Astros & later pick Nix settle -- part of Aiken mess

[JB_Iowa]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  · 16m16 minutes ago 
astros & draftee nix, whose $1.5M deal was canceled thru no fault of his own, reach settlement. http://cbsprt.co/1qTf8Qn

 

 

The financial settlement between the Astros and Nix -- the amount of which isn't known -- was agreed to after the players union, on behalf of Nix and agent Casey Close, filed a grievance citing the unfairness of Nix losing his deal over something that allegedly came up in Aiken's physical. The monetary payout helps the Astros avoid having to forfeit the picks, which was a possibility had an arbitrator ruled against them and ordered them to sign Nix. It isn't known whether Nix preferred to pitch for them, anyway, by this point.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24892163/astros-and-nix-a-top-draftee-whose-deal-was-canceled-reach-settlement

[Mike Sixel]

Good for Nix. He gets some real money, and goes back into the draft. Clearly the Astros felt they'd lose any suit or arbitration.

 

The Astros really brought this on themselves, but also got caught in a tough spot not totally under their control (assuming you assume positive intent on not signing Aiken).

[gunnarthor]

(assuming you assume positive intent on not signing Aiken).

I really don't though.  It's a heck of a coincidence that the value of that injury just happened to be the over slot signing bonus of a different player (in this case, Mac Marshall).  Previous UCL concerns (RA Dickey for example) had lowered bonus money a few hundred thousand, not millions.

 

I think the Astros went into the draft thinking they could sign Aiken cheaper than what they had agreed on and get those two extra players.  And since all three were represented by the same agent, the agent would go along with it.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I really don't though.  It's a heck of a coincidence that the value of that injury just happened to be the over slot signing bonus of a different player (in this case, Mac Marshall).  Previous UCL concerns (RA Dickey for example) had lowered bonus money a few hundred thousand, not millions.

 

I think the Astros went into the draft thinking they could sign Aiken cheaper than what they had agreed on and get those two extra players.  And since all three were represented by the same agent, the agent would go along with it.  

Was Marshall's proposed bonus ever reported?  I don't think they ever had anything close to a deal with him.

 

I think their plan was to sign Aiken slightly below slot and then just one of Nix or Marshall.  The Astros initially agreed with Aiken on a bonus $1.5 mil under slot, which almost exactly covered Nix's agreed-upon over-slot bonus, and Marshall was presumed going to college yet at that point.

 

After the physical, though, they realized they might be better off just trying again with the #2 pick next year rather than sign Aiken at any price -- hence why they immediately reduced their offer to Aiken to the minimum required 40% to get the pick next year.  I guess if Aiken had accepted, they could have made a late run at Marshall too, but it doesn't look like that was the original plan.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

After the physical, though, they realized they might be better off just trying again with the #2 pick next year rather than sign Aiken at any price -- hence why they immediately reduced their offer to Aiken to the minimum required 40% to get the pick next year.  I guess if Aiken had accepted, they could have made a late run at Marshall too, but it doesn't look like that was the original plan.

We will never know but I doubt that.  Aiken is still going to be a top 5 pick this year, the Astros lost a year of development time (after losing 111 games) and they increased their offer to Aiken to 5m but he wouldn't agreee, so I do think they were trying to get him in the system.

 

The Marshall rumors were that he would sign for 1.5m but he wasn't offered that like Nix was.  I really think the Astros were trying to outsmart everyone and get an extra player out of the #1 pcik bonus pool

[Otto von Ballpark]

We will never know but I doubt that.  Aiken is still going to be a top 5 pick this year, the Astros lost a year of development time (after losing 111 games) and they increased their offer to Aiken to 5m but he wouldn't agreee, so I do think they were trying to get him in the system.

 

The Marshall rumors were that he would sign for 1.5m but he wasn't offered that like Nix was.  I really think the Astros were trying to outsmart everyone and get an extra player out of the #1 pcik bonus pool

You think their plan all along was to dramatically lower their offer after Aiken's physical?

 

And if all they needed for Marshall was $1.5 mil, they could have offered Aiken $5 mil right away, or right after the physical.  They didn't.  They agreed to $6.5 mil (meaning Aiken plus either Nix or Marshall) and then offered $3.1 mil (meaning no Nix, Marshall, or Aiken, and roll the dice with the #2 pick next year) at those two junctures.  Your scenario of signing all three wasn't really on the table until the last minute, and only after they had massively offended Aiken (and allegedly hadn't negotiated much with Marshall).

 

If they were trying to outsmart everyone, they were probably did so after the physical, partly a reaction to Aiken's health projection and partly in anticipation of the 2016 draft, where they will now have the #2 and #5 slots to play with (and more information about Aiken).  Their multiple last-minute offers to Aiken suggest they may have somewhat regretted that gambit quite quickly, or perhaps made a last-minute effort to snag them all.

[gunnarthor]

You think their plan all along was to dramatically lower their offer after Aiken's physical?

 

And if all they needed for Marshall was $1.5 mil, they could have offered Aiken $5 mil right away, or right after the physical.  They didn't.  They agreed to $6.5 mil (meaning Aiken plus either Nix or Marshall) and then offered $3.1 mil (meaning no Nix, Marshall, or Aiken, and roll the dice with the #2 pick next year) at those two junctures.  Your scenario of signing all three wasn't really on the table until the last minute, and only after they had massively offended Aiken (and allegedly hadn't negotiated much with Marshall).

 

If they were trying to outsmart everyone, they were probably did so after the physical, partly a reaction to Aiken's health projection and partly in anticipation of the 2016 draft, where they will now have the #2 and #5 slots to play with (and more information about Aiken).  Their multiple last-minute offers to Aiken suggest they may have somewhat regretted that gambit quite quickly, or perhaps made a last-minute effort to snag them all.

I do think they intended to lower the agreed pre-draft amount with Aiken when they saw how the draft developed.  mlbtraderumors quoted an agent saying that there is always something in a physical that a team could use to ding a player but teams just didn't do it.  And the abnormality in his arm (whatever it really was) clearly didn't impact his ability to pitch.

 

I think the Astros offer of 3.1 was meant to scare Aiken into accepting something north of that while getting Nix and Marshall as well (and a lot of the reporting on mlbtraderumors and Houston blogs supported that).  I don't think the Astros ever really wanted to lose the #1 pick (plus a fifth rounder) and a year of development time just to draft #2 next year.

[beckmt]

Do not know how much of this was a plan, it now has a big downside.

1.  Agents will be less likely to play ball with Houston and want close to slot value for their clients.

2.  Players will instruct their representatives to tell Houston they do not want to sign with them. (Friends of friends can have a significant impact). This may not affect Houston, but could have an impact on who they are able to draft.  Aiken could refuse to sign with Houston or allow Houston to draft him, so in effect the Twins could have the equivalent of the #4 pick for Aiken, if he falls that far.  This could also force Houston to use one of their top 5 picks on a college player who would have less leverage.

3. Given a choice of signing with a team the player does not like or going to college or returning for another year, Houston may have to overpay for some of their top 10 draft picks to convince them to sign.

 

Where does this put the Twins.  Twins will be in great shape in the first round to get a better player than if Houston had not lost this gamble.  Either Aiken or a top high school pick could slide to the Twins at 6, which would not happen if Houston had not gambled and lost.

[gunnarthor]

I think the really interesting thing in this is how burnt is that bridge with Close?  Apparently he and Boras are representing something like 14 of the top 20 expected picks (or some insane number like that).  Obviously, Houston might have to take a Close client again.  I wonder if one of their two picks ends up a "lesser" player so they have more cap room or if they decide to take the two BPA and, if that means dealing with Close, so be it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do think they intended to lower the agreed pre-draft amount with Aiken when they saw how the draft developed. mlbtraderumors quoted an agent saying that there is always something in a physical that a team could use to ding a player but teams just didn't do it. And the abnormality in his arm (whatever it really was) clearly didn't impact his ability to pitch.

 

I think the Astros offer of 3.1 was meant to scare Aiken into accepting something north of that while getting Nix and Marshall as well (and a lot of the reporting on mlbtraderumors and Houston blogs supported that). I don't think the Astros ever really wanted to lose the #1 pick (plus a fifth rounder) and a year of development time just to draft #2 next year.

I think you are under-estimating the value of having the #2 and #5 picks in the same year, in terms of creative slot games. Especially if they weren't enamored with Aiken, for health or other reasons.

 

No doubt the Astros bungled a bit -- I am just giving them a little benefit of the doubt that they wouldn't make up their concern about Aiken out of whole cloth and grossly alienate so many people in the process (or at least they did so knowing they liked their fallback plan of getting two top picks next year).