Article: That's The Ticket: Juggled Rotation Must Compete

[John Bonnes]

One of the more exciting aspects of this year’s trade deadline was the number of ace pitchers available. A bonanza like that comes around once every….what, 20 years? And yet the Twins’ starting rotation was so flush that they moved their most promising young starter to the bullpen.

 

That was fun for, oh, 24 hours.Two days later, starting pitcher Tommy Milone was on the DL. This week, Phil Hughes joined him. And there is at least one other Twins starting pitcher about whom we should be concerned.*

 

*Yup, I’m talking about Ervin Santana, who has only made eight starts. And here are his strikeout numbers in those eight starts:

8K in 8 IP (9K/9)

5K in 4 IP (11.3K/9)

1K in 7.2 IP (1.2 K/9)

8K in 8 IP (9K/9)

3K in 5.2 IP (4.8K/9)

2K in 6 IP (3K/9)

1K in 2.1 IP (3.9K/9)

1K in 6 IP (1.5K/9)

 

See how that strikeout rate drops off drastically after the fourth start? Most times I’ve seen that, the player, within a few weeks, takes time off with an injury. I have very little doubt that Santana is hurt. The alternate theory is that he is now off PEDs, but he isn’t putting up those totals early if that was the issue. And what is really worrisome is that his problem appears to be his control, more than his “stuff.” Control is where the elbow comes in….

 

So the Twins are using that depth to start papering over those issues – but their latest choice may have already cost them a game yesterday to the Rangers. Here’s the breakdown….

 

Hughes was due to start Friday’s game. Saturday’s game was open because none of the current starters would have had four days rest and Milone can’t come off the 15-day DL until Sunday, so he was due to start that game.

 

To fill the open slot on Saturday, the Twins planned on Tyler Duffey, who Twins fans last saw a little over a week ago when he was getting shelled by the Blue Jays.

 

Choosing Duffey makes some sense:

1) He’s already on the 40-man roster, because he was added for that last start.

2) He’s legit. He’s not necessarily a top of the rotation guy, but his numbers and rise through the organization demonstrate he’s on track for a middle/back end of the rotation major league career.

3) Don’t worry about him getting the crap kicked out of him by the Blue Jays in his first start. First, it was the Blue Jays, who are on fire. And second, it was his first MLB start. They don’t always go well, and it means nothing. Just ask Trevor May. And speaking of May….

 

He’s the choice for Friday’s start. Turning to him is good news in a way: it likely means the Twins think Hughes will be back after just 15 days. If they were more worried, they likely would have turned to JO Berrios, the top pitching prospect in the organization, who isn’t on the 40-man roster.

 

Their hesitation to add Berrios to the 40-man roster for what will likely be only a start or two is frustrating for those of us eager to see him. And the Twins have already paid a price for their timidity. Choosing May meant he wasn’t available for Wednesday’s close game with the Rangers. May usually pitches the eighth inning, but this time it was Casey Fien, who let in the tie-breaking run in the Rangers 6-5 victory.

 

The bad news is that the Twins are likely outgunned on the mound for each game in this series. The good news is that you’re going to get a taste of the Twins that could be the backbone of this rotation in 2017.

 

This is a big series for the Twins – hell, every series is right now. It’s unfortunate they are trying to patch together a starting rotation as they try to chase wild card teams. But the patches they are using are a long way from the patches they have used in previous years. Remember Johan Pino and P.J. Walters? Like that indy band that you saw before they got big, this weekend provides a chance to say “I saw them back when….”

 

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[Otto von Ballpark]

John, Duffey would have been ineligible to start Saturday until Hughes went on the DL. He wasn't optioned out until August 6-7, and he couldn't be recalled before 10 days unless someone went to the DL.

 

So the original plan for Saturday was probably May / bullpen game. Which they then had to move up to Friday to accommodate Duffey (who will still be one day short of normal rest on Saturday).

 

Funny you bring up Pino and Walters as examples of more disappointing past patches, when both were called up ahead of more promising pitchers in May and Gibson (Walters in 2013, at least). Hopefully Duffey does not become that footnote to Berrios, although the wild card race we are in will magnify this decision more than the Pino/Walters ones.

Edited August 14, 2015 by spycake

[tobi0040]

"Their hesitation to add Berrios to the 40-man roster for what will likely be only a start or two is frustrating for those of us eager to see him."

 

It is pretty nonsensical that the 40 man would be an issue.  For one, I think we are at 39 as Fryer is off now.

 

Secondly, the 40 man is littered with a bunch of players that we know right now are not helping the current team and have very little shot of being on the 40 man next year.  The most obvious is Pinto.  It is fairly clear we have no clue what we are going to do with him, don't view him as a catcher or a DH.  If we view him as the DH, he has to be about 5th in line there.

 

A few other guys not likely to be on the 40 man next year.  Wheeler, Duensing, Robsinson, Darnell, and Thompson.  Obviously Pelfrey but they think he is helping right now.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, who really needs 40-man protection this winter?  Here's the list of new 2015 40-man eligibles from Jeremy's org chart (hasn't been updated since the winter, but probably pretty good for this purpose):

 

Bard, Luke
Baxendale, D.J.
Duffey, Tyler
Haar, Bryan
Harrison, Travis
Hicks, Dalton
Jones, Zack
Melotakis, Mason
Muren, Alexander
Polanco, Joel
Rogers, Taylor
Valera, Rafael
Vielma, Engelb
Wade, Logan
Walker, Adam

 

J.T. Chargois wasn't on the list, I guess he was injured so long.

 

Duffey's already been added, but otherwise, I think only Rogers, Chargois, Baxendale, Walker, and Vielma are doing much of anything at their current levels, and Rogers might be the only one who'd be a likely Rule 5 pick.  Not a lot of holdovers distinguishing themselves either (Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, etc.).

 

Given the FA and chaff currently on the 40-man, there shouldn't be a roster crunch this winter.

[tobi0040]

 

Yeah, who really needs 40-man protection this winter?  Here's the list of new 2015 40-man eligibles from Jeremy's org chart (hasn't been updated since the winter, but probably pretty good for this purpose):

 

Bard, Luke
Baxendale, D.J.
Duffey, Tyler
Haar, Bryan
Harrison, Travis
Hicks, Dalton
Jones, Zack
Melotakis, Mason
Muren, Alexander
Polanco, Joel
Rogers, Taylor
Valera, Rafael
Vielma, Engelb
Wade, Logan
Walker, Adam

 

J.T. Chargois wasn't on the list, I guess he was injured so long.

 

Duffey's already been added, but otherwise, I think only Rogers, Chargois, Baxendale, Walker, and Vielma are doing much of anything at their current levels, and Rogers might be the only one who'd be a likely Rule 5 pick.  Not a lot of holdovers distinguishing themselves either (Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, etc.).

 

Given the FA and chaff currently on the 40-man, there shouldn't be a roster crunch this winter.

 

Not the most inspiring list Spy!

 

Hunter, Pelfrey, Boyer, Duensing, and Robinson have no business being here next year. That is five from the 25 man.   Most could be replaced by guys already on the 40 man, save Berrios.

 

[jimbo92107]

 

John, Duffey would have been ineligible to start Saturday until Hughes went on the DL. He wasn't optioned out until August 6-7, and he couldn't be recalled before 10 days unless someone went to the DL.

So the original plan for Saturday was probably May / bullpen game. Which they then had to move up to Friday to accommodate Duffey (who will still be one day short of normal rest on Saturday).

Funny you bring up Pino and Walters as examples of more disappointing past patches, when both were called up ahead of more promising pitchers in May and Gibson (Walters in 2013, at least). Hopefully Duffey does not become that footnote to Berrios, although the wild card race we are in will magnify this decision more than the Pino/Walters ones.

I'm pretty confident in what I saw of Tyler Duffey against the Blue Jays. His stuff is very good, although his command was destroyed by the pressure of his first start and facing a killer first six for the Jays.

 

Otherwise, Duffey is a big, strong guy built a lot like Trevor May. Good tilt on his breaking stuff, downward plane on his fastball, mostly keeps the ball low in the zone. All good signs. I expect him to be what he was in the minors, a horse.

[John Bonnes]

FWIW, I'm pretty disappointed that we aren't seeing Berrios this weekend. I'm also a little surprised. But if Santana is really hurt, maybe that will give JO his chance. 

[USAFChief]

Well, tonight went well.

 

Duffey on short rest Saturday sounds promising, too.

[Mike Sixel]

Beerios.....is not ready. That is what Ryan said.......ugh.