A Hitters Purpose

[GMinTraining]

As I watched the game last night, I was amazed at watching the match ups between hitter and batter.  So many story lines.  I looked heavily at how a hitter like Baez , who was the NL Championship MVP, homers early and was asked to bunt in a crucial AB late in the game.  There was a time a few years ago that evaluator's wondered if he would ever hit at the MLB level.  His strikeout numbers were ridiculous, but his defense was always stellar.  His K numbers were:

AA    -   29%    2013

AAA -   30%    2014

MLB  - 41%    2014

MLB  - 30%    2015

MLB  - 24%    2016

 

As evaluators do their thing thru the minor league level, what is the tell all that makes their predictions?

I look at 3 position players (corner infielder / middle infielder / & corner outfielder):

Thru the minors these players average the following:

RUNS

Kepler 1 run in 58% of his games

Baez  1 run 67% of his games

Sano 1 run 68% of his games

 

RBI

Kepler 1 rbi every 59% of his games

Baez 1 rbi every 75% of his games

Sano 1 rbi every 75% of his games

 

HRs

Kepler 1 HR every 7% of his games

Baez 1 HR every 22% of his games

Sano 1 HR every 23% of his games

 

2B

Kepler 1 double every 22% of his games

Baez 1 double every 22% of his games

Sano 1 double every 24% of his games

 

Total Bases

Kepler  1.6 TB per game

Baez  2  TB per game

Sano  2  TB per game

 

As we saw in yesterday's game 7 - The bottom line is whoever scores more runs - wins!  What becomes the most important element?  Does it matter if you struck out more than others in the minors if you score more than everyone else (Sano/Baez)?  Does it matter where you hit in the order and who hits in front of you?  Does it matter your impact in games played?  What is your positional impact?  What is the most important element of a hitter?  High OBP like Mauer, but low Run Scoring production?  High K Rate like Sano, but major production impact?  Great defender like Baez with production upside and improved K rate?  Which of these 3 players would you want to start your franchise? No team has the perfect hitting model?  Everyone has flaws.  Think about what you've had in the Twins system for the last decade and decide.  Which model is your future leader of the Twins and/or do we have that person in our system?

[Craig Arko]

See ball, hit ball.

[gunnarthor]

Baez had a nice season after a couple disappointing ones.  He was a top sure fire can't miss prospect, then a bust and now might be making some strides.  Good reminder to not give up on prospects who struggle - or think that only the Twins see elite prospects struggle.

[Seth Stohs]

In my opinion, the ideal hitter's purpose is this:

 

1.) Know the strike zone.

2.) Know areas within the strike zone that you can crush the ball.

3.) If you get that pitch, crush it.

4.) If it's not a strike, don't swing at it.

 

I'd never advocate walking as a hitter's purpose, though reading those four things should say that if the pitcher doesn't throw strikes, take the walk.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yep, walking isn't the goal, but if you aren't getting strikes, you walk.  If you have a hole in the strike zone, you have other problems, as laying off strikes is a bad thing.

[BK432]

1. Get on base

2. When you can, hit for power

[drivlikejehu]

It's simple: don't get out.

[Loosey]

There's a little bit more to it than that.  I hate the term "productive out" but in nearly all situations it is clearly is more beneficial to put the ball in play to move the runner rather than strike out.  The one time you would rather strike out is always after a double play.   But you would never know the alternative outcome unless it happened.

 

 

I would also agree with Seth's 4 ideas.  I would add that understanding the situation is equally important. Early on this year it seemed the Twins did not understand those situations.  They appeared to swing for homeruns and strike out a lot of times with a guy 3rd base and 0 or 1 out.  When usually a fly ball or ground ball to the right side of the infield would have scored a run.  

 

The Strikeout with a guy on 3rd and one out infuriates me, especially when the the batter makes no adjustment to avoid striking out.

 

 

[BK432]

 

There's a little bit more to it than that.  I hate the term "productive out" but in nearly all situations it is clearly is more beneficial to put the ball in play to move the runner rather than strike out.  The one time you would rather strike out is always after a double play.   But you would never know the alternative outcome unless it happened.

 

 

I would also agree with Seth's 4 ideas.  I would add that understanding the situation is equally important. Early on this year it seemed the Twins did not understand those situations.  They appeared to swing for homeruns and strike out a lot of times with a guy 3rd base and 0 or 1 out.  When usually a fly ball or ground ball to the right side of the infield would have scored a run.  

 

The Strikeout with a guy on 3rd and one out infuriates me, especially when the the batter makes no adjustment to avoid striking out.

 

Certainly there are circumstances where a hitter should adjust approach to favor a productive out versus not scoring or moving up a runner. But I think those situations are pretty limited. Unless it's late and one run can make a huge difference, I don't want our guys trying to ground out to 2B so we can score a run. Crooked numbers win ballgames, and we're better off in most cases trying to string plate appearances together where guys get on base.

[Loosey]

 

Certainly there are circumstances where a hitter should adjust approach to favor a productive out versus not scoring or moving up a runner. But I think those situations are pretty limited. Unless it's late and one run can make a huge difference, I don't want our guys trying to ground out to 2B so we can score a run. Crooked numbers win ballgames, and we're better off in most cases trying to string plate appearances together where guys get on base.

I agree.  I'm just remembering early in the year when they would strike out 15+ times a game and so many of them would occur with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs.  It seemed like whoever was up was trying to hit a home run when a base hit, a fly ball or even a ground out would have scored a run. Then the next batter would inevitably come up and hit a fly ball that was one batter too later.

[drivlikejehu]

Obviously you have certain situations where an out can be 'productive,' but the basic purpose of batting is not to get out.

 

Now, once you get into different kinds of outs, there is some variation - advancing a runner beats a K, a K beats a double play, etc. But you also should be mindful of the fact that hitters are limited in their ability to really control a lot of those things. Even with a sac fly, a lot depends on the characteristics of the pitcher, the loft the hitter's swing produces, etc.