Will Sano get some MVP votes?

[John Bonnes]

My favorite metric for MVP is Win Probability Added. It best measures how fans think about the MVP - it goes beyond the overall stats and adds the context of the hits. Were they big hits, that lead to wins, or empty home runs, to extend a five-run lead. (They don't, however, take into account fielding.)

 

Sure enough, Sano, in his couple months with the Twins, leads the team with a 2.53 WPA. But that's about 30th overall in the AL. So it's hard to say.

 

However, I wonder if there is an additional context that would be even more valuable with WPA. WPA measures the probability of adding to a win, and so late game hits in close games provide additional value.

 

But what if there was a metric called "Playoff Probability Added"? Similar to WPA, PPA would measure how much a player adds to his team's probability of making the playoffs. If that metric existed, I think his performance would be getting a lot of extra credit, as it is happening late in the season for a team in a close playoff race. 

 

And just like the MVP vote often reflects WPA, I think the MVP vote would even better reflect PPA. Writers follow this stuff and know that Sano has become a driving force for the Twins to make the postseason. His gaudy HR and RBI numbers in limited time can only help him, too. If the Twins sneak into the wild card game, especially if he has a big couple weeks in September, I have no doubt he'll be listed as a "dark horse" MVP candidate and get votes. 

 

And if PPA existed, I think we could statistically show that he really should be. 

[Squirrel]

If the Twins don't make the playoffs, I don't think he gets any consideration. For me, it's about how much he was a factor in the Twins getting there. It's difficult for me to place an award on someone for the Twins almost getting there. Perhaps he'll get some RoY consideration, however, he's been primarily a DH for us, and for me, that is a negative when considering these awards.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

However, I wonder if there is an additional context that would be even more valuable with WPA. WPA measures the probability of adding to a win, and so late game hits in close games provide additional value.

 

But what if there was a metric called "Playoff Probability Added"? Similar to WPA, PPA would measure how much a player adds to his team's probability of making the playoffs. If that metric existed, I think his performance would be getting a lot of extra credit, as it is happening late in the season for a team in a close playoff race. 

 

And just like the MVP vote often reflects WPA, I think the MVP vote would even better reflect PPA. Writers follow this stuff and know that Sano has become a driving force for the Twins to make the postseason. His gaudy HR and RBI numbers in limited time can only help him, too. If the Twins sneak into the wild card game, especially if he has a big couple weeks in September, I have no doubt he'll be listed as a "dark horse" MVP candidate and get votes. 

 

And if PPA existed, I think we could statistically show that he really should be. 

I know it has been proposed and calculated before -- Bill James talked about Pennants Added, and there are a few articles using the metric name Playoff/Postseason Probability Added -- just doesn't seem to be currently available anywhere.

 

Someone at TD should do the math to promote Sano before MVP voting season concludes!

[USAFChief]

I know it has been proposed and calculated before -- Bill James talked about Pennants Added, and there are a few articles using the metric name Playoff/Postseason Probability Added -- just doesn't seem to be currently available anywhere.

 

Someone at TD should do the math to promote Sano before MVP voting season concludes!

But get Sano signed through 2030 before his agent sees that math!!

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

Sure enough, Sano, in his couple months with the Twins, leads the team with a 2.53 WPA. But that's about 30th overall in the AL. So it's hard to say.

 

About 20-30 guys generally get votes, so in that metric he's closing in.

 

I have another thought that is in the same vein as the question, "Should have a season be enough for MVP consideration?": 

 

Does Brian Dozier get MVP votes?  He surely would have for his 1st half.

 

What's more valuable, one strong half and a poor second half, or one strong half and an NA for the other half?  Because there likely will be guys like Dozier (if not Dozier himself) getting MVP votes, guys who were solid for one part of the year and a liability the other half.

[DaveW]

How I would vote:

1. Donaldson

2. Cruz

3. Trout

4. Cain

5. Machado

6. big tex

7. Bautista

8. Miggy

9. Sano

10. Altuvie

[Wyorev]

My auto correct suggests Sanyo...

I don't think Sano even deserves ROY votes. Not number 1 or 2 at least...

Its a long season.

However, when all is said and done - Sano may be MVP of the Twins.

May be...

[Squirrel]

 

My auto correct suggests Sanyo...

I don't think Sano even deserves ROY votes. Not number 1 or 2 at least...

Its a long season.

However, when all is said and done - Sano may be MVP of the Twins.

May be...

I would actually argue that Dozier is a better candidate for MVP of the team.