The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[jimmer]

 

Plenty of hitters have BABIP over .300 every year.  once he becomes a starter his K% will decrease a little along with that BABIP... You just overrate Hicks way to much

Saying over .300 isn't the same as saying over .350. You downplay the very high BABIP he posted when you do this. There's a big difference. Sustaining a BABIP that high is pretty unrealistic.  Even if he drops down to only .300 (still above league average), that drops his OPS pretty far. How do you know his K rate will decrease significantly?  And just because his K rate drops doesn't mean those all become hits, right?  

 

Oh, and the splits for home/away (OBP/BA).

[DaveW]

 

What the?

It's the same thinking that is going on in this thread:

"What do I care if Hicks becomes a stud in NYY, if he can improve catcher its all worth it!"

 

This notion others are saying of "well if all the other players are studs then teams know the Twins need to trade Hicks so it lowers his value" is false as well.

 

Everyone and their mothers knew the Patriots HAD to trade Cassel with Brady coming back, that didn't stop them from starting a bidding war and getting a good deal back in return.

 

If Hicks is playing a great CF, on pace for 20/20 (or better) and continues to improve, there would be plenty of takers at the deadline willing to give up good value (regardless of if Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all had .850+ OPS or not)

[DaveW]

 

experts also considered Hicks at best a 4th outfielder and before July they considered him gone.

[source needed]

[twinsnorth49]

It's the same thinking that is going on in this thread:

"What do I care if Hicks becomes a stud in NYY, if he can improve catcher its all worth it!"

 

This notion others are saying of "well if all the other players are studs then teams know the Twins need to trade Hicks so it lowers his value" is false as well.

 

Everyone and their mothers knew the Patriots HAD to trade Cassel with Brady coming back, that didn't stop them from starting a bidding war and getting a good deal back in return.

 

If Hicks is playing a great CF, on pace for 20/20 (or better) and continues to improve, there would be plenty of takers at the deadline willing to give up good value (regardless of if Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all had .850+ OPS or not)

Big "if" Dave, that's all.

[jokin]

 

the thing here is the Twins didn't make this trade to make Murphy the back up. He will start.

 

I need evidence to back up that claim. Until then, I will assume that Suzuki will play the lion's share of the innings- the Twins obviously seem enamored with his toughness and leadership abilities, as it can't be for the more tangible factors. 

[twinsnorth49]

I need evidence to back up that claim. Until then, I will assume that Suzuki will play the lion's share of the innings- the Twins obviously seem enamored with his toughness and leadership abilities, as it can't be for the more tangible factors.

We have evidence Suzuki will play 130 games?

 

I think the Twins genuinely want to reduce that number, or this wouldn't have happened.

[jsteve96]

 

It's the same thinking that is going on in this thread:

"What do I care if Hicks becomes a stud in NYY, if he can improve catcher its all worth it!"

 

This notion others are saying of "well if all the other players are studs then teams know the Twins need to trade Hicks so it lowers his value" is false as well.

 

Everyone and their mothers knew the Patriots HAD to trade Cassel with Brady coming back, that didn't stop them from starting a bidding war and getting a good deal back in return.

 

If Hicks is playing a great CF, on pace for 20/20 (or better) and continues to improve, there would be plenty of takers at the deadline willing to give up good value (regardless of if Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all had .850+ OPS or not)

they don't think he is. besides the 1 month in July he hasn't shown it either

[jokin]

 

We have evidence Suzuki will play 130 games?

I think the Twins genuinely want to reduce that number, or this wouldn't have happened.

 

Suzuki played 131 games with 479 PAs. His option vests in 2016 with 485 PAs.  I'm guessing that he will come in at around 115-125 games- it's the Twins Way.

[DaveW]

I don't think Suzuki gets anywhere close to 450 PA, I think Murphy starts at least 100 games if healthy.

[jimmer]

funny joke, but I already like Buxton quite a bit.  I am high on his potential.  I have said numerous times I see him as a (hopefully) healthy version of Eric Davis.  That's who he reminds me of.  I can still like Hicks too :-)

[jokin]

 

they don't think he is. besides the 1 month in July he hasn't shown it either

 

From Forbes and ESPN, Brian Cashman believes vastly differently, he seems to have watched more closely and appreciated what transpired in 2015 with Hicks more than the Twins did:

 

 

“We believe he’s an everyday player.”

 

“He’s a player who’s been perceived at a high level for a long time, and we believe he figured a lot of things out here in the past year,” Cashman said.

 

The GM cited Hicks' relationship with Torii Hunter, the former Twins outfielder, as key to his development this season, similar to how some Yankees veterans, like Rodriguez, took shortstop Didi Gregorius under their wings in 2015 to ease his transition to New York.

"The same way our guys helped Didi unlock some things, I think that's what Torii did for Hicks over there,'' Cashman said.

 

 

And Cashman has the recent track record to suggest his value judgments of up and coming (but struggling) players from other otganizations has been more than sound. 

[twinsnorth49]

From Forbes and ESPN, Brian Cashman believes vastly differently, he seems to have watched more closely and appreciated what transpired in 2015 with Hicks more than the Twins did:

 

 

 

And Cashman has the recent track record to suggest his value judgments of up and coming (but struggling) players from other otganizations has been more than sound.

You expected him to say something different? I'd expect him to say exactly that after just acquiring him.

[jokin]

 

"Jokin" is just a troll he knows Murphy was brought in to start but wants to piss everyone off lol

 

Again, please provide evidence that this is, in fact, the case,

 

Do you really have a single shred of evidence that the Twins will just hand over the starting role, and all of the responsibility that entails, to a 24-year old catcher who has never been a major league starter before, and who comes in relatively unheralded? And if he was all that important to the Yankees, why get rid of him with 5 years of player control left? 

[twinsnorth49]

Suzuki played 131 games with 479 PAs. His option vests in 2016 with 485 PAs. I'm guessing that he will come in at around 115-125 games- it's the Twins Way.

That's probably one of the higher bar vesting options out there next season. With so few actually vesting across the leafue in recent years, I'd be pretty surprised if this one did

[jokin]

 

You expected him to say something different? I'd expect him to say exactly that after just acquiring him.

 

The difference being, that he has a recent track record of great success in just such transactions.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't mind trading him, I mind trading him for such a small and low upside return.

This is exactly it. All you need to do is look at it from the Yankees perspective. They dealt a backup catcher for a not bad center fielder entering his prime.

[jokin]

 

That's probably one of the higher bar vesting options out there next season. With so few actually vesting across the leafue in recent years, I'd be pretty surprised if this one did

 

Suzuki won't vest, the Murphy deal ensures that to be the case.  But I'd look for the Twins to look to re-sign Suzuki at a lower price, especially if Garver, Turner and Pinto don't look to offer a great assurance of being an upgrade going into 2017.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Big "if" Dave, that's all.

But no if ands or buts... JR Murphy is da man

[jsteve96]

they got a league average catcher. i don't think you understand how hard those are to find.. and  to JOKIN, Aaron Hicks said that his success was do to him changing his swing and approach in AAA when they were just fooling around, good one with the Cashman quote about Torii

[twinsnorth49]

The difference being, that he has a recent track record of great success in just such transactions.

Meh, that doesn't mean much to me actually. He's not going to win them all.

[jokin]

 

Buxton will be the starting CF on opening day. He will have better offensive and defensive production than Hicks in each and every month for the rest of Hick's career, which will be half as long as Buxton's. His teammates will like him better than they liked Hicks. So will his coaches. So will all the fans out there. Except for jimmer and DaveW. 

 

Evidence to support this? Both Antony and to some extent, Ryan, are on record in saying that Buxton will start out in Rochester. I'd say that the best bet is that Rosario will be in CF on opening day.

 

You are completely missing the point, which is, the Twins needed to get more from this deal... and now they open 2016 with a greatly downgraded OF defense- to obtain a minor upgrade at catcher.

[jokin]

 

they got a league average catcher. i don't think you understand how hard those are to find.. and  to JOKIN, Aaron Hicks said that his success was do to him changing his swing and approach in AAA when they were just fooling around, good one with the Cashman quote about Torii

 

I do understand how hard catchers are to find.  That's why you have to shop around a lot harder, or bargain with more ferocity, than Ryan did in this case. 

 

(And I'll defer to Brian Cashman on this "dispute", his recent exemplary track record in obtaining undervalued talent is a lot better than yours or mine.)

[sane]

 

And if he was all that important to the Yankees, why get rid of him with 5 years of player control left? 

Because the Yankees have McCann, Gary Sanchez and Luis Torrens as catchers.

Without Zuki,/Pinto the Twins would have had no one to stop the pitches from rolling to the backstop.

[jsteve96]

 

I do understand how hard catchers are to find.  That's why you have to shop around a lot harder, or bargain with more ferocity, than Ryan did in this case. 

 

(And I'll defer Brian Cashman on this "dispute", his recent exemplary track record in obtaining undervalued talent is a lot better than yours or mine.)

thinking a GM didn't look around enough SMH

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Murphy is "NOT good" he's slightly above average defensively according to fangraphs and the bat isn't anything special you're right.

 

Maybe you are thinking of another source besides Fangraphs. Murphy caught 415 innings in 2015. When I filtered Fangraphs for catchers who caught minimum 400 innings, Murphy came up 42 out of 44 defensively. Equally as bad the previous year.

[jokin]

 

Meh, that doesn't mean much to me actually. He's not going to win them all.

 

Let's put the shoe on the other foot.  When was the last time Terry Ryan traded a MiLB journeyman Shane Green clone for a MLB underperformer who suddenly became a 3.5 WAR SS for the Yanks (Gregorius)?  (The closest TR could come to that type of trade was trading a proven near ace in- Liriano for Escobar- whose top WAR for the Twins is 2,0 WAR.

 

I'll go with the guy with the track record.

[jokin]

 

Because the Yankees have McCann, Gary Sanchez and Luis Torrens as catchers.

Without Zuki,/Pinto the Twins would have had no one to stop the pitches from rolling to the backstop.

 

So the Twins get the guy the Yankees HAD to dump? Not sure how that's something to brag about in the press guide.

[jokin]

 

Maybe you are thinking of another source besides Fangraphs. Murphy caught 415 innings in 2015. When I filtered Fangraphs for catchers who caught minimum 400 innings, Murphy came up 42 out of 44 defensively. Equally as bad the previous year.

 

Yeah... those are the numbers that negatively sealed the deal for me.  And which also seem to be par for the course for this organization. I'm waiting for the usual rationalizations at the press conference about sabremetrics being disregarded in this case, due to Twins scouts watching Murphy play dozens of times over the last 3 seasons and seeing him always giving a pretty good showing out there, "better than the numbers indicate."

[jokin]

 

thinking a GM didn't look around enough SMH

 

Again, provide evidence to the contrary. The Twins are regarded as having one of the top 3 or 5 farm systems in all of baseball. Since all of the prospects can't fit onto a 40-man roster, it seems incumbent on the Twins to deal from their position of strength and expend an extra prospect or two in a package deal to get an elite catcher, not a back-up. But you'll just keep shaking your head.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah... those are the numbers that negatively sealed the deal for me.  And which also seem to be par for the course for this organization. I'm waiting for the usual rationalizations at the press conference about sabremetrics being disregarded in this case, due to Twins scouts watching Murphy play dozens of times over the last 3 seasons and seeing him always giving a pretty good showing out there, "better than the numbers indicate."

Admittedly, the catching position is the final frontier in analytics and very hard to get a grip on. There are intangibles such as Suzuki brings and they don't capture framing well, from what I understand. But sheesh wouldn't you like to see the guy show up a little higher maybe? There usually aren't many surprises at the tops of those catcher lists so you assume they give you a good general idea on a guy.