free agent dollars, how much could they have reaped by sticking to their "philosophy" and trading him for prospects?

 

The A's have had a great deal of success by trading high-quality SPs for multiple SPs. They wind up with a higher number of quality pitchers (who are also younger and haven't yet been injured) that coincidentily have a much lower salary. It seems to me that these guys don't spend much time in the minors before being promoted to the ML (as opposed to the Twins).

[The Wise One]

I'm not saying the Rays and A's hit on every single pitcher they take, that would be impossible.

I'm saying those 2 organizations hit a lot more than most, so I have a hard time believing that it is purely luck. Clearly there is something those 2 organizations are doing better when it comes to scouting and/or developing pitchers outside of the first couple rounds.

Outside o

f the first round, what pitcher other than Leake and Baily has the Oakland braintrust drafted in the later rounds that panned out. You have to go all of the way back to 1998. Is that the track record you want to emulate? They have been very good at trading for prospects and first round pick ups.

Tampa Bay can draft but not pay for players. Their trades have not worked out so well. Every organization does some things well, some not.

[Mr. Brooks]

Outside o

f the first round, what pitcher other than Leake and Baily has the Oakland braintrust drafted in the later rounds that panned out. You have to go all of the way back to 1998. Is that the track record you want to emulate? They have been very good at trading for prospects and first round pick ups.

Tampa Bay can draft but not pay for players. Their trades have not worked out so well. Every organization does some things well, some not.

 

I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.

Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.

A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder

Dan Straily was a 24th rounder

Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder

Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder

Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

 

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

[Kwak]

I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.

Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.

A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder

Dan Straily was a 24th rounder

Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder

Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder

Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

 

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

 

Likely more than those drafted in the first round--because the Twins have had precious little success with pitchers selected in the first round.

[The Wise One]

I'm not saying they hit HR's with those picks, but they at least get some value out of them.

Dallas Braden gave them 4.5 wins above replacement from the 24th round, and would have given them more if not for injuries.

A.J. Griffin was a 13th rounder

Dan Straily was a 24th rounder

Trevor Cahill was a 2nd rounder

Dan Haren was a 2nd rounder

Rich Harden was a 13th rounder

 

Now how many starting pitchers have the Twins drafted outside of the first round over the last several years that have given them any value?

 

Haren was a second rounder of the St Louis Cardinals. Strailey and Griffin have pitched less than a season each. Slowey was good for a season, Duensing came in and was good for a season as a starter. Cahill had numbers in his first years similar to Blackburn's. Oakland was wiser than the Twins. Dallas Braden injuries costing him. Kyle Gibson without the injury. That leaves Harden and Scott Baker. It is all how you want to twist things.

[The Wise One]

Oh, Swarzak even had a positive WAR a year when he was a starter for half a season

[Mr. Brooks]

Oh, Swarzak even had a positive WAR a year when he was a starter for half a season

 

I wasnt talking about positive WAR for a season, or part of a season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Haren was a second rounder of the St Louis Cardinals. Strailey and Griffin have pitched less than a season each. Slowey was good for a season, Duensing came in and was good for a season as a starter. Cahill had numbers in his first years similar to Blackburn's. Oakland was wiser than the Twins. Dallas Braden injuries costing him. Kyle Gibson without the injury. That leaves Harden and Scott Baker. It is all how you want to twist things.

 

You are eliminating Cahill, why?

He has put up 10 WAR over 4 seasons. He's a solid starter, not comparable to Blackburn at all.

[righty8383]

Likely more than those drafted in the first round--because the Twins have had precious little success with pitchers selected in the first round.

 

Adam Johnson was the biggest bust for sure. Garza was a solid pick. The jury is still out on Gibson and even Wimmers.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Or, did they get lucky with guys like Matt Moore in the 8th round? I don't know the answer to that.

 

Maybe it's been mentioned, but getting lucky with Matt Moore is a great thing for Twins fans to talk about. His signing scout was... (drumroll)... Jack Powell, who was the signing scout for Byron Buxton and Luke Bard and is out there looking for the next Matt Moore... only this time he'll be wearing TWINS on his chest.

[The Wise One]

You are eliminating Cahill, why?

He has put up 10 WAR over 4 seasons. He's a solid starter, not comparable to Blackburn at all.

Fangraphs has Cahill as a career 8.8 and a better pitcher away from Oakland. Cahills 3 years in Oakland he totaled 5.5, which is less than Blackburn did..

[Mr. Brooks]

Fangraphs has Cahill as a career 8.8 and a better pitcher away from Oakland. Cahills 3 years in Oakland he totaled 5.5, which is less than Blackburn did..

 

Why are we only counting Cahills first 3 years?

The point was that the A's are good at finding at developing pitching in the later rounds. Where a guy pitches 4 or more years down the road doesnt change the fact that he was drafted and developed by the A's.

Or could it be that is the line at which Blackburn's predictable regression to what he really was all along began, so you didnt want to include year 4?

[cmb0252]

I think looking at this draft and the 2009/2010 drafts it clearly shows why we are struggling now. Hunt, guts, Gibson, and wimmers all haven't given us any war on the big league level for different reasons. While it is still too early to call the 2009/2010, or even the 2008, drafts a bust...when you draft college arms who you expect to make it to the bigs fast and don't, you are left with a lot of holes.

 

Obviously Gibson and Wimmers still have time but if they didn't need TJs we wouldn't be arguing about the pitching staff as much. But, injuries happen and it is just part of the game. Hopefully Hicks, Herm, and Tonk turn this draft class around this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think looking at this draft and the 2009/2010 drafts it clearly shows why we are struggling now. Hunt, guts, Gibson, and wimmers all haven't given us any war on the big league level for different reasons. While it is still too early to call the 2009/2010, or even the 2008, drafts a bust...when you draft college arms who you expect to make it to the bigs fast and don't, you are left with a lot of holes.

 

Obviously Gibson and Wimmers still have time but if they didn't need TJs we wouldn't be arguing about the pitching staff as much. But, injuries happen and it is just part of the game. Hopefully Hicks, Herm, and Tonk turn this draft class around this year.

 

Wimmers was a disaster before the TJ. Remember they had to keep him in extended ST because he got a case of the Knoblauchs?

[bird]

Is it possible Wimmers was pitching hurt for a few stints there? Earlier, he was lights out for a while too. Calling him a "disaster" is maybe a bit harsh.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is it possible Wimmers was pitching hurt for a few stints there? Earlier, he was lights out for a while too. Calling him a "disaster" is maybe a bit harsh.

 

Okay, disaster might be harsh. But it wasnt good, whatever you want to call it.

No, he wasnt hurt at that time. That was well before the injury.

[The Wise One]

I wasnt talking about positive WAR for a season, or part of a season.

 

If you don't count half a season then Strailey and Griffin are not included in being a great find in the late rounds as they have not even pitched complete season's. If one pays attention there have been many pitchers that have half seasons of great sucess then never to reach more than mediocrity again. So if part seasons don't count the A's have found Cahill and Harden after the first round and The Twins have found Baker and a bunch of medocre pitchers who have spent time in the starting rotation with varing degrees of sucess.

[The Wise One]

Wimmers was a disaster before the TJ. Remember they had to keep him in extended ST because he got a case of the Knoblauchs?

 

Are you aware that the UCL inury is a use injury and not a trauma injury. As the use injury gets worse , performance can suffer.

[The Wise One]

Why are we only counting Cahills first 3 years?

The point was that the A's are good at finding at developing pitching in the later rounds. Where a guy pitches 4 or more years down the road doesnt change the fact that he was drafted and developed by the A's.

Or could it be that is the line at which Blackburn's predictable regression to what he really was all along began, so you didnt want to include year 4?

 

Is Blackburn's regression due due a change in mechanics due to pain in the elbow from the chips?

[Mr. Brooks]

Are you aware that the UCL inury is a use injury and not a trauma injury. As the use injury gets worse , performance can suffer.

 

As far as i'm aware, the control issues were well before the injury, and was not related to it.

If you have a link suggesting otherwise I would be happy to be wrong (because I actually like the Wimmers pick and hope we get some value from him), but it would be the first I have seen of it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is Blackburn's regression due due a change in mechanics due to pain in the elbow from the chips?

 

I'm not sure where you are going with this?

Are you suggesting that Blackburn wasnt terrible in '10 and '11, or are you suggesting that he was pitching with elbow pain for 3 full years?

[Mr. Brooks]

If you don't count half a season then Strailey and Griffin are not included in being a great find in the late rounds as they have not even pitched complete season's. If one pays attention there have been many pitchers that have half seasons of great sucess then never to reach more than mediocrity again. So if part seasons don't count the A's have found Cahill and Harden after the first round and The Twins have found Baker and a bunch of medocre pitchers who have spent time in the starting rotation with varing degrees of sucess.

 

Dallas Braden was a good find. The fact he had injuries doesnt change that.

To find 4.5 WAR from that round is good value, even if he never plays again.

 

Griffin and Straily have been successful so far, so until they show otherwise, I'll put them in the good value category. If they prove to be flukes, I'll move them out of that category at that time.

We can only go with the information we have now, we cant attempt to predict the future.

[The Wise One]

As far as i'm aware, the control issues were well before the injury, and was not related to it.

If you have a link suggesting otherwise I would be happy to be wrong (because I actually like the Wimmers pick and hope we get some value from him), but it would be the first I have seen of it.

 

Are you sure you understand the concept of a use injury. How do you know when the UCL starts to deteriorate and have an effect on the pitching? In Wimmers case please tell me how you would know?