Article: TD Top Prospects: #3 Jose Berrios

[jmlease1]

I like Berrios a ton. We'll see how his secondary stuff continues to develop; if he continues to improve his change and curve he can be really really good.

 

I agree with Seth; look for him to arrive in 2016 unless things go badly for the rotation AND he's dominating. No need to add him to the 40-man early while they're still working on getting his innings up towards 170 or so and working on his secondary pitches.

 

I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.

[jimmer]

'I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.'

 

In my opinion, while some may think there are 30 #1 pitchers (one for each team) I don't think many people look at it that way.  Some teams have, in quality, more than one #1 pitcher. Some teams don't have any. I'd probably say there's maybe 15-20 in MLB that can truly be called an Ace.   

[Steve Lein]

'I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.'

 

In my opinion, while some may think there are 30 #1 pitchers (one for each team) I don't think many people look at it that way.  Some teams have, in quality, more than one #1 pitcher. Some teams don't have any. I'd probably say there's maybe 15-20 in MLB that can truly be called an Ace.   

 

You can read all kinds of opinions on how #1, #2, #3, #4, and #5 starters are defined (Kiley talks about this on fangraphs)

 

But typically, I think you can say there are maybe 10 true "Aces" per season (this is greater than a #1). If you go by Kiley's scale, this would be guys with a >6.0 WAR. There were 6 such starters last season.

 

There's probably a few more #1's than that, but not by much. If we classify them as >4 WAR, you come up with 9 pitchers in that range last year.

 

Then you can probably double that total number of "aces and #1's" for #2's and #3's, which gives us about 30 names. Again, Kiley's scale classifies these as >2.5 WAR, and this gives 31 pitchers from last season.

 

Then you have a boatload of #4's and #5's.

 

The "league average" pitcher is what I'd typically describe as a #4 pitcher, or as an example from the Twins last year, Kyle Gibson (though he actually qualifies for a #3 in the exercise above, with exactly 2.5 WAR).

[mikelink45]

Move him up quick.  Don't waste him in the minors.  Get the best in the lineup at Target field. 

[jokin]

* Probably, yes.

 

** Absolutely health was #1. Lower pitch limits were set. I would think they would want him to be efficient with those fewer pitches. I'm pretty sure they've always had issues with his control and want him to walk fewer people.

**(a) Honest question, do you have any reports saying his control issues were related to that new 3 finger changeup he introduced last April? The reports early on last year were that he was really liking it. I was hoping it would be the "breakthrough" they were calling it.

 

*** Personal opinion at this point. I think you may weight their ceilings higher than I. But, they are extremely close in my eyes too. I'm pretty excited to see how things work out this year (who isn't?). 

 

I only base the third pitch situation on the few reports and my own personal observations. In the game I saw, he missed most frequently (on a percentage basis) with the change, as it was all over the place.  Perhaps it was a lack of confidence on throwing it for a strike, perhaps he hasn't yet perfected the grip, motion and/or release, but it clearly was still a work in progress.  The good news is that when it was working it was coming to the batter at around 74-77 MPH, a full 20 MPH less than his usual FB.  It will be devastating once he masters it.  The FB did sail or tail on him at times, but he quickly made adjustments in the following inning.  

 

The other thing I noticed was the big pitch count innings came against primarily a RH heavy lineup.  Not that the RH hitters were doing much damage, it was just that, along with some occasional wildness, they were seemingly able to foul off pitch after pitch before Meyer could put them away.  Meyer's career splits indicate he does well overall against RHers- low OPS, lots of weakly hit fly balls and more ground balls, but his K rate is about 25% less than versus LHers.  I don't exactly know the reason from just watching him throw once, but you would think that eventually that slider, with a more effective third pitch will help to lower his pitch count problems versus righties.

[Halsey Hall]

Jose did show up at Hammond today.