Article: Extension Candidate: Oswaldo Arcia

[Mike Sixel]

 

It isn't the money though, if the Twins had him signed for five years I think they would play him over someone like Rosario even if it was hurting the club.  If Pelfrey got 160 IP last year when he was less than two years away from his contract ending.......imagine a guy five years away.

 

that is also a risk......and I don't get the Pelfrey thing, but they have cut bait recently on bad deals. I hold out belief they'd do that here. But, I agree, that is a risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Heck, Nelson Cruz signed for $14.25M a year in free agency. How much do we think that first or second free agent year is going to cost us if we wait? Jeremy's post has $9M and $11M. Assume some inflation and it seems like we are paying $20M now to save $5-6M a year for a year or two....again on a team that should not have a large payroll. Mauer isn't making $23M anymore, almost the entire team is under control. Nolasco is gone by then. Salaries will escalate, so will cable contracts, ticket prices, jerseys, the value of the Twins, and the price of a beer.

It's not so much the money as the years. If he is any good, you aren't getting any of Arcia's free agent years without a 4+ year, ~$60 mil type commitment. But I agree, the stats don't presently suggest he will be very good, or even if he is, he might be so one-dimensional it could suppress his future value.

 

The guy we should have been aggressive on, though, was Dozier last winter. Encouraging performance, defense/positional value to fall back on, two years away from arb... We could have a much better deal than just 4/20, like 5/30 plus team options.

[stringer bell]

LEN3 made a hint that Reusse will be saying tomorrow that there is a chance that Rosario will be the starting left fielder when the Twins visit Detroit.  That would mean either Vargas to the minors (with Arcia the primary DH) or Arcia to the minors.  It could render all the extension talk moot.  Even 15 days in the minors would put Arcia below the presumed Super 2 threshold. 

[tobi0040]

Agreed spy.

 

Nice discussion as always mike.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even 15 days in the minors would put Arcia below the presumed Super 2 threshold.

Actually, 20 days or fewer in the minors and he still gets credit for a whole year. That's what happened to him in 2014 (he only had about 10 days on optional assignment last May).

 

So he would need at least 21 to safely avoid Super 2. Of course, if he is in the minors at all this season, it probably suggests a player not worth an extension...

[ashbury]

 

That's the question.....do you bet on the upside, and take on some minor financial risk, or do you wait for you next card to come, when everyone else at the table has already raised you three times?

 

In the latter case, you are more sure if you should stay in, but it costs a lot more. 

A business person I highly respect told me years ago that Poker is a terrible analogy for business decisions. Successful business people do not place "bets".

[tobi0040]

 

A business person I highly respect told me years ago that Poker is a terrible analogy for business decisions. Successful business people do not place "bets".

 

I think the term "bets" sounds speculative, like blindly betting on red or black.  But I would argue professional gamblers put at least as much calculation behind their wagers than many corporations do.

[ashbury]

Since I wasn't talking at all about calculation, I'll leave that tangent alone.

[tobi0040]

 

Since I wasn't talking at all about calculation, I'll leave that tangent alone.

 

OK.  I guess I assumed any extension involves some level of calculation of the odds of different scenario's regarding said players performance

[Mike Sixel]

 

A business person I highly respect told me years ago that Poker is a terrible analogy for business decisions. Successful business people do not place "bets".

 

Bet is a loaded word........true. I don't think this is a "bet", but a decision based on odds, like all decisions.

[ashbury]

 

Bet is a loaded word........true. I don't think this is a "bet", but a decision based on odds, like all decisions.

There's that, but also Poker is so much more structured than most business situations.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's that, but also Poker is so much more structured than most business situations.

 

No kidding. It was an analogy, not a perfect one, clearly.