Article: Twins vs Astros Series Preview

[Andrew Thares]

On Monday, the Twins will face their toughest test thus far as the defending World Series champion Houston Astros are coming to town for a three-game set. Not only will the Twins pitchers have to deal with the vaunted Astros lineup, but the Twins hitters will have to face 1-2-3 in the Houston rotation. If the Twins can somehow escape this series with a couple of victories it will build a lot of confidence for the team going forward.Series at a Glance

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*Win Odds from FiveThirtyEight

 

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have looked strong to start the season, after taking the opening series in Baltimore, they have split a series with both Pittsburgh and Seattle. The key for them in this series is to at least take one of three from the Astros to stay at .500 going into a four-game series against the White Sox this weekend.

 

Probable Starting Pitchers

 

RHP Lance Lynn

After having his start on Sunday snowed out, Lance Lynn has been pushed back to game one of the series against Houston to make his Twins home debut. Lynn will be looking for a bounce back start after he struggled in Pittsburgh, but it will be no easy task facing the Astros.

 

RHP Jake Odorizzi

Jake Odorizzi got bounced around a bit his last time out against Pittsburgh, giving up five hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. While it is hard to expect Odorizzi to have many more performances like he did on Opening Day, it would be nice for him to settle into a middle-ground between these two starts. Despite Odorizzi’s history in the American League, he hasn’t faced the Astros since 2015, so many of their hitters will be fairly unfamiliar with him.

 

RHP Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson struggled to keep the ball down in the zone in his start against the Mariners, and as a result he got hit up pretty good. Of the 17 balls that were hit in play against Gibson, 9 of them were at an exit velocity of greater than 90 MPH. He will need to find his groove next time out if he wants to avoid the same fate against maybe the best lineup in baseball. Gibson faced the Astros once last year, in Houston, where he gave up four runs over six innings of work.

 

Houston Astros

If there is such a thing as a World Series hangover, the Houston Astros seem to be immune to it as they have come out the gates on fire. However, they have had the benefit of facing an easy schedule early on, as the Twins will be the first true playoff contender that they will face in 2018. The Astro’s bats really put the pounding on Twins pitching last season, scoring 9.5 runs per game during the six-game season series.

 

Probable Starting Pitchers

 

RHP Justin Verlander

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Justin Verlander got off to bad start in 2017, to the tune of a 4.96 ERA through July 2nd. However, after that point Verlander was his vintage self, stymieing opponents in the second half with a 1.92 ERA. The Astros have thrived with Verlander on the mound, having won in 12 of the 13 games he has pitched in since joining the team last August. Verlander is a familiar foe to the Twins after all those years in Detroit. In 2017, Verlander faced the Twins just one time where he got knocked around for four runs off three hits and six walks in a start while he was still with Detroit.

 

LHP Dallas Keuchel

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After having to face Justin Verlander in the first game of the series, the Twins don’t get a break, having then to face another former Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel. Many people consider Keuchel to be a pure ground ball pitcher, which causes them to sleep on his ability to strike hitters out. Since the start of the 2015 season there have been 78 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings, and of those 78 Dallas Keuchel’s 22.1% strikeout rate ranks 30th. This is a deadly combination that makes Keuchel so difficult for opposing hitters.

 

RHP Lance McCullers Jr.

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In 2017, there were 280 pitchers who threw at least 1,000 pitches at the major league level, and not a single one threw a curveball on a higher percentage of their pitches than did Lance McCullers Jr. When Paul Molitor is setting the lineup against McCullers, he will need to be wary of McCullers’ pretty stark reverse splits. In his career, McCullers had allowed a .329 wOBA against right-handed hitters, while just a .278 wOBA against left-handed hitters.

 

Players to Watch

 

Jose Altuve, 2B

Despite his small stature, Jose Alutve has established himself as one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball. The defending AL MVP has collected 200+ hits in each of the previous four seasons. What is remarkable, is despite the fact that he is the veteran presence on maybe the best team in baseball, Altuve is still only 27-years-old.

 

Carlos Correa, SS

Taken with the first pick in the 2012 MLB Armateur Draft, one pick before the Twins took Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa has lived up to the hype. Even though Altuve is the reigning AL MVP, Correa might actually be the best player on the Houston Astros. Had Correa not missed six weeks with a thumb injury, he would have challenged Altuve and Judge right down to the wire for the AL MVP.

 

Alex Bregman, 3B

Alex Bregman had a breakout first full season in the majors in 2017. Bregman doesn’t have a single tool in his game that sticks out as elite, but he is an above average player at every tool. Bregman has more than enough defensive ability to play shortstop, but he is forced over to the hot corner with the presence of Carlos Correa on his team.

 

Bullpen Comparison

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Up until the game on Saturday against the Mariners, the Twins bullpen was off to a good start to the season. Though after giving up six runs over 4.1 innings in that game against the Mariners the bullpen ERA has risen to 4.01. They will need to have a good series against the Astros if the Twins have aspirations of winning this series. It is hard to forget about what happened to the Twins bullpen the last time Houston came to town.

 

If there is one potential weak spot on the Astros roster it is in the bullpen. However, with the team’s incredible depth in the starting rotation, two very strong starters in Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh are available in the bullpen. They also have Ken Giles as their closer, who despite his poor performance in the postseason last year, he is still a quality option for the team.

 

Zone charts courtesy of baseballsavant.com.

 

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[Mr. Brooks]

Hmmm. Lynn, Odorizzi, Gibson, vs. Verlander, Kuechel, McCullers. That looks very unfavorable for the hometown nine.

On the other hand, it's baseball, so who knows.

[mikelink45]

Their is nothing favorable in this matchup which means we might sweep them.  Lets dream, hope, enjoy.