5 and 5 Top Upside Prospects

[ExpectMorePayLess]

How would Brad Steil answer the below question?  Most Twins top 10 prospect list are similar.  Therefore:

Which remaining prospects have the most upside if they actually reached their potential? and why?

 

Hitters:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Pitchers:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

I'm curious what other prospect rankers think as well?

[Seth Stohs]

I guess I'd have to know who at the top would be excluded? Just Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Berrios, Polanco, May, Gordon? How far down do we go to start putting these names?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moving to minor league forum

[gunnarthor]

How would Brad Steil answer the below question?  Most Twins top 10 prospect list are similar.  Therefore:

Which remaining prospects have the most upside if they actually reached their potential? and why?

 

Hitters:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

Pitchers:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 

I'm curious what other prospect rankers think as well?

For hitters, Jason Parks who used to be at BP but was hired by the Cubs did say that Adam Walker could be a first division type player IF he got his plate discipline under control.  Now, obviously, that is the biggest IF there is, but his ceiling would be pretty elite IF he could control the strike zone.  You'd be looking at a plus defender in RF with Arcia pop and a avg or better base runner. 

 

Harrison's ceiling is probably a solid LFer, maybe Kepler too.  Armyus Minier (I misspelled that), who is miles away, has an all star ceiling.  Nico Goodrum's ceiling is probably a good short stop.

 

For pitchers outside the top 10 (excluding Thrope who is sometimes in the top 10 and sometimes not), I'm not sure.  Maybe a few of the relief pitchers turned starters have the best ceiling if they can become starters. 

[ExpectMorePayLess]

I agree with most of your Hitters

*Harrison has power potential

*Kepler has power potential too but has to show me a full seasons worth of work

*Walker is probably as good as Sano if he learns to control zone (Big If / agreed).  I think he is defnitely a better athlete and hits as far in games.

*Goodrum is my dark horse - switch hitter with consistent numbers from each side.  Once he figures it out.

*Navaratto is another high risk player who is young enough with great tools offensively and defensively

 

Pitchers

*Brett  Lee just wins

*Tim Shibuya is possibly the best pitcher in the system.  Crafty winner

*Zach Jones is so underrated.  Will pitch the 7th, 8th, or 9th for years to come

*Tyler Jones throws in the high 90's and understands "Saves" - Consistency = Dangerous

*Chih-Wei Hu power and pitchability

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Seth - yours would be whoever you have listed after 10 on your list. Naturally. I want to know from all those other want to be prospect list makers out there. I say that in a good way too.

[bird]

Here are some of the names I've seen high, like top ten, on the lists of rankers that are not consensus names (yet):

 

Pitchers: Tonkin, Melotakis, Rogers, Burdi, Goncalves, Jorge

 

Hitters: Kepler, Walker, Minier, Diaz

[lightfoot789]

Walker (crazy upside); Dalton Hicks (underrated defender and run producer); Turner (more power than advertised); Michael (excellent defender and contact hitter); Goodrum (speed kills)

 

Bard; Chargois; Rogers; Reed; Z. Jones; staying healthy is the key for each.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll leave the top prospects off as I think we all agree that most of our top 10 has pretty good upside too.

 

Hitters:

1.  Walker tops the list.  If he figures out the contact stuff, he's going to be a beast.

2.  Kepler.  No one doubts the tools here.  He's just got to figure it out.

3.  Minier

4.  Michael

5.  Garver (accounting for positional scarcity on this, but I'm pretty high on him).

 

Pitchers

 

1.  Thorpe (could technically be top 10, he wasn't in mine).

2.  Gonsalves

3.  Burdi

4.  Hu

5.  Reed, Z. Jones, and T Jones (I have to admit, the pen over the next decade could be downright sick with shut down guys for the 6-9th).

[ashbury]

Working from Seth's, Cody's and Jeremy's top 10 lists in the TD Prospect Handbook (i.e., a top 12 or 13 collectively), I'd list my upside picks from outside this group as:

1. Max Kepler
2. Travis Harrison
3. Max Murphy
4. Zack Larson
5. Adam Walker

and

1. Stephen Gonsalves
2. Chih-Wei Hu
3. Jason Wheeler
4. Taylor Rogers
5. Jake Reed

I omit guys with too short a professional track record to gauge.  Upside doesn't mean likelihood, of course.

[2wins87]

Talking purely upside  and excluding the consensus top 10ish prospects I'd probably go:

 

Hitters:

1. Amaurys Minier - I love a switch hitting power guy, he showed the power was legit from both sides of the plate this year, obviously the question will be about contact

2. Adam Walker - Massive power, great speed, another big question mark around his contact ability)

3. Max Kepler - Not as much power potential as the other guys on the list, but still good overall athleticism. If you are still dreaming on his potential I think he's got a Matt Kemp like body/toolset, maybe not quite as much athleticism

4. Travis Harrison - Figures to have excellent power, but unlike the other power guys on the list he's shown better zone-judgment and contact ability but his power is still mostly projection

5. Lewin Diaz - Huge guy, massive power, won't be worth much defensively which lowers his overall upside

 

Pitchers:

1. Michael Cederoth - The guy can hit 100 and appears to be getting a tryout as a starter, I don't know how no one has mentioned him yet

2. Fernando Romero - If he manages to come back healthy, he's got a mid to upper 90s fastball and potentially plus slider

3. Stephen Gonsalves - He's only got low 90s velocity right now but projects to add a bit more.  His secondary stuff shows flashes though

4. Chih Wei Hu - Similar to Gonsalves velocity and development wise, also has a palmball which is apparently a bit different from a normal changeup. He could potentially throw hitters a lot of different looking pitches like some of the other East Asian pitchers to break into the majors recently

5. Tyler Duffy - He threw harder as a reliever, but can still touch the mid 90s as a starter, his secondary stuff seems to be developing decently

 

While the Twins have a slew of relievers with great stuff, I don't put them on this list if they don't figure to start (i.e. they are already pitching in relief roles in the minors).  Relievers simply don't figure to have as much overall value as starters.

[2wins87]

I also think someone ought to mention Huascar Ynoa, who might actually have more upside than the last three guys on my list.  He's very young so it's mostly about projection at this point but he's apparently already flashed three above average offerings. 

[Steve Lein]

Well, if I consider my top 10 to be: Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Berrios, Gordon, May, Burdi, Thorpe, and Polanco, I end up with:

 

Hitters:

1. Rosario

2. Kepler

3. Harrison

4. Walker

5. Minier

 

Pitchers:

1. Gonsalves

2. Hu

3. Chargois

4. Z. Jones

5. Reed

 

And there's several other names I'd consider for these as well: Turner, Murphy, Cederoth, Duffey, Melotakis, Peterson...

[gunnarthor]

Well, if I consider my top 10 to be: Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Berrios, Gordon, May, Burdi, Thorpe, and Polanco, I end up with:

 

Hitters:

1. Rosario

2. Kepler

3. Harrison

4. Walker

5. Minier

 

Pitchers:

1. Gonsalves

2. Hu

3. Chargois

4. Z. Jones

5. Reed

 

And there's several other names I'd consider for these as well: Turner, Murphy, Cederoth, Duffey, Melotakis, Peterson...

But I think the original question was upside over positional ranking.  a guy like Walker (I think) has a much higher potential ceiling than Kepler and if Cederoth could start ....

 

Maybe that's what you were doing but I read it as a continuation of your top 10.

[Steve Lein]

Nope, that's upside beyond the top 10. I don't believe in a lot of the college RP's being able to start, and I'm much more bullish on Kepler than most. Upside to me includes both ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Walker is low on that line of thinking for me right now.

[Shane Wahl]

I will cheat and go with 10 each. If I go with just 6-10 hitters:

 

Kepler, Walker, Minier, Harrison, Michael. 

 

If I consider guys much lower, but who could have breakout seasons: 

 

Jorge Fernandez, Alex Swim, Rainis Silva (the catching trio), Zach Granite, and Trey Vavra.

 

My 6-10 pitchers:

 

May, Thorpe, Reed, Rogers, Duffey.

 

The breakout potential pitchers:

 

Mat Batts, Aaron Slegers, Brandon Poulson (who knows?), J.T. Chargois, and Todd Van Steensel.