OF Defense Flying South, Again

[drjim]

I imagine that too, with the man also trying to ride a unicycle and look straight into the sun. That's the sort of misadventures I'm bracing for.

I predict on opening day he will be wearing his glove as a hat and only be wearing one shoe.

[jimmer]

Hopefully soon, we'll have an OF of Rosario, Kepler and Buxton.  THAT would be a fun OF to watch.

[TheLeviathan]

I predict on opening day he will be wearing his glove as a hat and only be wearing one shoe.

Even the Twins are publicly voicing the expectation that it will be a struggle/adventure.

[Platoon]

Nope.  Pythagoras said that in a right triangle, the square of the hypotenuse equals the sum of the squares of the two othogonal sides, about 2300 years before  the first baseball game ever played.

 

Bill James said the above and called his formula Pythagorian expectation, for some reason.

posters who discuss math should be assessed warning points!

[drjim]

 

Even the Twins are publicly voicing the expectation that it will be a struggle/adventure.

 

I guess I'm not expecting Jason Heyward either.

 

I don't expect a ton of range and he'll have some hesitancy around the walls, but he'll make most of the plays and have a cannon.

 

I expect people to massively overreact to the occasional misplay, but overall it will mostly a non-story. Or he'll run over Buxton and break him in half.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When will they Mike Trout - Byron Buxton comps end? Yes they both sailed through Cedar Rapids. The similarities end there. Trout is on a pace to be one of the greatest players of all time. Buxton, is not.

 

For mere mortals, which Buxton probably is, skipping AAA can be a challenge. Often it requires one or three option years to be exercised. If that happens this season, the OF defense will suffer.

 

edit: I realize Buxton hasn't completely skipped it but 59 PAs doesn't inspire much confidence that he's mastered it either.

If you don't like Trout comps - and I agree they're probably a bad idea - then use what I call the UFCAF (Upton Family Ceiling and Floor) system.

 

Now of course injury can derail any ceiling and floor. Byron, bless his heart, could be killed by a falling Goodyear blimp tomorrow, rendering this all moot.

 

But a reasonable ceiling for Buxton is Justin Upton (.825 career OPS) and a reasonable floor is BJ Upton (.726 career OPS).

 

Both Uptons were among the most highly-regarded prospects in baseball at the time and both reached MLB quickly (in roughly the same timeline Buxton would have reached Minnesota had his lost injury season not occurred). Both have had good MLB careers, though one lived up to his potential and the other "scuffled" a bit (if one can refer to a decent MLB starting player as scuffling).

 

I'm worried that Buxton may turn into BJ Upton instead of Justin, not that he's going to OPS under .600, .650, or hell even .700. That's unlikely to happen if he stays healthy.

[Dantes929]

 

Nope.  Pythagoras said that in a right triangle, the square of the hypotenuse equals the sum of the squares of the two othogonal sides, about 2300 years before  the first baseball game ever played.

 

Bill James said the above and called his formula Pythagorian expectation, for some reason.

It was shorthand.    In fact, we don't know that the outfield defense saved 5 runs or it might have saved 100 runs or if it was worth any wins.   Rosario throws a guy out at home that another outfielder doesn't (how do they measure that?)  and that saves a run but also records an out and maybe if he doesn't throw the guy out the other team scores 10 runs after that but maybe the other team was going to win anyway.  If the outfield did prevent 46 runs compared to 2014 it might have made the difference in 46 games or 0 but the pythagorean expectations is reasonable statistics.      I don't need the advanced metrics.    Rosario, Buxton and HIcks were better than Willingham and whoever and it saved runs which helped the pitchers.  Ok, in my opinion.   And wait?  Pythagoras is dead?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I guess I'm not expecting Jason Heyward either.

 

I don't expect a ton of range and he'll have some hesitancy around the walls, but he'll make most of the plays and have a cannon.

 

I expect people to massively overreact to the occasional misplay, but overall it will mostly a non-story. Or he'll run over Buxton and break him in half.

 

I'm bracing for the worst.  I hope it will be better than that, but I'm braced for much worse.  

[drjim]

 

I'm bracing for the worst.  I hope it will be better than that, but I'm braced for much worse.  

 

I just don't see what "the worst" is for a corner outfielder that has people so worried.

 

If he gives up a few plays because of some hesitancy or so he doesn't get hurt that strikes me as an acceptable tradeoff. He'd miss more plays as a below average 3B. I think overall people are underrating the fact that Sano is a pretty decent athlete and the fact he is going to DH quite a bit.

 

I think he'll be about what we saw out of Arcia, probably even a little better because of the arm. Yes you would want a better defender, but it isn't an atrocity and you live with it because of the bat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why are we concerned about Sano getting injured in right? Did the Twins install landmines in the outfield this offseason?

 

I'm sure Miguel is perfectly capable of not getting injured while performing the rigorous task of "running several feet with one glove in the air".

 

I see no reason to believe the injury risk is any higher for him in RF than it is at third (it's probably lower).

 

Disclaimer: am no way am I defending Miguel Sano in the OF, as I think it's a bad decision... But there are plenty of legitimate reasons to dislike the decision without creating hypothetical injury situations.

[mnfanforlife]

 

If you don't like Trout comps - and I agree they're probably a bad idea - then use what I call the UFCAF (Upton Family Ceiling and Floor) system.

 

 

This is great. Byron's body type resembles BJ's more than Justin's. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I just don't see what "the worst" is for a corner outfielder that has people so worried.

 

If he gives up a few plays because of some hesitancy or so he doesn't get hurt that strikes me as an acceptable tradeoff. He'd miss more plays as a below average 3B. I think overall people are underrating the fact that Sano is a pretty decent athlete and the fact he is going to DH quite a bit.

 

I think he'll be about what we saw out of Arcia, probably even a little better because of the arm. Yes you would want a better defender, but it isn't an atrocity and you live with it because of the bat.

 

He could be Delmon and bad outfield play, when catastrophic, can have more singular impact on a game than a missed throw or an error.  We're talking about turning outs into triples.  

 

As for the second point, I really hate this point.  As if Sano's athleticism is only good enough for the outfield (and how dare anyone question it!) but athletic enough to play third and you get what amounts to "That guy? Athletic enough? Please!".  Congrats, you got your cake and you ate that sucker too.  

 

Personally, I think he can play both.  I also think the OF is generally easier to learn.  But this is not some kind of greater than/less than equation.  He's an absolute novice in the OF compared to having several years at 3B under his belt.  For 2016 I think that's about a wash.  Then the question comes in whether this move is permanent.  If it is, fine, play him in the OF.  If it's not....why aren't we investing in this kid's development as a defender at his future position?

 

But hey, at least some of you defending this have dropped the absurdity of making this squad more versatile.  The Twins just don't operate like that with their roster, at least not well.

[USAFChief]

I agree that if this is a temporary move, it's a really bad idea.

 

If Sano is moving off third for good, RF is a good place to put him. Corner outfield defense isn't critically important.