Ryan removes "Interim" label from his title

PseudoSABR · October 6, 2012

Oh, we need more Joe Mauer's. Well, there you go.

davesaxton · October 6, 2012

I have to say, I'm a lot younger then most of the posters on this site. However, I am ashamed to be lumped into the same category as a "fan". I was 5 when the Twins won in '89. I stayed up way past my bed time in '91 to watch Puck pick a homerun out of the air against the plexy in the Dome. How can you call yourselves "fans when all most of you do is whine and complain about every tiny little aspect of the team you are supposed to love, for better or worse? Yes, they suck. Yes, they sucked last year too. Yes, they play in a piss poor division. But, this is baseball. This is a love afair with a sport that all of us grew up with. I never got to see The Killer and Carew. But I did get Puck, Hreby, and yes, even Chuck when he was an all-star Twin. This team, My team, will come back to the top of this league. But right now, they, like so many other teams in this league are at a point when they need to shut down and reload what made them great in the first place. Look at the Nats. how many years did they suck before they exploded back onto the radar? The Twins will make it back. TR is a good GM, he is smart and he has been at this long enough to not make knee-jerk reactions. He gave the coaches a year to turn things around, and when they failed, he sent a message. Now, Gardy and Andy know that they are on the block, and they had better do it better, and do it right or they are next. It shows the players that the FO is not going to sit back and let years like this build up. They are going to do what they need to do to get this team back to the top. How about we stop bickering over a lost season, that we all knew was coming, and focus on the good things that have come out of this train wreck. Have Faith, or please don't call yourselves fans, that just makes the rest of us look bad.

Respectfully,

SPC David Saxton

US Army

Afghanistan

Go Twins!

Kobs · October 6, 2012

I have to say, I'm a lot younger then most of the posters on this site. However, I am ashamed to be lumped into the same category as a "fan". I was 5 when the Twins won in '89. I stayed up way past my bed time in '91 to watch Puck pick a homerun out of the air against the plexy in the Dome. How can you call yourselves "fans when all most of you do is whine and complain about every tiny little aspect of the team you are supposed to love, for better or worse? Yes, they suck. Yes, they sucked last year too. Yes, they play in a piss poor division. But, this is baseball. This is a love afair with a sport that all of us grew up with. I never got to see The Killer and Carew. But I did get Puck, Hreby, and yes, even Chuck when he was an all-star Twin. This team, My team, will come back to the top of this league. But right now, they, like so many other teams in this league are at a point when they need to shut down and reload what made them great in the first place. Look at the Nats. how many years did they suck before they exploded back onto the radar? The Twins will make it back. TR is a good GM, he is smart and he has been at this long enough to not make knee-jerk reactions. He gave the coaches a year to turn things around, and when they failed, he sent a message. Now, Gardy and Andy know that they are on the block, and they had better do it better, and do it right or they are next. It shows the players that the FO is not going to sit back and let years like this build up. They are going to do what they need to do to get this team back to the top. How about we stop bickering over a lost season, that we all knew was coming, and focus on the good things that have come out of this train wreck. Have Faith, or please don't call yourselves fans, that just makes the rest of us look bad.

Respectfully,
SPC David Saxton
US Army
Afghanistan

Go Twins!

Your definition of being a fan is not my definition of being a fan, and I'd thank you not to try to impose your definition on me.

Kobs · October 6, 2012

If the Twins were to replicate the last six years of call ups with exact duplicates of those players over the next six years, I'd take the over at 550 losses.

jokin · October 7, 2012

I guess your thoughts on Ryan's ability should hinge on how responsible he was for the awful BS era. the 90's were awful and despite losing in the playoffs the 2000's were very good for a team on a shoestring budget. At that time many wondered what Ryan could do with an adequate budget. He now has a budget to work with and he made two outstanding FA pickups last season.

It might also too early to call the drafting and developing horrific. The horrific years of the draft (2004-2009) include Plouffe, Perkins, Slowey, Garza, Duensing, Parmelee, Hicks, Benson, Revere and Gibson. they made an awful trade with Garza but they still drafted and developed him. It's also worth pointing out that once you get outside of the top the draft is largely hit and miss and that is where the Twins drafted for the entire decade.

Wow, that list is your argument for maintaining the status quo? They ran off Garza, Perkins was basically ready to be run off when he failed to develop as a starter and they stumbled on him as an effective bullpen option with the injury collapses of Nathan and Capps, every other pitcher on this list is:

a has-been who was also run off-
a "I don't know how to use a lefty who can only get out lefties"- and-
a wish, a hope and a prayer that he will ever pan out as anything above a #4-5 starter.

The jury is still out on every single one of the position players you mention, as well- not one "can't-miss" guy among them.

While the two FA pickups worked out, they were replacements for the losses of 4 players- Thome, Cuddyer, Young and Kubel. The two FAs also had career years in 2012, can they do it again or should they have been flipped so that for once, the Twins could be sellers when their value was at its highest?

perhaps you missed what I wrote the first time. How much blame should ryan get during BS's time as GM? Absolutely awful decisions were and he was still in the FO but I don't how much control/input he had. I also said it might be too early to tell about the horrific drafting and development the Twins had from '04-'09. I'm guessing you don't really understand what horrific means. They haven't had a lot of success from the draft recently but they are still getting solid ballplayers.

I'm not sure how you can be critical of last year's offseason. they picked up better ballplayers at half the cost and got 3 extra draft picks. I think that is a pretty outstanding job. I'm also not sure I would call them career years. willingham has a .845 career OPS and this year he had a .890 OPS. Doumit had a .777 OPS this year and a .771 career OPS.

Ryan has made bad decisions (Capps definitely) and I'll criticize him but I think you are being ridiculous.

I know what the term horrific means and didn't use that term, I merely stated that the names you put up is an embarrassing defense for maintaining the status quo. To reiterate, they ran off Garza and Slowey and Perkins was about to be the next one- from a team with no pitching in the pipeline behind them!

The ridiculousness in this subject is pretending that the mismanagement since 2004 didn't really occur and that everything will be just fine once we just give a little more time to maintaining the status quo thinking for the Twins' ship to be righted. This team, because of the mismanagment starting at the close of the first Ryan era and throughout the BS era, should be in major rebuild mode. Instead, Ryan Era Redux is trying to have it both ways- contender and rebuilder- and that never works.

Regarding the FA pickups. I wasn't critical about them in particular. At least one of the sandwich picks looks like it might work out great. The FAs were good pickups- just misguided thinking in their worth to the team, given the Twins' predicament- clearly a rebuilder, not a contender. Let's see their numbers: Willingham, 34 years old in 2013. Career highs in HR, 2B, SLG, RBI, BB, WAR, PA, wOBA, Runs Scored, Games Played. Doumit, 32 years old in 2013. Career highs in HR, 2B, RBI, PA, Games Played. These are guys that played well and saved the team money, money "saved" that should have been spent to upgrade weaknesses in the MI and SP. So they didn't improve the team as much as replace what 4 players gave them the year before (Willingham/Doumit 5.5 combined WAR in 2012 vs. a combined 2011 WAR of 5.7 for the other 4 players). At this point, as much as I appreciate what they have done to make 2012 interesting, they should have been/should still be offered up for what the market will bring while their market value is at its highest. Both will be irrelevant by the time the next wave of talent is ready to compete. Do you honestly see further upside as members of the MN Twins? They also should have acquired at least 2 starting pitchers on one-year deals for additional short-term bolstering and as potential trade chips with low risk to the club.

In the meantime, we have pitchers and position players ungrounded, and apparently untrained, in basic baseball fundamentals (holding runners, bunting, baserunning, hitting cutoffs, situational hitting and fielding, etc.) by the time they reach Target Field. A pitching staff chock full of pitch-to-contact mediocrity. We have a front office that hasn't produced a trade or a draft pick that has been a meaningful impact player for any extended period of time since who knows when. We've sat in the prime waiver wire spot at the bottom of the AL for two years now and have declined taking advantage of it time and time again. I never used the term horrific and wouldn't necessarily characterize that era as such, but Ryan was in on the contraction plot and started the downward spiral on talent development before his first departure.

twinswon1991 · October 7, 2012

I guess your thoughts on Ryan's ability should hinge on how responsible he was for the awful BS era. the 90's were awful and despite losing in the playoffs the 2000's were very good for a team on a shoestring budget. At that time many wondered what Ryan could do with an adequate budget. He now has a budget to work with and he made two outstanding FA pickups last season.

It might also too early to call the drafting and developing horrific. The horrific years of the draft (2004-2009) include Plouffe, Perkins, Slowey, Garza, Duensing, Parmelee, Hicks, Benson, Revere and Gibson. they made an awful trade with Garza but they still drafted and developed him. It's also worth pointing out that once you get outside of the top the draft is largely hit and miss and that is where the Twins drafted for the entire decade.
+1.

Yep. People who complain incessantly about "horrific" drafts haven't looked at many drafts. The Twins were mediocre, maybe even a smidge of the "bad" side of things. They drafted several prep players that are just starting to join the team in Plouffe, Parmelee, and Revere. They had Garza (ugh), Perkins, and Duensing earlier. Nothing to rave about but far from horrific.

The Cubs and Astros, now those were some horrific drafts.

I review the drafts pretty darn closely and I would say the Twins are bottom 5 in MLB over the last 6-8 years. Do not forget that TR and his good ole boys have been doing the scouting/drafting over that time so you cannot blame BS.

If you use Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere as examples of potential prospects I would say that is worse than horrific. These 3 guys are replacement level at best and if you follow the BP or Klaw chats you will find that scouts agree that Plouffe and Parmelee will never make it in the bigs as regulars. I am not as critical as BP and Klaw on Revere because I think he can be a decent platoon or 4th OF on a competitive team.

The main issue is TR and his boys have been the worst in baseball at drafting arms. TB drafts near the bottom each year and look at their farm system. Look at where they drafted their starters and you will see you don't need to have top 5 picks to get good pitching prospects. The difference with TB is they are constantly hiring fresh, young, forward thinkers who can use both their scouting eye and data to find that .0001% that distinguishes a good pitcher from the garbage the Twins always draft.

The Twins desparately need a fresh prospective in the FO. What TR did in the 90's was great but the game and scouting has changed a lot since then.

old nurse · October 7, 2012

I guess your thoughts on Ryan's ability should hinge on how responsible he was for the awful BS era. the 90's were awful and despite losing in the playoffs the 2000's were very good for a team on a shoestring budget. At that time many wondered what Ryan could do with an adequate budget. He now has a budget to work with and he made two outstanding FA pickups last season.

It might also too early to call the drafting and developing horrific. The horrific years of the draft (2004-2009) include Plouffe, Perkins, Slowey, Garza, Duensing, Parmelee, Hicks, Benson, Revere and Gibson. they made an awful trade with Garza but they still drafted and developed him. It's also worth pointing out that once you get outside of the top the draft is largely hit and miss and that is where the Twins drafted for the entire decade.
+1.

Yep. People who complain incessantly about "horrific" drafts haven't looked at many drafts. The Twins were mediocre, maybe even a smidge of the "bad" side of things. They drafted several prep players that are just starting to join the team in Plouffe, Parmelee, and Revere. They had Garza (ugh), Perkins, and Duensing earlier. Nothing to rave about but far from horrific.

The Cubs and Astros, now those were some horrific drafts.

I review the drafts pretty darn closely and I would say the Twins are bottom 5 in MLB over the last 6-8 years. Do not forget that TR and his good ole boys have been doing the scouting/drafting over that time so you cannot blame BS.

If you use Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere as examples of potential prospects I would say that is worse than horrific. These 3 guys are replacement level at best and if you follow the BP or Klaw chats you will find that scouts agree that Plouffe and Parmelee will never make it in the bigs as regulars. I am not as critical as BP and Klaw on Revere because I think he can be a decent platoon or 4th OF on a competitive team.

The main issue is TR and his boys have been the worst in baseball at drafting arms. TB drafts near the bottom each year and look at their farm system. Look at where they drafted their starters and you will see you don't need to have top 5 picks to get good pitching prospects. The difference with TB is they are constantly hiring fresh, young, forward thinkers who can use both their scouting eye and data to find that .0001% that distinguishes a good pitcher from the garbage the Twins always draft.

The Twins desparately need a fresh prospective in the FO. What TR did in the 90's was great but the game and scouting has changed a lot since then.

The Rays have solid starters. They needed every arm available for their bullpen. They did not trade any of the starters to get help for their offense when they still had a chance for the playoffs. This would suggest to me that Tampa does not think highly of what is behind their current 5 starters. Through the recent years though they have only traded two of them. They got a poor return for Garza, great return for Kasmir as he was falling apart and highly paid. The "forward thinking" staff has drafted a putrid offense. The offense they got from the Garza and Kasmir trades has been negligible. The other fact you appear not to notice is half of the current staff was drafted by La Marr, not Friedman. So perhaps you might want to reconsider your love affair with your so called great minds. Need I remind you Theo Epstein was called a great young baseball mind. He has done what for the Cubs. Andy McPhail was called a great young mind, how did he do after leaving the Twins?

Brock Beauchamp · October 7, 2012

Need I remind you Theo Epstein was called a great young baseball mind. He has done what for the Cubs.

Seriously?

kab21 · October 8, 2012

[

I review the drafts pretty darn closely and I would say the Twins are bottom 5 in MLB over the last 6-8 years. Do not forget that TR and his good ole boys have been doing the scouting/drafting over that time so you cannot blame BS.

If you use Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere as examples of potential prospects I would say that is worse than horrific. These 3 guys are replacement level at best and if you follow the BP or Klaw chats you will find that scouts agree that Plouffe and Parmelee will never make it in the bigs as regulars. I am not as critical as BP and Klaw on Revere because I think he can be a decent platoon or 4th OF on a competitive team.

The Twins desparately need a fresh prospective in the FO. What TR did in the 90's was great but the game and scouting has changed a lot since then.

I'm going to contend that this is a bunch of garbage. Every team has a rough stretch in the draft and you can't pick out one team that has been successful to say otherwise. Kobs is absolutely right that the Twins can't have another draft stretch like 04-08 but that horrific stretch is still producing big league regulars which some teams haven't even been able to do. They don't have a lot of arms in the system still but overall the Twins have a very strong farm system and Ryan was part of that effort even if he wasn't GM.

I think you're also exaggerating when you say 6-8 years. there are 4-5 yrs that are unimpressive but if you want to go further than that then you are going to need to include drafts that featured Hicks and Gibson or drafts that featured Baker, Span and Mauer.

Replacement level at best? i call complete bull. Plouffe just hit 24 HR's in 2/3's of season that included an injured hand. Even if you call this season his best that is WAY ABOVE replacement level. Parmelee was just named the 5th best int'l league prospect by BA. Neither of these guys will be all stars but replacement level? try not to exaggerate.

old nurse · October 8, 2012

Need I remind you Theo Epstein was called a great young baseball mind. He has done what for the Cubs.

Seriously?

Not exactly. Anybody looks great when the situations work, causation and correlation. Although a president/GM can do moves that completely screw up an organization, they do not completely fix an organization in a vacuum. Epstein did have players in hand and had the right manager, a few PEDS and he looks great. Look at the organizations that sustain good teams through the years. The Yankees have very few drafted players play for them. They keep what they view as the cream and trade for players or sign them. Atlanta and St Louis have built through developing players and trading for a few and signing an occasional free agent. The Twins won with a changing core. When they quit trading veterans for prospects, they fell apart shortly thereafter. Tampa Bay has had a run with a group of core players. We will see if their success continues as the core shifts.

Ryan started with an organization with not much talent. He built the team through drafts and astute trades. He got a few veterans with a little gas left in the tank that served for a few years, he traded some for talent before they became free agents. I suspect why Hunter was not traded was because teams were wary of trading with Ryan. That leaves draft picks being better than what was offered. Why could Ryan pluck talent off other teams? I would contend good scouting. The same scouting department that could not apply the same talents at an amateur level to find great talent. That is taking a Shooter Hunt rather than a Lance Lynn selected a few picks later (cherry picked, but there would be other examples if I but looked)

jokin · October 8, 2012

[

I review the drafts pretty darn closely and I would say the Twins are bottom 5 in MLB over the last 6-8 years. Do not forget that TR and his good ole boys have been doing the scouting/drafting over that time so you cannot blame BS.

If you use Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere as examples of potential prospects I would say that is worse than horrific. These 3 guys are replacement level at best and if you follow the BP or Klaw chats you will find that scouts agree that Plouffe and Parmelee will never make it in the bigs as regulars. I am not as critical as BP and Klaw on Revere because I think he can be a decent platoon or 4th OF on a competitive team.

The Twins desparately need a fresh prospective in the FO. What TR did in the 90's was great but the game and scouting has changed a lot since then.

I'm going to contend that this is a bunch of garbage. Every team has a rough stretch in the draft and you can't pick out one team that has been successful to say otherwise. Kobs is absolutely right that the Twins can't have another draft stretch like 04-08 but that horrific stretch is still producing big league regulars which some teams haven't even been able to do. They don't have a lot of arms in the system still but overall the Twins have a very strong farm system and Ryan was part of that effort even if he wasn't GM.

I think you're also exaggerating when you say 6-8 years. there are 4-5 yrs that are unimpressive but if you want to go further than that then you are going to need to include drafts that featured Hicks and Gibson or drafts that featured Baker, Span and Mauer.

Replacement level at best? i call complete bull. Plouffe just hit 24 HR's in 2/3's of season that included an injured hand. Even if you call this season his best that is WAY ABOVE replacement level. Parmelee was just named the 5th best int'l league prospect by BA. Neither of these guys will be all stars but replacement level? try not to exaggerate.

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

Brock Beauchamp · October 8, 2012

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

A fair analysis. I'm not defending the Twins' drafts in saying they were good. I'd even concede that they weren't even mediocre. My only problem stems from the word "horrific". "Horrific" drafts don't return viable major leaguers to the roster. The Twins have done that over the past 6-8 years, even if those players aren't superstars.

Teams like the Astros and Cubs spent large portions of those years picking in the top 15 of baseball (and often the top 10) yet they haven't shown any ability to produce decent players from the draft. The Twins spent most years picking in the bottom 15 (and several times, the bottom 10) and are still producing viable major leaguers. That's why I take issue with the word "horrific". If you're winning your division every other year and rarely placing lower than third (in the AL, which bumps your draft position down one or two more notches most years), it's not surprising that they haven't lit the world on fire in the draft. Could they have done better? Absolutely, especially in the pitching market, which has churned out virtually no pitchers with any kind of longevity.

But to call their drafts horrific is an overstatement of the situation. They've done a decent job with position players and a really bad job with starters. All in all, once you consider their draft position, they've underperformed in the draft but I wouldn't call it horrific. That's my only point, really.

twinswon1991 · October 8, 2012

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

A fair analysis. I'm not defending the Twins' drafts in saying they were good. I'd even concede that they weren't even mediocre. My only problem stems from the word "horrific". "Horrific" drafts don't return viable major leaguers to the roster. The Twins have done that over the past 6-8 years, even if those players aren't superstars.

Teams like the Astros and Cubs spent large portions of those years picking in the top 15 of baseball (and often the top 10) yet they haven't shown any ability to produce decent players from the draft. The Twins spent most years picking in the bottom 15 (and several times, the bottom 10) and are still producing viable major leaguers. That's why I take issue with the word "horrific". If you're winning your division every other year and rarely placing lower than third (in the AL, which bumps your draft position down one or two more notches most years), it's not surprising that they haven't lit the world on fire in the draft. Could they have done better? Absolutely, especially in the pitching market, which has churned out virtually no pitchers with any kind of longevity.

But to call their drafts horrific is an overstatement of the situation. They've done a decent job with position players and a really bad job with starters. All in all, once you consider their draft position, they've underperformed in the draft but I wouldn't call it horrific. That's my only point, really.

Who are these viable Major Leaguers you speak of other than Span? And I don't mean viable major league players who are in the league only because they are in the Twin's org. Plouffe and Parmelee would not make the bigs in a differeent org. Revere would be a nice 4th outfielder or platoon guy on a competitive team. I think Horrific is very fair if not too nice. The failed SP picks may turn into useful bullpen arms ala Perk which salvages a minute amount of value although you can find effective RP's on the street.

If not Horrific, how about a fireable offense?

Brock Beauchamp · October 8, 2012

Plouffe and Parmelee would not make the bigs in a differeent org.

That is flat-out untrue. Both players OPSed over 1.000 in AAA. They're not superstars in the making by any stretch of the imagination but to say they wouldn't make the bigs in another org is just ridiculous.

If you OPS over 1.000 in AAA, you make the bigs. It's that bloody simple.

spideyo · October 8, 2012

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Brock Beauchamp · October 8, 2012

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Failure to get on base. Until Revere can consistently hit above .300 and OBP at .340 or better, his value is marginal. Guys who are threats on the basepaths are only useful if they can get on base. Revere did that for half a season but the other half, he failed to get on base often enough to be a legitimate MLB starter.

But, as you said, he's only 24. There is room for improvement, I just don't think he'll be the player some Twins fans dream he will be.

Disclaimer: I'm almost always down on burners who can't hit it in the gaps and can't take a walk. Without those attributes, I don't care how fast they are, they almost never turn out to be much better than league average.

beckmt · October 9, 2012

Most of you seem to have forgotten what the CBA was during the time under discussion. Signability was an issue and the 'advisors' could steer their prospective clients away from perceived cheap organizations but curculating large demand to scare off temas they did not like dealing with. This greatly handicaped the mid and small market teams on front line talent. This has all changed with the current CBA to level the playing field and now time will tell how this affects the balance in baseball. Twins in Ryan's first term where a small market francise in terms of payroll, now they are mid market, give TR a chance to operate on a level playing field. It is easy to call for change when hinesight is 20-20, it is much for difficult when you have to deal with the information given. TR is setting higher standards under the new structure and we will see if Gardy among others is still around if the Twins under perform next year. TR knows the cubboard was bare for pitchers if the orginal 5 this year did not work out. Much more of the shakeout was because of the lack of fundimentals throughout the orgainization. The was combined with the lack of situational hitting the Twins displayed all year. If this continues expect more heads to roll.

jokin · October 9, 2012

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Failure to get on base. Until Revere can consistently hit above .300 and OBP at .340 or better, his value is marginal. Guys who are threats on the basepaths are only useful if they can get on base. Revere did that for half a season but the other half, he failed to get on base often enough to be a legitimate MLB starter.

But, as you said, he's only 24. There is room for improvement, I just don't think he'll be the player some Twins fans dream he will be.
Disclaimer: I'm almost always down on burners who can't hit it in the gaps and can't take a walk. Without those attributes, I don't care how fast they are, they almost never turn out to be much better than league average.

The Cubs made the same thumbs down decision on future HOFer, Lou Brock, to their everlasting dread. Looking at the career stats, surprising numbers where Revere compares very favorably with Brock after their first two years. Both are about the same size (5'9"/5'10" & 170lbs.), both entered the bigs full-time at the same age, 23.

Here are Brock's stats in his first 5+ years:

jokin · October 9, 2012

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center][/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center][/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left][/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center][/TH]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: partial_table]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: partial_table]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[TD=align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

...

jokin · October 9, 2012

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: left]Year[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Age[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Tm[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center]Lg[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]G[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]AB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]R[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]H[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SO[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]BA[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OPS[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OPS+[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]TB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]GDP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HBP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SH[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SF[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IBB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]WAR

[/TH]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]1961[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CHC[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right].091[/TD]

[TD=align: right].167[/TD]

[TD=align: right].091[/TD]

[TD=align: right].258[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]/8[/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]1962[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CHC[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]123[/TD]

[TD=align: right]477[/TD]

[TD=align: right]434[/TD]

[TD=align: right]73[/TD]

[TD=align: right]114[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]96[/TD]

[TD=align: right].263[/TD]

[TD=align: right].319[/TD]

[TD=align: right].412[/TD]

[TD=align: right].731[/TD]

[TD=align: right]92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]179[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: left]8[/TD]

[TD=align: left].7

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]1963[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CHC[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]148[/TD]

[TD=align: right]588[/TD]

[TD=align: right]547[/TD]

[TD=align: right]79[/TD]

[TD=align: right]141[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]122[/TD]

[TD=align: right].258[/TD]

[TD=align: right].300[/TD]

[TD=align: right].382[/TD]

[TD=align: right].682[/TD]

[TD=align: right]91[/TD]

[TD=align: right]209[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: left]*9[/TD]

[TD=align: left]2.3

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]1964[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: left]TOT[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]155[/TD]

[TD=align: right]695[/TD]

[TD=align: right]634[/TD]

[TD=align: right]111[/TD]

[TD=align: right]200[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]58[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]18[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=align: right]127[/TD]

[TD=align: right].315[/TD]

[TD=align: right].358[/TD]

[TD=align: right].464[/TD]

[TD=align: right].821[/TD]

[TD=align: right]123[/TD]

[TD=align: right]294[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]*79/8[/TD]

[TD=align: left]5.6

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: partial_table]

[TD=align: left]1964[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CHC[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]52[/TD]

[TD=align: right]231[/TD]

[TD=align: right]215[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]54[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=align: right].251[/TD]

[TD=align: right].300[/TD]

[TD=align: right].340[/TD]

[TD=align: right].640[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]73[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]9/8[/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: partial_table]

[TD=align: left]1964[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: left]STL[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103[/TD]

[TD=align: right]464[/TD]

[TD=align: right]419[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[TD=align: right]27[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right].348[/TD]

[TD=align: right].387[/TD]

[TD=align: right].527[/TD]

[TD=align: right].915[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]221[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]7/98[/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]1965[/TD]

[TD=align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=align: left]STL[/TD]

[TD=align: left]NL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]155[/TD]

[TD=align: right]697[/TD]

[TD=align: right]631[/TD]

[TD=align: right]107[/TD]

[TD=align: right]182[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=align: right]27[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45[/TD]

[TD=align: right]116[/TD]

[TD=align: right].288[/TD]

[TD=align: right].345[/TD]

[TD=align: right].445[/TD]

[TD=align: right].791[/TD]

[TD=align: right]114[/TD]

[TD=align: right]281[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: left]*7/98[/TD]

[TD=align: left]4.0

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

jokin · October 9, 2012

Here are Revere's stats:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: left]Year

[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Age[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Tm

[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center]Lg[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]G[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]AB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]R[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]H[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]2B[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]3B[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]CS[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SO[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]BA[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OPS[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OPS+[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]TB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]GDP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HBP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SH[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SF[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IBB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left]Pos[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]WAR

[/TH]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]2010[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]

[TD=align: left]AL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]28[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right].179[/TD]

[TD=align: right].233[/TD]

[TD=align: right].179[/TD]

[TD=align: right].412[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]/879D[/TD]

[TD=align: left][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]

[TD=align: left]AL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]117[/TD]

[TD=align: right]481[/TD]

[TD=align: right]450[/TD]

[TD=align: right]56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]120[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]41[/TD]

[TD=align: right].267[/TD]

[TD=align: right].310[/TD]

[TD=align: right].309[/TD]

[TD=align: right].619[/TD]

[TD=align: right]72[/TD]

[TD=align: right]139[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: left]87/9D[/TD]

[TD=align: left].7[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: full]

[TD=align: left]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]

[TD=align: left]AL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]124[/TD]

[TD=align: right]553[/TD]

[TD=align: right]511[/TD]

[TD=align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=align: right]150[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]54[/TD]

[TD=align: right].294[/TD]

[TD=align: right].333[/TD]

[TD=align: right].342[/TD]

[TD=align: right].675[/TD]

[TD=align: right]89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]175[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: left]*98/7[/TD]

[TD=align: left]2.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Brock obviously comes in with more power and a higher OPS+, but Revere already has a much higher amount of SBs and a clearly lower CS% rate. Their combined WAR value in their first two years is nearly identical (Revere 3.1/Brock 3.0). Looking at each of their poor BB%, this also looks favorably upon Revere- his BB rates were 5.4% and 5.2%, while Brock's were 7.3% and 5.3%. But Revere's K rates were way better- 8.5% and 9.8%- versus Brock who struck out at rates of 20.1% and 20.7%.

I'm not saying Revere is going to suddenly start a power surge and turn into a can't-miss Hall of Famer, but I don't think he's reached anywhere close to the top of his ceiling, another all-around quantum jump in skills next year like this year shouldn't be easily dismissed as unlikely. If in this off-season, he hits the weight room a little bit, works on adjusting his swing to hit more gaps on the fly and develops a little more plate discipline, combined with his already-established ability to cover more ground in the OF than just about anyone in baseball, I think he could be on the cusp of a near-great-to-great career.

Since the main topic of concern is the failure at getting on base, it's important to go back to the stats. Brock's OBP dropped from .319 to .300 from year one to year two. In his first 5 years, Brock had 3 out of 5 seasons of OBP below what Revere achieved this season at .333 (this includes the 1966 season as year 5, which because of space limitations, I couldn't publish in Brock's stat line).

PseudoSABR · October 9, 2012

Revere clearly fell off late in the season; I'm not willing to say whether that was returning to the mean, a conditioning issue, or playing on a losing club. I imagine Revere played more this season than he has any other season previously. Not making excuses, but looking at context.

While Span might out produce Revere in any number of measurable ways, his healthy issues are also hard to discount. With Hicks (and Benson, and Buxton, and Kepler) in the wings, I hope the Twins "roll the dice": trading Span and going with Revere in CF to open 2013.

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