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Posted

Ability would be fairly stable, sure. But performance wouldn't be. Why should it? These are humans, not robots. Defense could and should peak and valley just like pitching or hitting.

 

You've never seen a normally good fielder have a bad day? If they are capable of having a bad day, then they are capable of having a bad year.

I think your probably right. I think the issue Cheif and I have is that a bad day can really skew the metrics. I think Rosario had that this year. A few bad throws and drops negated a lot of solid play. If hee caught a few of the balls that he clamored after a long run, his metrics probably look much better. Sort of like a bad inning to a reliever.

Posted

I read this a lot, but I question it. Defensive ability should be pretty stable, IMO. At least way more stable than 1 yr of hitting or pitching results.

 

It's just another reason I'm very skeptical about current publicly available defensive metrics.

 

I might be proven wrong someday, of course.

what about variables like health, field conditions, positioning tendencies by coaching staff changing, pitching staff changes or opposing teams changing base running tactics?
Posted

I think your probably right. I think the issue Cheif and I have is that a bad day can really skew the metrics. I think Rosario had that this year. A few bad throws and drops negated a lot of solid play. If hee caught a few of the balls that he clamored after a long run, his metrics probably look much better. Sort of like a bad inning to a reliever.

statistically the “bad nights” should normalize over a season. It’s why fielding metrics are preferred to be viewed as a season stat.

 

Still, “should” and “do” are different. Sometimes the bad nights accumulate enough that they become more the norm than the exception

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted

what about variables like health, field conditions, positioning tendencies by coaching staff changing, pitching staff changes or opposing teams changing base running tactics?

Certainly health could diminish a players defensive ability. Age, too.

 

However, Field conditions are a non factor, and in any case are unrelated to defensive ability. So is positioning....that might mean fewer or more balls fielded but that's scouting, not defensive ability. Who pitches doesn't make someone a better or worse defender, nor does the other team.

Posted

Certainly health could diminish a players defensive ability. Age, too.

 

However, Field conditions are a non factor, and in any case are unrelated to defensive ability. So is positioning....that might mean fewer or more balls fielded but that's scouting, not defensive ability. Who pitches doesn't make someone a better or worse defender, nor does the other team.

ability is never measured in isolation. It’s always measured in outcomes of plays. Outcomes of plays are impacted by dozens of things

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