MLB Trade Rumors - Tomas

[James]

Moncada  for sure is. Tomas is not because of his age?

It's not solely on age.  International players that have a certain amount of service time in a professional league are not subject to the international signing bonus.  The exception is for Japan and South Korea which have their own posting system rules.  

 

I don't know what to think about Tomas overall.  The reports I have read say that he should be a decent player, but I don't know if he's going to be $100M good.  I don't know how anyone can figure that out with the limited scouting sampling.  He could be great, but I have a feeling that someone is going to overpay for him.  I could see the Twins making a splash like that, but I don't think it's highly likely.  

[twinsfanstreif]

I think the 100 million number is blown way out of proportion, it was a media speculation based on nothing. Abreu got 6 years $68 million and many believe he was a far superior prospect. Most realistic reports based on scouting reports suggest 10-12 million a year and a 6 or 7 year deal that's more like 60-80 million not 100

[tobi0040]

I think the 100 million number is blown way out of proportion, it was a media speculation based on nothing. Abreu got 6 years $68 million and many believe he was a far superior prospect. Most realistic reports based on scouting reports suggest 10-12 million a year and a 6 or 7 year deal that's more like 60-80 million not 100

 

It is true that he is not the prospect Abreu was....but in hindsight Abreu should have went for well over $100M. 

 

Everyone is chasing the dream now.  I bet he gets $90-100M.  Hope not by us. 

[twinsfanstreif]

Would people be ok with Tomas if we could get him for 6 years $60 million?

[tobi0040]

Would people be ok with Tomas if we could get him for 6 years $60 million?

 

Personally, I would be excited that we participcated in a bidding war and won and excited that it was not a crazy price.

 

But again we scored the 5th number of runs last year.  Our rotation has been bottom three for 3-4 years now. Our OF defense is awful.  We have a ton of OF prospects 0-2 years away. 

 

Give Ervin Santana 4-60 and I would be more excited.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be pretty thrilled if we were able to swing a deal for Kemp. For the past few months I have seen Kemp being mentioned as an acquirable piece. I have read that kind of stuff on a handful sites, but is it really in the best interest of the Dodgers to trade him?

 

He had a good offensive year last year, but it is apparent he needs to be a corner outfielder moving forward. I look at the Dodger's roster and it appears that they need his offense. Ethier is pretty much done with, Crawford is an injury risk and not the player he once was, and Joc Pederson, although a handsome prospect, has not proven anything at the mlb level. His numbers in the PCL look awesome, but that is the PCL  - a very outrageous offense up the keishter league. But the evaluators I am sure value him on his skill set and makeup and not the numbers he has put up in Albuquerque.

 

I understand that Kemp is easily the most movable player out of himself, Ethier or Crawford. But, dang, don't you think that would be a huge risk for the Dodgers to lose his offensive production?

The Dodgers have 3 OFs under long term contracts and 2 studs on cheap deals right now, and some potential studs in the pipeline. They have too many outfielders. Kemp is practically untradeable given his contract, so he can be had for next to nothing in terms of prospects. He's an above average player, but very overpaid, and he's a CF. I think in LF, he's an above average defender, or at the worst, average. Etheir is also under contract, but he's not good anymore (though he is cheaper). I don't think the Dodgers will be able to trade him, and I'd be disappointed if the Twins targeted him. I wouldn't mind getting Pederson, but the big difference here is that he WILL cost the Twins quite a bit in terms of prospects, where a guy like Kemp can bridge the gap and not cost the farm a thing (just the Pohlads).

 

For those reasons, I think that if the Twins can afford it, I'd get Kemp. Not saying I wouldn't be OK with Tomas. My concern with Tomas though is that he's going to cost close to the same (though he'll come with a couple more years) and his defense is questionable. Like others said, he's a prospect. Not a bad get, and he could be an anchor for quite some time, but there's more risk here for what will likely be the same price.

[Mike Sixel]

You can afford both a SP and Tomas, if they just use profits saved from previous years as the signing bonus money......or if they get Tomas for $10MM per year......still no idea if he's any good or not.

[tobi0040]

The Dodgers have 3 OFs under long term contracts and 2 studs on cheap deals right now, and some potential studs in the pipeline. They have too many outfielders. Kemp is practically untradeable given his contract, so he can be had for next to nothing in terms of prospects. He's an above average player, but very overpaid, and he's a CF. I think in LF, he's an above average defender, or at the worst, average. Etheir is also under contract, but he's not good anymore (though he is cheaper). I don't think the Dodgers will be able to trade him, and I'd be disappointed if the Twins targeted him. I wouldn't mind getting Pederson, but the big difference here is that he WILL cost the Twins quite a bit in terms of prospects, where a guy like Kemp can bridge the gap and not cost the farm a thing (just the Pohlads).

 

For those reasons, I think that if the Twins can afford it, I'd get Kemp. Not saying I wouldn't be OK with Tomas. My concern with Tomas though is that he's going to cost close to the same (though he'll come with a couple more years) and his defense is questionable. Like others said, he's a prospect. Not a bad get, and he could be an anchor for quite some time, but there's more risk here for what will likely be the same price.

 

Kemp has 5-100 left. I would inherit that deal all day before giving Tomas 6-100.

[Mike Sixel]

You do recall Kemp is a bit of a moper, right? He's also an LA guy through and through, will people be ok when he pulls a Nolasco/Darrin Nelson and says he wishes he was still in LA?

[Sam Morley]

Here is fangraph's Kiley McDaniel's scouting report on Tomas:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-yasmany-tomas/

 

He projects an Upside of 275/350/480 25-30 HR, fringy d and baserunning in LF. At age 24, I'd take that over Kemp at a comparable price. 

 

If you scroll down to the comments on the scouting report, McDaniel responds to a question about Tomas' bat speed, which is worth reading. 

 

It seems like with these Cuban guys, there are all these mysterious unpredictable factors making them hard to evaluate (like guys getting into better shape and improving their run tool after defecting). And it seems like scouts are being conservative in their evaluations. It's hard to evaluate Tomas independent of the success of his countrymen. It seems to me like he could be even better than his projected upside.

[tobi0040]

Here is fangraph's Kiley McDaniel's scouting report on Tomas:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-yasmany-tomas/

 

He projects an Upside of 275/350/480 25-30 HR, fringy d and baserunning in LF. At age 24, I'd take that over Kemp at a comparable price. 

 

If you scroll down to the comments on the scouting report, McDaniel responds to a question about Tomas' bat speed, which is worth reading. 

 

It seems like with these Cuban guys, there are all these mysterious unpredictable factors making them hard to evaluate (like guys getting into better shape and improving their run tool after defecting). And it seems like scouts are being conservative in their evaluations. It's hard to evaluate Tomas independent of the success of his countrymen. It seems to me like he could be even better than his projected upside.

 

An OPS of .830 in the major leagues for Tomas does not seem conservative.  He posted an OPS of .849 in Cuba.

 

 

Here are the numbers Abreu put up in Cuba:

 

2009 - 1.377 OPS

2010 - 1.583 OPS

2011 - 1.379 OPS

2012 - 1.270 OPS

 

Not to mention Cespedes had way better numbers at the same age in the same league and he has been a sub .740 OPS guy the last two years.

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/free-agent-profile-yasmany-tomas.html

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Jos%C3%A9_Abreu

[Sam Morley]

An OPS of .830 in the major leagues for Tomas does not seem conservative.  He posted an OPS of .849 in Cuba.

 

 

Here are the numbers Abreu put up in Cuba:

 

2009 - 1.377 OPS

2010 - 1.583 OPS

2011 - 1.379 OPS

2012 - 1.270 OPS

 

Not to mention Cespedes had way better numbers at the same age in the same league and he has been a sub .740 OPS guy the last two years.

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/free-agent-profile-yasmany-tomas.html

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Jos%C3%A9_Abreu

That's fair. I don't think the OPS is necessarily conservative, particularly the 480 SLG, but 25-30 HR might be. And I think the projection is based less on stats and more on tool grades. It sounds like based on his reported short bat path and quick hands, his hit tool could be undervalued. It depends on his plate discipline, which he is certainly young enough to improve. I hadn't really looked at the Cuban league stat comps; they are compelling. I'm glad you pointed them out.

[tobi0040]

That's fair. I don't think the OPS is necessarily conservative, particularly the 480 SLG, but 25-30 HR might be. And I think the projection is based less on stats and more on tool grades. It sounds like based on his reported short bat path and quick hands, his hit tool could be undervalued. It depends on his plate discipline, which he is certainly young enough to improve. I hadn't really looked at the Cuban league stat comps; they are compelling. I'm glad you pointed them out.

 

With so little tape on the guy, stats with the others at the same age in the same league is the best out there.

 

He doesn't appear to be like the others.  This reeks of agent hype and teams trying to get into the market right before the bubble popped to me.  I hope the Twins fake an interest or stay out of it, not that the market will think we are going to offer $100M.

[nicksaviking]

He's been scouted a ton in the last couple of months with various showcases.  He may be unknown to most of us as surely the scouts are keeping tight lips about their thoughts on him, but I don't think agent hype alone is going to get him $100 million. 

 

Odrisamier Despaigne, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Alexander Guerrero and Erisbal Arrueberrena are all recent Cuban imports who were originally tabbed for much larger paydays by fans and the media before their showcases caused teams to lose some interest.  I think teams at least have a passable assesment on these guys at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

Klaw said in his chat today that scouts say he is not an 80 million dollar player.

[tobi0040]

Klaw said in his chat today that scouts say he is not an 80 million dollar player.

 

I think he has said before that he will get a large contract though...right? Much more than 6-60 that Abreu received.

 

He is saying he won't live up to the contract.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Latest on Tomas on MLB trade Rumors made no mention of Twins' involvement - Tomas is visiting with the Braves, The Phillies are still in it, but no mention of Minnesota.

 

I don't know what the Twins will do to address their outfield issues, I only hope it's a better effort than 2013 and 2014. 

[twinsfanstreif]

Latest on Tomas on MLB trade Rumors made no mention of Twins' involvement - Tomas is visiting with the Braves, The Phillies are still in it, but no mention of Minnesota.

 

I don't know what the Twins will do to address their outfield issues, I only hope it's a better effort than 2013 and 2014. 

 

I thought the recent update said that the Phillies were cold on Tomas because of the D, they see him as more of a DH guy. Hey the A's just gave Billy Butler $10 million a year, Tomas has to be better than that right?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I thought the recent update said that the Phillies were cold on Tomas because of the D, they see him as more of a DH guy. Hey the A's just gave Billy Butler $10 million a year, Tomas has to be better than that right?

It does mention that they are not excited about his defense, but it also says that they are still the favorite to sign him, with the Giants and Braves being the other teams mentioned in the blurb.

 

here's a link to it:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/yasmany-tomas-rumors-braves-in-phillies-wary-of-overpay.html

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Another day, another story, and another omission of the Twins in any relation to signing Tomas - I think they might be officially out of the running at this point:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/yasmany-tomas--power-has-baseball-in-a-frenzy-011113930.html

[SwainZag]

While the OF as a whole seems to be lacking, other than his bat his scouting reports don't seem to bring too much to the table.  It seems people want the Twins to sign Tomas as a proof they are willing to spend money than what they would get on the field for him.  

 

If you are going to drop 12-15 per year on a player, go find a pitcher and a cheap defensive first OF, IMO.

[tobi0040]

 If you are going to drop 12-15 per year on a player, go find a pitcher and a cheap defensive first OF, IMO.

 

I agree.  For one, the guy has questionable defense from several of the scouts.  So he would be part of the problem here.

 

Two, we can find some guy that plays adequate defense and platoon for a few million. Or get a guy like Mookie Betts from Boston.

[Steve Lein]

Tomas is the absolute only position player on the market this year I would want the Twins to go after and sign to anything more than a 1-2 year deal.  I would give him the money it takes, very similar to what the White Sox gave Abreu.

 

But, this would be the biggest surprise ever when it comes to the Twins, and there are other moves I would do first.

 

Such as trading for an LA Dodger OF, or a Red Sox OF.

[tobi0040]

Tomas is the absolute only position player on the market this year I would want the Twins to go after and sign to anything more than a 1-2 year deal.  I would give him the money it takes, very similar to what the White Sox gave Abreu.

 

But, this would be the biggest surprise ever when it comes to the Twins, and there are other moves I would do first.

 

Such as trading for an LA Dodger OF, or a Red Sox OF.

 

The issue is he is likely to get $20M+ more than Abreu received, but his numbers are nowhere near Abreu's in the same league.

[Steve Lein]

The issue is he is likely to get $20M+ more than Abreu received, but his numbers are nowhere near Abreu's in the same league.

 

I don't think it's going to be that much more.  There's enough chatter around about how he shouldn't be worth Abreu money.  I think that means he ends up with very similar to Abreu money.

[tobi0040]

I don't think it's going to be that much more.  There's enough chatter around about how he shouldn't be worth Abreu money.  I think that means he ends up with very similar to Abreu money.

 

Abreu looks like a screaming deal though.  That is why I think he gets 6-90 or 6-80.  Time will tell. 

[Steve Lein]

The quotes are literally "he's not a $60MIL dollar player" and "he's not Abreu."  Even if it's a screaming deal that Abreu got, I don't see that turning into $20-30MIL more for Tomas.

 

And I also could be very wrong.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Diamondbacks got him!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/26/yasmany-tomas-signs-a-six-year-deal-with-the-diamondbacks/

[twinsfanstreif]

Diamondbacks got him!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/26/yasmany-tomas-signs-a-six-year-deal-with-the-diamondbacks/

And at 6 years $68 million I think it could end up being a pretty good deal. I could be wrong but I think he's gonna be decent for that price. I knew the $100 million rumors were bull

[jokin]

Diamondbacks got him!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/26/yasmany-tomas-signs-a-six-year-deal-with-the-diamondbacks/

 

Overall, I'm less confident on him than I was on Abreu at this time last year.  Abreu had the better numbers in the Cuban league.  But this still seems like a pretty affordable contract for the Twins to have at least made a competitive offer. This seems like exactly the move that two sabre-Sandy Alderson acolytes would make (LaRussa and Stewart).  It would have made a nice PR coup for the Twins, and gotten some more FA pitchers more interested in picking up the phone when the Twins called.  I'm with twinsfansreif,  with the added money coming in to baseball, Tomas is only 24, there's a very good chance that the Twins could have gotten a decent return out of him, and every year on the contract would have been before he turned 30.