Article: Two Of Us

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

How many MLB players of value are traded at the beginning on June?  It's rare enough that unless you have a specific offer to overwhelm the trading team, I'm guessing they will hold on to any good players (like Neshek and Hand) and wait for the market to develop in July.

 

You can sometimes find scuffling buy-low types like Sam Dyson around that time, and since a shaky first appearance with San Fran (against the Twins, no less), Dyson has been pretty good, and in high-leverage situations too.  We probably should have picked him up, at least to take Breslow's spot.

 

 

The Rays are pretty much even with the Twins and the other wild card contenders right now, so they probably aren't selling for less than top value, which could be pretty high given Odorizzi's record and future control.  Also, Alex Cobb is the soon-to-be-free-agent on their staff, and I think Tampa would do their best to move him before other assets.

Just because June trades don't happen often doesn't mean they can't. There were even rumors that the Padres were willing to move Hand in June. The same link also cites the trade that landed Jake Arrieta in Chicago (finalized on July 2). So while unconventional, June trades do happen and can work out.

 

I guess my hope is Falvey and Levine are everything Ryan isn't and expect them to be crazy unconventional. I'm with you on Tampa, but there's a lot of time for them to scuffle, just like there's plenty of time for the Twins to do the same.

 

I think KC is going to start running away with the Central, and Cleveland will figure it out and get a Wild Card spot. I don't think Tampa sticks with NYY, but they certainly have a competent pitching staff, which is more than I can say for the Twins.

 

I actually don't think Falvey and Levine will make a move for a starter. My money's on Kintzler being moved to a contender (like Fernando Abad was), and the Twins going all in on Hand and maybe bringing Neshek back if the price is right, and they're still in it at the Deadline.

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

Its not that complicated. No need to look at strength of schedule or padded record or any of that.
We played them head to head and it left zero doubt they were the much better team.

The same goes for Boston, and I suspect the Yankees will whoop us, too. If the Twins aren't going to be competitive in the playoffs, I'd rather they sell like mad and give more ABs and IPs to younsters to see who can stick in the bigs, specifically Zach Granite (for Rosario), Mitch Garver (for Giminez), Nick Gordon (for Escobar), Fernando Romero (for Santana, which hurts me most), Stephen Gonsalves (for Santiago, who will likely be DL'd for good), and Luke Bard (for just about anyone in the pen).   

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

There will probably be several other teams who will offer more than the Twins are willing to offer.

These aren't your father's Twins, and they have more to offer than just about any team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just because June trades don't happen often doesn't mean they can't. There were even rumors that the Padres were willing to move Hand in June. The same link also cites the trade that landed Jake Arrieta in Chicago (finalized on July 2). So while unconventional, June trades do happen and can work out.

I never said it can't happen. But the buying team generally has to pay extra to make it happen early. That is why they are rare, the buyers generally aren't willing to pay the steep price. What exactly do you see the Twins giving up for Hand? He might be the top reliever on the market. If you want the Padres to forego the July bidding, you will probably have to offer up Gordon, or maybe Romero or Gonsalves plus another piece.

[spinowner]

 

These aren't your father's Twins, and they have more to offer than just about any team.

We have players to offer, but we won't offer more than other teams. And that's fine with me.

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

Hand is going to be a hot target for multiple teams this July. I don't know if the Twins should be buying when he's at the peak of his value. 

 

It's pretty cool that a Chaska guy has gone from DFA'd to All-Star in 1.5 years. I was able to bat against him in HS... Went 0-2 with 2 swinging strikeouts, and 1 foul ball!

So who will close games next year when Kintzler and Perkins are both gone, and May is coming back from surgery? They're not going to sign a free agent reliever for big money. Hand is an absolute perfect fit, and something tells me Falvey and Levine will find a way to get it done.

 

We can only hope the Padres are interested in either established big leaguers like Escobar and Rosario, or prospects that are three years away. I can't believe Preller would shut the door on the Twins after asking for Gordon and getting a "no way."

 

There are plenty of prospects the Padres could use, and even another one at SS in Wander Javier. So which one do you keep. The one who's closer or the one who's younger? I go with Gordon because Royce Lewis was just drafted number one overall, is playing shortstop with GCL Twins, and is absolutely wrecking baseballs to start his career (.986 OPS, six 2Bs in 37 ABs).

 

I couldn't fault Falvey and Levine for trading Javier and another prospect for Hand, regardless of what Javier becomes -- unless Hand turns into Matt Capps. 

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

I never said it can't happen. But the buying team generally has to pay extra to make it happen early. That is why they are rare, the buyers generally aren't willing to pay the steep price. What exactly do you see the Twins giving up for Hand? He might be the top reliever on the market. If you want the Padres to forego the July bidding, you will probably have to offer up Gordon, or maybe Romero or Gonsalves plus another piece.

I really don't think the Padres have anyone who can play SS at a replacement level right now or in the near future. That might be the case in LF, too. I wrote about this here. I think you could entice them in Escobar and/or Rosario. I don't see people showing up for Padres games next year if those two positions are as bad as they are this season. Their 21-year-old left fielder has an OPS+ of 65 in 170 PAs. 

Edited July 8, 2017 by GoGonzoJournal

[jorgenswest]

I don't see the Padres taking someone that they will need to take to arbitration. They should be seeking most of the 6 years of control in any player acquired. They are too far away from being competitive. I just don't see Escobar meeting their needs and they can do better than Rosario.

[DJSim22]

 

I love reading the comments on this site, but man do people have the back up QB syndrome.

 

Could not agree more, been saying this for years!  I am happy for Granite and hope he proves us wrong, but everything points to a 4th outfielder at best. 

[drjim]

I don't see the Padres taking someone that they will need to take to arbitration. They should be seeking most of the 6 years of control in any player acquired. They are too far away from being competitive. I just don't see Escobar meeting their needs and they can do better than Rosario.

I would expect more in return for Rosario if I'm the Twins. That's a ton for a reliever that was released as recently as last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would expect more in return for Rosario if I'm the Twins. That's a ton for a reliever that was released as recently as last year.

Mild correction, but Hand was claimed off waivers fairly quickly last year, he was never released. And I'm not sure how relevant that is anymore -- his performance and peripherals have dramatically improved in a year and a half since. And it's not his fault that the Marlins never really committed him to the pen.

 

And he's a reliever, but one who has already shown an aptitude for handling one of MLB's highest volume bullpen workloads, and at fairly high leverage.

 

The WAR might come out similar, but I think Hand would be considered more valuable. Even with 4 years of control to Hand's 2, I think Rosario might have higher projected arb salaries which neutralizes that a bit.

[drjim]

Mild correction, but Hand was claimed off waivers fairly quickly last year, he was never released. And I'm not sure how relevant that is anymore -- his performance and peripherals have dramatically improved in a year and a half since. And it's not his fault that the Marlins never really committed him to the pen.

 

And he's a reliever, but one who has already shown an aptitude for handling one of MLB's highest volume bullpen workloads, and at fairly high leverage.

 

The WAR might come out similar, but I think Hand would be considered more valuable. Even with 4 years of control to Hand's 2, I think Rosario might have higher projected arb salaries which neutralizes that a bit.

I'm one of the high guys on Rosario, but an everyday lf for a pretty good setup man seems like an overpay, especially one that was pretty mediocre 2 years ago.

 

Even though it helps my point, I think WAR underrates relievers.

 

And yes, waived, not released.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm one of the high guys on Rosario, but an everyday lf for a pretty good setup man seems like an overpay, especially one that was pretty mediocre 2 years ago.

Hand was mediocre as a starter / mopup man 2 years ago. That means very little today.

 

Rosario is an everyday LF, but with a clearly league average-ish bat. His Rbat in MLB: -5, -4, and 1 so far this season. That's not really a great asset on its own, especially not to the Padres.

 

An aside: I do wonder if Rosario will be Super 2 this winter. He will finish with 2 years, 120 days of service time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Hand is #4 in relief innings this year, #3 in appearances, after having led MLB in both categories last year. With the leverage and effectiveness, it doesn't feel quite right to call that just "a pretty good setup man" as if that combination of performance and usage is fairly common. It's pretty much all-star caliber in modern MLB. With 2 more years of control, there could be more opportunities to flip him too depending on team performance. I don't think Rosario would ever be considered a top trade market candidate, based on his current performance level.

Edited July 8, 2017 by spycake

[spinowner]

 

I think you're giving the Astros waaaaaay too much credit.  Look at what they've been padding out their record and building up their confidence with all season.  I mean, what if the Twins got to play the A's, Angels and Rangers as much as they do, I'll bet we'd look pretty studly too.

 

 

...the Astros aren't some invincible super team.

As of this morning the Astros are on a pace to win 110 games. And as of this morning the other 4 teams in the AL West are a collective one game under .500 in games outside the division, indicating that the Astros are not "padding out their record" against inferior opposition. It seems obvious to me that the Astros are head and shoulders above the rest of MLB with the exception of the Dodgers.

[Han Joelo]

As of this morning the Astros are on a pace to win 110 games. And as of this morning the other 4 teams in the AL West are a collective one game under .500 in games outside the division, indicating that the Astros are not "padding out their record" against inferior opposition. It seems obvious to me that the Astros are head and shoulders above the rest of MLB with the exception of the Dodgers.

https://goo.gl/images/qVB9RH