Article: Evaluating Deron Johnson's Drafts

[tobi0040]

You could very easily improve this study by findng an index WAR value for each pick in the first round, or the whole draft for that matter, and then comparing the teams drafted results to that index.

 

You can also take into account time from draft pick by using a cumulative WAR to date index for each of the years.  

 

So, in 2008 the Twins drafted Aaron Hicks with the 14th pick.  The average MLB 14th pick 8 years out has an average WAR of X.  Hicks has a WAR of Y.  The ratio of X to Y would demonstrate how well the GM did to date.  One would be average.

This is basically what the Cowboys and Jimmy Johnson did to calculate the value of each draft pick. Then they went out and traded a bunch of players for picks and screwed several teams over. Hershal Walker anyone?

 

In reality I think what Thrylos put together was great and could be improved by a few tweaks. Moving the period of WAR accumulation to account for HS and college players and also some slotting value as you have discussed to point out draft position. Sounds easy but would certainly add work to the analysis.

 

I don't think the conclusion will change all that much though.

[dbminn]

Nice article, Thrylos. Pretty clear the Twins had drafts somewhere between bad and horrible in 2008, 2010 and 2011. (Rosario still has a chance to make the 2010 draft look a bit better).

 

I don't think WAR is a good evaluator from 2012-present. By WAR, only 9% of the cumulative average value in Thrylos' chart has come from players drafted beginning in 2012.

 

The Twins will soon have five players from the 2012 draft on their roster (Chargois being the last of the five). All have a chance to contribute in the coming years. We can't say either way at this point whether that draft was a failure. 

 

 

 

 

[70charger]

 

Why compare to other HS kids......who would you rather have right now, Trea Turner or Nick Gordon? 

The answer to this question shows yet another of the million ways this analysis is flawed. Some teams would absolutely say Nick Gordon, because these teams' - the rebuilding ones' - lack of competitiveness would waste Trea Turner's cheap and young years.

 

So how does the state of the current team fit into the analysis? Short answer, it doesn't. And that's not very helpful.

[Lonestar]

Why compare to other HS kids......who would you rather have right now, Trea Turner or Nick Gordon?

I preferred Turner when they were drafted

[drivlikejehu]

It's hard to evaluate at a high level of precision. But the Twins have overall been below average at drafting for the past 15 years, no matter how you want to look at it, with the caveat that the evaluation always lags because the results take so long to manifest.

[The Wise One]

 

It's hard to evaluate at a high level of precision. But the Twins have overall been below average at drafting for the past 15 years, no matter how you want to look at it, with the caveat that the evaluation always lags because the results take so long to manifest.

A study looked at the WARP of the players drafted by each team for the seasons covering 2014. Minnesota was right in the middle, when they expanded it to 2010-2014, the Twins were still in the middle. Drafting was the issue over the last 15 years

[drivlikejehu]

 

A study looked at the WARP of the players drafted by each team for the seasons covering 2014. Minnesota was right in the middle, when they expanded it to 2010-2014, the Twins were still in the middle. Drafting was the issue over the last 15 years

 

Link?

[The Wise One]

 

Link?

Where is yours?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Where is yours?

 

I didn't make reference to any specific authorities, but instead provided an assertion based on what seems to me to be common sense. If you have empirical evidence that says otherwise, please share so that I can re-visit my opinion.

[70charger]

I preferred Turner when they were drafted

K.

[glunn]

 

They worked with Byron ALOT in spring on his bunting abilities. With his speed bunting should definitely be part of his game still needs work.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSHBF6ElHeA

 

This video does not give me comfort. It looks like the ball is coming in at less than 70 mph and without any movement.

 

I never coached beyond little league, but I would like to see him practicing with actual fastballs and curveballs, or with a batting machine that is coming in at 95 or 100 mph.  Maybe he has done other drills, but from the games I have seen his bunting skills are disappointing.  Based on his overall skill set, I wonder whether the coaching has been competent.

 

 

[The Wise One]

 

I didn't make reference to any specific authorities, but instead provided an assertion based on what seems to me to be common sense. If you have empirical evidence that says otherwise, please share so that I can re-visit my opinion.

Read the article some time ago. Common sense says between 2010 and 2014 there were a few players the Twin drafted that put up decent numbers, even if they were no longer playing for the Twins

[The Wise One]

 

I get these points.  But about half of the teams that drafted below the Twins from 2008-11, actually did better than the Twins.  There was an interesting similar comment arguing that the teams that drafted higher in each draft (like the Nats early) are favorites.  So I looked at the top 5 or so individual WAR contributions from each of the early drafts vs. overall draft pick and looked like that:

 

5 (or so) Highest WARs in draft by drafted position:

2008: 5 (31.6), 135 (18.3), 117 (17.5), 16 (15.2), 96 (14.2)
2009: 25 (44.4), 246 (27.4), 82 (21.9), 63 (18.3), 1 (18.3), 59 (18.0)
2010: 13 (29.4), 3 (22.3), 1 (21.5), 70 (19.2), 23 (12), 272 (11.5)
2011: 172 (13.1), 14 (13.1), 18 (10.3), 11 (9.6), 1 (9.4), 6, (9.1),

 

Funny enough no number 1 pick has the highest draft.

 

As far as the second point goes, this really is part of the drafting strategy and should weigh in the evaluation.  The Twins chose to take preps who will take 5 years or so to develop vs. College players who are ready in 2-3.  It was a choice and it hurt them.  And it is fine to do that if you are willing to fill the gaps with free agents in between, which is not what the TR & Co Twins do

 

Fun thing to speculate:  Would the 2015 Twins that nearly missed a post-season berth be there if they chose Wacha over Buxton in 2012?

By highlighting the fact the best player by accumulated war is not even the first person selected then it really shouldn't matter who is doing the drafting, it is luck. Any person drafting then should be fired from their job if they can't pick out the best player in the draft.  Some judge of talent

Players multiple picks lower than what Johnson picked doing "better",  Again multiple teams missing out. All heads must roll  

 

 

Drafting Wacha rather than Buxton would leave some bitter blogger in another 5 years wondering how the idiot Johnson passed on a superstar CF where Wacha was a flash in the pan that after the scapular injury limited his career . Poor snakebit Twins ended up with another injured pitcher.