Article: Projecting 2015 Value for Youngsters

[Cody Christie]

Near the end of last season, the Twins featured a trio of players on the team's magazine cover and dubbed them "The First Wave." Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, and Oswaldo Arcia all made big impacts at the big league level. Even though Arcia played in almost 100 games in 2013, he's actually the youngest of the three who were all in their age 23 season last year.Each of these three players will have a role in the Twins getting back to playing winning baseball. This makes it interesting to consider which player could end up providing the most value in 2015.

 

According to Baseball Reference, these three combined for a 5.1 WAR last season. Santana ranked third on the position player side with 3.9 WAR, behind Brian Dozier (5.2 WAR) and Trevor Plouffe (4.0). Vargas (0.7 WAR) finished slightly ahead of Arcia (0.5 WAR).

 

According to FanGraphs, this trio combined for a 4.5 WAR last season. Santana's 3.2 WAR again ranked third on the team behind Dozier and Plouffe. Arcia ranked slightly higher with a 0.9 WAR and Vargas was a little lower with a 0.4 WAR.

 

There will be some changes for the 2015 campaign. Santana is expected to start the season as the team's everyday shortstop. Many also expect his offensive numbers to decline to align closer to his minor league track record. In the minors he was a career .273/.317/.391 hitter. Those numbers exploded at the big league level and he ended the year batting .319/.353/.472.

 

Arcia dealt with some back issues over the final two months of the regular season and now he is suffering from back problems in the Venezuelan Winter League. He is always going to be a liability on the defensive side of the ball so his value comes from his offensive skills. However fans have to be concerned with his ability to stay healthy.

 

Like Arcia, Vargas isn't expected to provide a lot of value with his defense. He will occasionally fill in at first base but the majority of his at-bats are projected to be as designated hitter. Other players like Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, and Josmil Pinto will also need some time at DH so this could mean fewer chances for Vargas.

 

On FanGraphs site, they have already posted the 2015 Steamer projections for each player:

Arcia (130 Games): .258/.320/.469, 24 HR, 16 2B, 3 3B, 65 R (1.9 WAR)

Santana (113 Games): .261/.299/.371, 7 HR, 23 2B, 5 3B, 59 R, 18 SB (1.6 WAR)

Vargas (122 Games): .250/.311/.427, 20 HR, 22 2B, 1 3B, 60 R (0.9 WAR)

 

There are a few things I question about the above totals. I don't think Arcia will play in 130 games because he has never done that in his professional career. It also seems as though his back is going to be a continual problem. Santana's games played seems a little low. He's played over 120 games in each of the last three seasons. For Vargas, the numbers seem close to right but I wouldn't be surprised if he played in fewer than 122 games.

 

By season's end, I believe Santana will end up with the higher WAR. His offensive numbers might dip but he will be playing a premium defensive position and this will add to his overall value. There are questions about Arcia's ability to stay healthy and Vargas doesn't provide any defensive value.

 

Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Which player do you think will provide more value to the Twins in 2015?

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[Seth Stohs]

 

There are a few things I question about the above totals. I don't think Arcia will play in 130 games because he has never done that in his professional career. It also seems as though his back is going to be a continual problem.

 

He played 135 games in 2013... I will be disappointed if he doesn't play in about 140-150 games this year. It'll mean, as you mention, that his back flares up and it costs him. 

 

I'd agree too that I think Santana should play a lot more than 113 games... Of course, they do need to get Escobar playing time. 

[Willihammer]

I would have said Arcia but the fact that his back has been bothering him for the better part of a year is pretty worrying. I am stoked about all 3, but I think Pinto may be the best hitter next year while Vargas and Santana could take some lumps.

[Jstevens15]

Good article first of all! I'd agree with FanGraphs projection with Arcia Leading the trio but I expect a better war than that even. I could see a 2.5 war with his numbers improving. I see him hitting in the .270s this year and between 25-30 home runs. Santana's war will be hurt when he plays SS I believe. I'm just hoping he can be CLOSE to the level he played last year, I'd be happy with a .740 OPS with more SBs though. I agree with the guy above^^ saying Pinto could have a good year. Better than Vargas, perhaps. We'll see how it plays out. Pinto/Vargas May be a good trade chip along with Plouffe/Dozier. Pinto being 26 might be behind Stuart turner on the depth chart at this time next year. I doubt that but a college catcher in AA already, he could make the jump by September.

[TwinsMasochist]

Waldo's health is becoming concerning.  He will definitely see some time on the DL this year.  He may have to eventually entertain the idea of not swinging for the fences at every pitch that's even remotely hittable (and some that aren't).  No need to force himself to play in the winter league dinged up.  Rest, relax and be 100% for ST.  If he were smart, he'd use this free time to study video and become familiarized with strategies opposing pitchers are using to get him out.

[Thrylos]

I'd vote Sano, if I had that choice.  I'd rank those 3: Arcia, Vargas and Santana with Meyer and May providing more value than Santana.  Wrench: For DHs, like Vargas, WAR-based metrics really don't do them any favors...

[Seth Stohs]

I'd vote Sano, if I had that choice.  I'd rank those 3: Arcia, Vargas and Santana with Meyer and May providing more value than Santana.  Wrench: For DHs, like Vargas, WAR-based metrics really don't do them any favors...

 

True. Vargas will get 0 Defensive WAR whereas we assume Arcia's Defensive WAR will be negative in LF... so 0 is better than negative. That's why if I had a guess, I'd say that Santana will have the highest WAR because I think his Offensive numbers will come down quite a bit, his defense as a SS should help some.

[jwestbrock]

True. Vargas will get 0 Defensive WAR whereas we assume Arcia's Defensive WAR will be negative in LF... so 0 is better than negative. That's why if I had a guess, I'd say that Santana will have the highest WAR because I think his Offensive numbers will come down quite a bit, his defense as a SS should help some.

There is a positional adjustment though, for Fangraphs at least.

Left field is -7.5 runs on top of their defensive WAR and DH is -17.5 runs.

Arcia would need to be a -10 on defense in LF to be worth less defensively than Vargas at DH.

The rest of the chart is here:

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/299646/posadjust.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

[Mike Sixel]

Note that CF and SS have the same adjustment.....so for WAR purposes, Santana is not playing a more premium position. 

 

If I had to bet......I'd go with Arcia (I'm just going to assume he's healthy).

[jokin]

Note that CF and SS have the same adjustment.....so for WAR purposes, Santana is not playing a more premium position. 

 

If I had to bet......I'd go with Arcia (I'm just going to assume he's healthy).

 

Huh?  +7.5 and +2.5 are the same adjustment? Beg to differ on the CF/SS comp.

 

 

Catcher  +12.5

Shortstop  +7.5

Center Fld +2.5

Edited January 8, 2015 by jokin

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have higher hopes for Danny Santana.

 

He had 430 PA last year. That is a lot of time for opposing pitchers to find any glaring flaws. At that he still hit .358 in September.

 

I expect him to regress, but I also expect him to be pretty solid.

[Mike Sixel]

Huh?  +7.5 and +2.5 are the same adjustment? Beg to differ on the CF/SS comp.

 

That's what I get for glancing fast at work. Sorry, just ignore that post (assuming you have not already ignored all my posts, which I guess jokin has not......).

[ashbury]

That's what I get for glancing fast at work. Sorry, just ignore that post (assuming you have not already ignored all my posts, which I guess jokin has not......).

tl;dnr