Article: That's The Ticket: Star Power

[Nick Nelson]

A debate began stirring last week surrounding the National League MVP race, spurred by a column from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports arguing that Yoenis Cespedes deserves consideration for the honor despite spending more than half of the season in the AL.

 

It's a rather ludicrous take, considering Bryce Harper's unparalleled body of work this season, but it does raise an interesting question -- how should we weigh the impact of tremendous production over a short span against a full season's worth of output?

 

With the Angels coming into town for a showdown between two of the game's best young power hitters, it's a relevant subject.The Harper vs. Cespedes argument can be mirrored, in some ways, on the AL side by Mike Trout and Miguel Sano. Trout is by no means the runaway candidate that Harper is, but he has a good shot at capturing his second straight MVP. He's hitting .292/.393/.572 and his next home run (No. 37) will surpass his 2014 total and set a career high.

 

Trout's main drawback, right or wrong, might be the state of his team. At 73-72, the Angels trail both Minnesota and Houston in the race for the second wild-card, and unless they can do some major damage at Target Field this week, they'll be extreme longshots for the postseason. Making it to October has often been a decisive factor in close MVP races of the past.

 

Now, to be clear, I don't expect Sano to gather any real MVP steam. Although his power has revitalized the Twins lineup, his impact can't even be compared to Cespedes, whose unbelievable performance since arriving in New York has coincided with a complete turnaround of the Mets' once hapless offense.

 

However, if he can help push the Twins to their first playoff berth in five years, I would be curious to see if Sano receives any down-ballot votes. And I'd also be very curious to see if it would enable him to edge Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor in the Rookie of the Year race. A big series this weekend would do much to help his case.

 

Power Couple

 

Fans at Target Field this week will be witness to a rare display of young power-hitting talent. Dating back to his rookie year in 2012, the 24-year-old Trout ranks fifth in all of baseball with 129 home runs. Meanwhile, Sano has the most home runs through 63 games for any player in Minnesota history, and his .571 slugging percentage is seventh-highest in the majors among players with 250 or more plate appearances.

 

These kids are both going to hit a lot of homers over the next decade. How many will they hit in this crucial four-game set?

 

Let's take a look at the hurlers they'll be going up against.

 

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

 

Thursday, 7:10 PM: LHP Hector Santiago vs. LHP Tommy Milone

 

Coming off a pair of tremendous outings to start the month of September, Milone was once again cruising his last time out, holding the White Sox scoreless through the first three innings. Then, everything fell apart. Six straight batters reached to open the fourth and by the time all was said and done, Milone was charged with seven runs (four earned) and the Twins were blown out. He'll be looking to rebound, and fortunately his chances to do so are good, as Milone has a 2.66 ERA in his last seven turns at Target Field.

 

He'll have a tough opponent in Santiago, who has been one of the league's more underrated starters this season with a 3.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 148-to-59 K/BB ratio over 165 innings. The good news is that the lefty has been struggling since the All-Star break (4.89 ERA, 11 homers allowed) and has more walks than strikeouts in his last five starts. His current innings total represents a career-high workload so it's possible Santiago is wearing down.

 

Friday, 7:10 PM: LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

 

Heaney was taken by the Marlins with the ninth overall pick in the 2012 draft and he's already switched places twice since, first heading to the Dodgers in last December's Dan Haren deal before immediately being flipped to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. He's enjoying an excellent rookie year, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts. Like Santiago, though, Heaney has scuffled in recent weeks. He started his MLB career with six straight quality starts but has just three in nine tries since.

 

Gibson is a guy the Twins are going to be leaning on heavily in this tight wild-card race. They need him to bring it every time he takes the mound, and he certainly delivered last time, taking a shutout into the eighth in Chicago. Gibson hasn't given up a home run in a calendar month (five starts) but he'll need to tread carefully with the likes of Trout and Albert Pujols, who are tied for fourth in the AL with 35 jacks apiece.

 

Saturday, 6:10 PM: RHP Garrett Richards vs. RHP Mike Pelfrey

 

Pelfrey is the weak link in the Minnesota rotation at this point, with the lowest K-rate and the highest WHIP among Twins starters. He has failed to complete six innings in any of his past five starts. The hitters are going to need to bring it against the hard-throwing Richards, who has been solid yet inconsistent for the Halos following a breakout 2014 campaign. Richards leads the majors in wild pitches after doing the same last year, so that's worth keeping an eye on.

 

Sunday, 1:10 PM: RHP Matt Shoemaker vs. RHP Phil Hughes

 

Shoemaker's seven starts since the break:

 

7/21 vs. MIN: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 10 K

7/30 @ HOU: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 7 K

8/4 vs. CLE: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 10 K

8/10 @ CWS: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 3 K

8/15 @ KC: 1.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 0 K

8/27 @ DET: 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K

9/1 @ OAK: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K

 

When he's been on – and that's been frequent lately – he's been nearly unhittable. But both of his duds during that span came on the road against AL Central opponents. And as you can see, he hasn't pitched since September 1st due to a forearm strain, so it's tough to know what to expect.

 

Right now it looks like he'll be facing another starter freshly returned from injury hiatus. Hughes wasn't terribly effective in his first start off the DL on Wednesday, requiring 65 pitches to get through three innings, but the hope is that he'll be stronger and sharper as he regains his groove. The Twins need him to do so badly right now. Paul Molitor has left open the possibility that Tyler Duffey could pitch this game as well, though his workload is becoming a consideration.

 

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[bizaff]

I thought I heard on the TV broadcast last night that Phil Hughes's next start would be pushed back.

[Nick Nelson]

Yep, you're right, I missed that news. Probably a positive development for anyone thinking about attending Sunday's game. 

[SF Twins Fan]

After last nights loss this will be a pivotal series for the Twins. If they can take at least 3 out of 4 and Houston continues to slide the Twins might be able to pull even. Houston has another game against Texas tonight and then plays Oakland this weekend. 

[Rosterman]

Don't let Pelfrey go mroe than five innings. If you want to limit Duffey, youc an do that, too. But then the Twins have to hope Noalsco comes back this weekend Darnell and May get better, and the manager will trust Tonkin, Albers, O'Rourke and even Duensing.