Front Page: Can the Twins Become the New Astros? Part 1

[Mike Sixel]

Fun fact: Houston has two prospects to which MLB Pipeline gives an overall value of 50 or more.

 

The Twins have 13 of these prospects today.

Of course, Houston just graduated future star Alvarez. But I don't get the point. Isn't it easier to draft if you aren't that good, so shouldn't the twins have more top prospects? Aren't they in a position to trade for prospects going into this last year, not trade from prospects? If they didn't have a lot more that would be bad. If they emulate Houston, they will trade at least eight of those players in the next two years.... So, about the same number....

[bird]

 

Of course, Houston just graduated future star Alvarez. But I don't get the point. Isn't it easier to draft if you aren't that good, so shouldn't the twins have more top prospects? Aren't they in a position to trade for prospects going into this last year, not trade from prospects? If they didn't have a lot more that would be bad. If they emulate Houston, they will trade at least eight of those players in the next two years.... So, about the same number....

 

 

Correction: Yordan Alvarez was acquired via trade from the Dodgers for former 1st rounder Josh Friggin' Fields, an Astro's Kohl Stewart-like draft dud. He was subsequently released by the Dodgers, Brewers, and Rangers.

 

You need to have some historical context to understand why the Astros have only 15 prospects with a 45 FV and the Twins have 28 of them, but it starts with the unassailable fact that, as Houston was trying to add a "final piece" or two coming off of another 100 win season, the 78-win Twins were still scrambling to build up prospect capital AND MLB talent. Falvey was busy accumulating prospect talent, which we began to see (Smeltzer and Alcala for example). The Astros were ready to USE prospect capital. They smartly traded away good but not great surplus prospects like Alcala, Celestino, Bukauskas, and Beer. Oh, and Josh Friggin' Field.

 

The Twins have plenty of good prospects as a result of those favorable draft postions, Mike. I don't know what you'd expect! Royce Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach...6 prospects among the Top 100? In fact, they've been exceptional at building prospect value. They have 17 starting pitching prospects that Fangraphs says are 40FV guys or better. The White Sox, with similar or better draft order? They have 7 of them.

 

The Twins don't have just a few more high-quality prospects than Houston. Again: Houston has 2 guys at 50FV, the Twins 13. Houston has 15 guys at 45 FV or better, the Twins 28.

 

So now do you get the point? They ARE emulating Houston, and may actually be BETTER at things in a couple of ways. They've simply been at different stages. Until this off-season.

 

We'll see, but I personally believe they have zero qualms about wise decisions to trade from their impressive pipeline. I hope they DO emulate Houston and retain Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Graterol, and Duran, talent they NEED. Or to pull the trigger on the right "expensive" FA opportunity. Or to trade a surplus player from the 26-man. Because finally, they're in decent shape in all three ways.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Lavine has mentioned in the past and eludes to it here. They were aware of Pressly’s capability but struggled with execution.

No way of knowing what that meant exactly but I have noticed a new pitching coach and manager since the Presley trade. Perhaps to improve execution?

The team’s execution, you say?

 

I’m in favor of that.

 

 

h/t, football coach John McKay

[Platoon]

One by one... the old school operations are falling by the wayside.

But here’s the thing. It’ll be a short window for the Twins who were somewhat late to the party but not as late as others. We will enjoy the fruits of these efforts for a little while as the dinosaurs die off.

Eventually everybody will be in the same place in the future and a new thing will have to arrive to separate a brand new future new breed from the pack.

The Orioles new GM is from the Astros and they will follow the Astros path. The Giants have hired from the Dodgers.

Well once the last Trogosaurus has been turned into crude oil, everyone really won't be in the same place. The "haves" will be more likely to add depth and talent to their teams via free agency and expensive extensions. The "have nots" will not. While everyone may be in the same place in the future, they may not be able to remain there.