So ... Do You Believe?

[kellyvance]

All last off season, I kept posting "Let the kids play."  Glad to see they are doing that. Hard to tell if a team with several rookies will have staying power, but I totally agree that in a short series, our better than average pitchers will be at a disadvantage over a Price, Verlander and Sanchez three man.

 

Gibson is really getting it together. May looks like the new set up man. Pelfrey is a risk to implode. Milone is a #5. Hughes and Ervin need to come through in the second half for us to contend. Rickey, sorry bud, but we got other guys.

 

I like the OF as presently constituted. It will come down to Arcia or Bux after the break. If Waldo is still hot, he gets the nod. Bux will be back tho. Time to jettison the last remaining placeholder, but thanks for the help Robbie.

[Buford_T_Justice]

Totally agree that we would be at a disadvantage if we ran into the Tigers in the postseason. However, Detroit is at .500 right now with a -15 run differential. They're tied with Baltimore and behind Tampa and Houston for the 2nd wildcard. I'm not convinced they will make it to the playoffs.

[jimbo92107]

 

Totally agree that we would be at a disadvantage if we ran into the Tigers in the postseason. However, Detroit is at .500 right now with a -15 run differential. They're tied with Baltimore and behind Tampa and Houston for the 2nd wildcard. I'm not convinced they will make it to the playoffs.

Tigers is just one example. Problem is, most playoff teams are going to have at least one ace that the Twins can't counter with one of their own. Major disadvantage.

 

Two years from now, things could be very different. JO Berrios will be a starter, and Alex Meyer may miraculously develop command, tho it wouldn't surprise me if it took him another four years to finally stop walking people, then throwing cookies down the middle. What I saw in his sip of coffee was a tall, very awkward, immature pitcher, with great stuff but almost zero command. And he doesn't know how to hold runners either, which doesn't bode well for a reliever.

 

On the other hand, the minor league system has several interesting guys that might get better. Dr. Hu might become another Tommy Milone, with a few more mph. Gonsalves might be up. Rogers and Taylor could be there. And of course, Tyler Jay, in some capacity.

 

I'm going to make a wild prediction: Alex Wimmers will be in the starting rotation two years from now, and he'll be really good.

 

 

[woolywoolhouse]

The Twins are heading into the All Star Break with a 49-40 record. The same record as when they entered into the All-Star Break in 1987 (a year they also were picked to finish last or near-last, introduced a rookie manager, new uniforms, etc.) Lots of similarities. And yes, history means nothing in a sport where your record a month ago can mean little to the present standings... but it's fun to think about!

 

Ooh... and that All Star Break began on Monday, July 13th, too!

[stringer bell]

As long as the starting pitching holds up, the Twins will not sink like the '11 Pirates. There is certainly a possibility that they fade, especially if the bullpen isn't addressed. I don't think they are a cinch to avoid the basement of the Central--I think it is possible all five teams finish above .500. That said, they are in position to challenge all season.

[joepunman]

Put me down as a believer. Looking back at their history, the Twins are a team that in the second half, if they've been doing well, they continue doing well, if they're not doing well, they fade, and fast. 

 

They seem to have more depth this year then I've seen in many years.  Meaning that when a piece goes down, we're not completely helpless.  Offensively, Dozier has been awesome, Sano's been a great kickstart, Rosario seems to be somewhat steady, and Plouffe and Hunter have been contributing their fair share.  Now, if Mauer could get back to his old self, that would make it even better.

 

I am more concerned about the pitching, as they don't have that "ace."  But even the Dodgers had Kershaw last year, and he was awful come playoff time.  Anything can happen in the playoffs. 

 

Trade Deadline wishlist: More bullpen help.  Perhaps another high-end starter.  Willing to let Arcia, Vargas, Milone, Meyer go as part of a deal. 

[DocBauer]

90 wins. Winning % at the break had them on pace for 89. Take away the just horrendously embarrassing and g-awful first week of the season...(how the hell did that Twins team win that one game anyway?)...and the percentages bump up slightly. We play full seasons for reasons. But at this point, I think the Twins are as they appear: a quality baseball team, well managed, coached and lead overall who are greater than the sum of their parts. (Not that some of those parts don't have some pretty vast potential!)

 

Ironic that for years the Twins have had...arguably...a good to top bullpen year after year, often to have it fall apart in the latter stages of the season the past few seasons due to overwork. (Again...arguable, but we've stood our varying grounds on this topic before) And now that the Twins have the rotation and depth that they haven't had in years, the bullpen might be the team's weakest component.

 

Why this team will win 90 games and make the playoffs:

 

1) The starting staff is pitching well. Better than in years. Could the wheels come off? Sure they could. But the whole SSS and "anyone can get hot for a few starts" theory is out the window now. I'd argue the rotation is actually better when/if May slides back in.

 

2) FA pickup or trade, Ryan WILL make some kind of move to help the bullpen. And let's be honest, no matter how average or high you want to rank Twins bullpen maneuvers over the years, they've hit a lot more than they missed. TR will not make some dramatic gesture. But he doesn't have to. The milb depth is more than strong enough to allow the movement of a couple nice bodies...without trading a top prospect...to acquire a quality RP with controllable team options, OR, a contract for a vet FA like Chamberlain OR a bag-of-balls trade for a vet that a team would like to move to shed salary are all realistic options to improve the bullpen without real sacrifice. I admit to being torn on nothing for a short term rental/1-year vet vs a solid prospect or two for a 3-4 year option.

 

*is there someone out there that could really use a quality Pelfrey in their rotation to help their playoff push that has bullpen depth to give back to the Twins?

 

3) This team has already had hot streaks and cold streaks, ups and downs, thrills and disappointments, unexpected downturns and upticks in individual performance enough to prove they are an even keel team. Again, I think they've shown who and what they are, and I don't look for major regression or surging from anyone to really knock them off course at this point...one way or another.

[curt1965]

The first trip out of the gate will tell a lot. The series with the A's and Gray, then the division leading Angels, will be tough. Getting off to a good start could be the impetus to a playoff run!

I'm looking a 3 players to be the key: Danny Santana, Trevor May, and Oswaldo Arcia.

I think Danny returns to his hitting form of 2014, and his fielding will anchor the infield defense. If Trevor May can be the 8th inning guy, look out! And if Waldo can achieve some of his potential, the lineup could be dangerous. When will he be called up, though?

No predictions from me, however, only an echo to what everyone has already indicated. Baseball is back in the TwinCities, and hopefully the fun continues!

[blairpaul715]

 

Tigers is just one example. Problem is, most playoff teams are going to have at least one ace that the Twins can't counter with one of their own. Major disadvantage.

 

Two years from now, things could be very different. JO Berrios will be a starter, and Alex Meyer may miraculously develop command, tho it wouldn't surprise me if it took him another four years to finally stop walking people, then throwing cookies down the middle. What I saw in his sip of coffee was a tall, very awkward, immature pitcher, with great stuff but almost zero command. And he doesn't know how to hold runners either, which doesn't bode well for a reliever.

 

On the other hand, the minor league system has several interesting guys that might get better. Dr. Hu might become another Tommy Milone, with a few more mph. Gonsalves might be up. Rogers and Taylor could be there. And of course, Tyler Jay, in some capacity.

 

I'm going to make a wild prediction: Alex Wimmers will be in the starting rotation two years from now, and he'll be really good.

I like when someone makes bold predictions, i occasionally do that too

[DocBauer]

To avoid posting multiple quotes, would just like to address a couple points quickly.

 

1) D Santana. I still really like this kid and his potential a lot. I really felt he'd make mistakes, but play a solid enough SS to stick there. Felt his AVG would drop, but contact and BB would increase to compensate. He has absolutely been my biggest disappointment this season. (Vargas just behind him) I have absolutely not given up on him, his talent, his coachability or his work ethic. But I am wondering a bit about patience bs ideal role/position going forward. He's been showing more lately, and could be a huge difference maker the second half. If not, shouldn't Escobar get extended time?

 

No matter how big a fan of Santana, I'm still not sure Polanco isn't the next starting SS for the Twins. Some errors in the minors? Please. It wouldn't take more than a few minutes of reflection, memory and research to show how many "great" ML SS's had big error years in the minors as well as their first few years in the majors. I believe he may be the future, but Santana has the ability to say a lot about it the rest of the way.

 

2) No offense to Robinson, who had a surprisingly good first month, has done the best he can since then, appears to be a good guy, and has had a really rough year with his daghter's health situation, but what role does he play on this team? Rosario has proven how well he can play all 3 OF spots, Hicks is in CF, Hunter in RF, Buxton will be back sometime in the next few weeks, Santana can play CF if you need, right or wrong Escobar and Nunez have played some LF, and September is a month and a half away. So again, what role does Robinson fill? Emergency, emergency OF? The enigmatic Arcia isn't perfect to be sure, but he remains long on talent and potential, has shown glimpses and flashes before, and is starting to show something at Rochster. I don't know if his Twins futures the remainder of this year, potential trade bait, or long term starting corner OF or long term backup corner OF/LHDH. But I know he offers something while Robinson doesn't.

 

3) Happy if May can contribute in the short term to the bullpen as we enjoy a very solid and overbooked rotation. But, sorry, this team is better short term and long term with him in the rotation. I don't have the ONE answer as no-one is going to take short timer Pelfrey for a top young SU man with multiple years of team control. But maybe, for now, there is a short term veteran a team could and would part with for him. Or a bag of balls. Or perhaps TR will trade a couple solid "20's-ish" prospects that another team would covet and yet not hurt the Twins for that quality young SU reliever. Or maybe we'll just sign Chamberlain, or someone similar, and fill the role with a contract. Regardless, 2 things need to take place.

1a) Get May back in the rotation.

2b) Regardless of short term or long term, find another RP. (A healthy Pressly further helps)

 

4) After all the screaming, crying, angry, distraught, hopeful, speculative debate, arguement, hand-wringing of the past four 90 loss seasons, our Twins are winning...have the second best record in the AL as of NOW...could EASILY be a couple games better if not for a massive offensive and bullpen slump that seemed to oddly happen simultaneously...and some are bent out of shape the Twins might not have an ACE caliber SP to compete in the post season with the likes of some of the competition a full year before most if not everyone thought they might be reasonably competitive. Really guys? Your underwear fits that tightly? (Snicker) Relax a bit and enjoy.