Article: First Round Busts?

[daanderson20]

No GIFs, so I don't understand.

[jimmer]

Over the same time period

 

Josmil Pinto - signed 2006

Oswaldo Arcia - signed 2007

Danny Santana - signed 2007

Miguel Sano - signed 2009

Jorge Polanco - signed 2009

Max Kepler - signed 2009

Kennys Vargas - signed 2009

Looks like a good start for a new thread about International Free Agent signings and how we compare to other teams in that regard. Doesn't pertain to the topic of this thread, but it is interesting and I'm sure there are many who would love to read that thread.

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Respectfully, that is not really the case. Parker's analysis includes players that were drafted before the Twins had the chance to pick.  My analysis includes player we could have actually taken.

 

The  Red Sox had a draft position similar to us over this period.  The Red Sox actually had 15 first round picks if we add the supplementals as we did for the Twins, only two players have reached the big leagues (Bard and Kelly), for a total Bref WAR of 3.4. 

 

Right, but as Parker said - the Twins could have taken anyone still on the board after them so whether you pick 5 or 10 after is really irrelevant.  Given the choice the Twins made, relative to their options, they have underwhelmed.

 

You'll note in his initial post that Parker said that the Red Sox were one of the teams we have done better than so far.

[jay]

If we're trying to look for causes of sucking so bad for the last four years (2011-2014), what are the right draft years to look at?  I'm thinking 2003-2009. 

 

Before 2003, those guys have mostly all used up their six-years of arb control by early in our downturn.  After 2009, it's very TBD (but to be transparent, the Twins top picks don't look promising in '10 or '11).

Edited January 29, 2015 by jay

[mikelink45]

I loved the article.  The analysis of the analysis misses the point.  There is a correlation between good drafting and good results in the MLB standings.  The Twins were often afraid of the agents or the potential bonuses if I remember the headlines from those years.  We drafted safe!  

 

There is something to say about looking at the percent from the entire draft, but like football - it is round one that headlines the draft.  We can say that there are a lot of factors that come in to play, but that is why we now use so many tools and the Twins have never been at the forefront of new analysis.

[old nurse]

In Parker's time period the Twins drafted players between picks 14 and 50 in the first round. Of those 11 picks 4 have made it to the major leagues and have produced positive bWAR. Of the 222 players drafted in that time frame in those slots 67 have made it to the majors and have produced positive bWAR. From that standpoint the Twins do not look bad. Over that time period 27 players in that group have produced at least 4 bWAR, the Twins drafted one. Again,for those players drafted. The Twins sucess rate was about average. Unfortunately, they needed to do better than average. They needed to be lucky and get a very good player, 7 over that time period have produced a bWAR greater than 10, and they did not.

[tobi0040]

Jay,

 

I think one could argue going back farther than 2006. High school players can take 5 to 6 years before they arrive and accumulate WAR. Most college players are down at least 2 years.

 

If you add 2004 and 2005 the twins add Perkins, plouffe, and garza. We have from that point six players that have arrived (hicks, Gibson, revere, garza, plouffe, and Perkins). Given the lowest pick we had was I believe hicks at 14, I am guessing that draft record is in the top half, maybe even before an adjustment for draft position.

[old nurse]

Jay,

 

I think one could argue going back farther than 2006. High school players can take 5 to 6 years before they arrive and accumulate WAR. Most college players are down at least 2 years.

 

If you add 2004 and 2005 the twins add Perkins, plouffe, and garza. We have from that point six players that have arrived (hicks, Gibson, revere, garza, plouffe, and Perkins). Given the lowest pick we had was I believe hicks at 14, I am guessing that draft record is in the top half, maybe even before an adjustment for draft position.

Hank Sanchez, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox and Jay Ranville kind of negate a little bit of the luster from those 3 drafts

[Pal]

From 2006-2011 the Twins had a lot of first round bust... it might not be a coincidence that Bill Smith was in charge from 2007-2011.  

Can't be totally his fault, but still, the timelines seem to match.  Though hopefully when you're getting top 5 picks (like after 2011), you're not completely missing.  Also, wasn't Revere a first round pick in 2007?

[diehardtwinsfan]

He had a lot of first round busts, but he did quite well internationally.  Smith was a bad GM, but I will say that his work with the farm system wasn't really his downfall. 

[tobi0040]

Hank Sanchez, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox and Jay Ranville kind of negate a little bit of the luster from those 3 drafts

 

Wait, you have given up on Jay Ranvile? This guy has potential.  I kid.

 

Plouffe, Perkins, and Garza repesent 28.6 WAR according to Bref.  That would definitely be a net positive, even if you include the busts from those two drafts.

 

Just for fun, Delmon had a WAR of 1.1 while here, from 2008 to 2011.  During that stretch, Garza accumulated 11.3. It was actually the best stretch of Garza's career by WAR. Ouch.

[bird]

He had a lot of first round busts, but he did quite well internationally.  Smith was a bad GM, but I will say that his work with the farm system wasn't really his downfall. 

Carl Pohlad deserves almost all of the criticism for the past under-performing scouting and development infrastructure, and Calvin deserves the rest. Andy MacPhail, Jim Pohlad and others were unable to convince him to  increase the budget prior to revenue-sharing. They tried hard. When they finally got his blessing to build up personnel and facilities and increase their focus in Latin America, Smith was put in charge of the academy piece, and I recall him saying it would take a decade before the new scouts had developed strong enough connections, etc. to get them in a position to go head to head for talent against the teams with established beachheads. Back in those days, the talent was even more controlled by agents than nowadays.

 

Things are different now, and there's no excuse for being below average in terms of draft results any more. But still, when we compare results, if we're including selections 10 picks ahead or 10 picks behind the Twin's selection in any given year, we're creating a muddled picture, in my opinion. Also, we're doing the same if we don't give a mulligan to teams when injury dooms a prospect. The Cards lost Tavaras to an auto accident. Does that make them a worse drafter?

Edited January 30, 2015 by birdwatcher

[jay]

Alright, here's the blog with some number-crunching analysis:

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/237/entry-6328-comparing-first-round-draft-pick-performance/

 

To summarize, the total WAR from Twins first round draft picks (2003-2011) after accounting for draft position and total number of picks should have been right at league average.  The results came in a bit below that, but not at the bottom of the league. 

[jimmer]

Over the same time period

 

Josmil Pinto - signed 2006

Oswaldo Arcia - signed 2007

Danny Santana - signed 2007

Miguel Sano - signed 2009

Jorge Polanco - signed 2009

Max Kepler - signed 2009

Kennys Vargas - signed 2009

Since these international signings have been brought up,

 

Here's a story that talks about international FA signings and what rewards the teams have had at the major league level.  Not for the faint of heart.  Guess which team has accumulated the least amount of b-WAR? They decided to use b-WAR, not sure why.

 

Here's a disclaimer: 'This time I will only be tallying which team signed which player as an international free agents — I will not be tallying other MLB teams that each player eventually played for during their careers stateside. Players who were born in these countries but who were eventually drafted in the rookie draft are excluded from the count'.  This is because this article is about international scouting.

 

Another point, about the WAR tally in the article, 'The WAR tallies in the table below use Baseball Reference’s WAR and only include value that the player accumulated when with the team that originally signed him. (I.e., the Mariners do not reap the bounty of Choo’s production because they traded him just a few dozen games into his big league career.)'

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-mlb-teams-are-blazing-new-trails-in-scouting/

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer