Sickels releases his Twins Top 20

[jokin]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/11/8/7157261/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2015-sickels

 

 

A few names from last year have graduated, a few have moved up, a few have stayed the same and quite a few have been displaced by recent draftees and talented comers.  We all knew who #1 was going to be, but there is quite the tone of concern in Sickels' capsule for Buxton:

 

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1) Byron Buxton, OF, Grade A: Borderline A-. Lost season due to injuries although scouting reports are still extremely positive. There’s some momentum in the general baseball mind behind the idea that Buxton will disappoint,

 

but I think the greater risk is that his physical issues may be chronic rather than any real question about his tools and skills.

 

Let’s see if he can avoid the doctors. ETA: 2016

 

Here's the zoomer on this list, this capsule is mouth-watering.  Can Berrios force the issue in 2015 through injuries or lack of effectiveness to seize a spot with the Twins at the tender age of 20 or 21 (his birthday is in late May)?

 

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3) Jose Berrios, RHP, Grade B+: One of my favorite pitching prospects in all of baseball. Fastball in the mid-90s now, solid secondary pitches with two breaking balls and a change-up, excellent makeup, good pitchability, sound sabermetrics. Projects as a number three starter and that may be under-selling him. ETA: late 2015.

 

 

So... 14 players ranked B- or better, very strong grading marks from usually tough, John Sickels.  Likes May a lot better than some would suspect ("Darkhorse ROY Candidate?"), and he really likes guys like Polanco, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Kepler, Harrison, who all have tended to draw rather mixed opinions in Twins Territory... he expects any or all of them could break out at any moment.  And there are plenty below the top 14, even below the top 20 that he finds very intriguing or could blow up, as well.

[Thrylos]

Polanco and Minier too low, Gordon too high IMNSHO

 

The other weird thing:  He projects Meyer as a number 2 starter and then ranks him lower than Berrios whom he projects as a number 3 starter...

[jokin]

Polanco and Minier too low, Gordon too high IMNSHO

 

The other weird thing:  He projects Meyer as a number 2 starter and then ranks him lower than Berrios whom he projects as a number 3 starter...

 

 I was going to include that oddity in my cover, but too much material to write about.  Based on that, is Sickels ranking guys strictly on potential upside, how close to contributing at the major league level or some other criteria, as in the case of Berrios?  He did close with a little harshness about Meyer and his lack of "consistency"-  I wish he wasn't so on the fence and took a stand one way or the other on where he sees Meyer ending up (I saw Meyer pitch in AAA when he was "on", and there was no doubt in that game that he has Ace-level potential when he eventually gets that third pitch down):

 

 

"... looks like a number two starter when his command is on, more like an erratic four or a reliever when it isn’t..."

[Thrylos]

What Sickels might not realize is that Meyer was coming back from shoulder issues and in 2014 he pitched about double the innings he ever pitched in a single season.   I saw him dominate earlier in 2014.  He was practically unhittable in innings 1-4 and on the beginning of the season.  Then he got tired, thus the mechanic issues and the "inconsistency".  That reliever talk is baloney    I am working on my list and have contemplated on ranking him higher than Buxton (who has all the potential, so does Meyer, but has been much more inconsistent than Meyer) to tell you the truth.

[jokin]

What Sickels might not realize is that Meyer was coming back from shoulder issues and in 2014 he pitched about double the innings he ever pitched in a single season.   I saw him dominate earlier in 2014.  He was practically unhittable in innings 1-4 and on the beginning of the season.  Then he got tired, thus the mechanic issues and the "inconsistency".  That reliever talk is baloney    I am working on my list and have contemplated on ranking him higher than Buxton (who has all the potential, so does Meyer, but has been much more inconsistent than Meyer) to tell you the truth.

 

I look forward to it, Thry. And I concur... I wrote back in August, Meyer was a men amongst boys in the game I witnessed.  

 

Do you think Sickels has bought too much into the hype on Gordon, and is he a little high on guys like Kepler and Harrison?

[Mike Sixel]

From the writeups on Berrios and Meyer, it is pretty cleat to me that he thinks Berrios has a higher floor. That leads to the ranking. And, trying to distinguish between the number 3 and 4 guys, as if that is a big deal seems a bit like arguing over a 15 or 17% tip......

[Thrylos]

I look forward to it, Thry. And I concur... I wrote back in August, Meyer was a men amongst boys in the game I witnessed.  

 

Do you think Sickels has bought too much into the hype on Gordon, and is he a little high on guys like Kepler and Harrison?

 

 

There definitely was more hype about Stewart and he apparently did not buy on that.   Here is a good comparison with Gordon (who I don't think is even the Twins' best SS prospect)  This season in E-town as an 18 year old he hit .294/.333/.366.  As an 18 year old in E-town, Jorge Polanco hit .318/.388/.514.  For completeness' sake Sano was 18 in E-town also and hit .292/.352/.637, Rosario was 19 and hit .337/.397/.670, D. Santana, 19: .264/.285/.421, Buxton, 18: .286/.368/.429, Vargas, 20: .322/.377/.489, Goodrum, 19: .275/.352/.382, Arcia, 19: .375/.424/.672.  (Not many other recent high drafted high school kids to compare.)  

 

So Gordon looks a lot like Goodrum for some reason, and in that list, these are the two who do not belong to the group (Santana, of course, but that is another story.)

[cmb0252]

There definitely was more hype about Stewart and he apparently did not buy on that.   Here is a good comparison with Gordon (who I don't think is even the Twins' best SS prospect)  This season in E-town as an 18 year old he hit .294/.333/.366.  As an 18 year old in E-town, Jorge Polanco hit .318/.388/.514.  For completeness' sake Sano was 18 in E-town also and hit .292/.352/.637, Rosario was 19 and hit .337/.397/.670, D. Santana, 19: .264/.285/.421, Buxton, 18: .286/.368/.429, Vargas, 20: .322/.377/.489, Goodrum, 19: .275/.352/.382, Arcia, 19: .375/.424/.672.  (Not many other recent high drafted high school kids to compare.)  

 

So Gordon looks a lot like Goodrum for some reason, and in that list, these are the two who do not belong to the group (Santana, of course, but that is another story.)

You do relies that everyone you named except Buxton (freak) had at least a year of experience in professional ball right? Working with professional coaches in instructional league and getting used to the day to day life of playing everyday. Gordon had to make the jump directly from HS without that luxury. Numbers, especially in the minors, rarely paint an accurate picture. I have Gordon easily as the best SS prospect in the system.

[Thrylos]

You do relies that everyone you named except Buxton (freak) had at least a year of experience in professional ball right? Working with professional coaches in instructional league and getting used to the day to day life of playing everyday. Gordon had to make the jump directly from HS without that luxury. Numbers, especially in the minors, rarely paint an accurate picture. I have Gordon easily as the best SS prospect in the system.

 

Lots of high school first rounders start at E-town (e.g.)

 

T. Harrison: .301/.383/.461

Plouffe: .283/.340/.380

Span: .271/.355/.319

Mauer: .400/.492/.491

 

And I suspect having a dad and a brother in the game (as in Gordon's case,) might be more beneficial than playing streetball in DR and VZ...

[jokin]

From the writeups on Berrios and Meyer, it is pretty cleat to me that he thinks Berrios has a higher floor. That leads to the ranking. And, trying to distinguish between the number 3 and 4 guys, as if that is a big deal seems a bit like arguing over a 15 or 17% tip......

 

I don't quibble with the rankings, can't speak for Thry, it's not a big deal who is #3 or # 4, but what is interesting is the heightened doubt injected on Meyer ever reaching his ceiling, even though he continues to project him as a knocking-on-the-door to the majors, potential #2 SP, and who he also admits has nothing left to prove in AAA.  Lot of fence-sitting.

 

Between the two, the chances for sustained Ace-ness seems to favor Meyer based solely on physical make-up. .  So it is more than a bit foreboding that a respected national analyst still sees the #4 ranked guy possibly ending up as a mere RP.  For this team to get back to annual post-season consideration, it needs an Ace or Aces to assert himself/themselves from the prospect sweepstakes, along with a floor-establishing #3 who very well might over-achieve to a #2 level. 

[Thrylos]

Between the two, the chances for sustained Ace-ness seems to favor Meyer based solely on physical make-up. .

 

Nah

Nothing to do with physical make up (other than the fact that tall guys are slow bloomers - ask Randy Johnson, if you don't believe me.)

 

pure nastiness.

 

Meyer is nasty.  And he got the change-up working last season. That is scary by itself.  Add a plus slow curve and this is more than Johan had to work with when he made it to the show (for real - not the first time)

[Kwak]

With respect  to Meyer (and May) prospect rankings are now immaterial.  It's time for these two to step up to the Twins and demonstrate who they really are as pitchers. 

[jokin]

Nah

Nothing to do with physical make up (other than the fact that tall guys are slow bloomers - ask Randy Johnson, if you don't believe me.)

 

pure nastiness.

 

Meyer is nasty.  And he got the change-up working last season. That is scary by itself.  Add a plus slow curve and this is more than Johan had to work with when he made it to the show (for real - not the first time)

 

Careful, comp Meyer with Randy Johnson and someone's liable to jump all over you for unilaterally declaring that you think both are HoFers.    (I speak from experience.)  I expect a similar matriculation experience for Meyer, lots of 2 steps forward, one step back type of process.

 

I'll go along with you on his stuff being nasty, what he was doing to the Louisville batters the day I saw him throw simply wasn't fair.  And I am more than willing to see him continue his apprenticeship with the Twins early on next season, rather than repeat AAA.  And I don't care if he doesn't make the 5-man opening cut, he can be a spot starter/middle relief guy in the pen starting out, some SP is going to break down or somehow find a way to become unviable inevitably.  And to keep Meyer's innings up and stretched out, they can shuttle him back and forth to Rochester if that becomes necessary.

[Seth Stohs]

As I'm researching and talking to people about prospects for the upcoming Prospect Handbook, I think the Meyer opinions do vary. I think that a lot of people who watch Meyer definitely think that his future is more in the bullpen than starting. That said, I think they will have him get a decent amount of opportunity to start.

 

As for Gordon's ranking... people need to know that stats at E-Town are pretty meaningless to the big picture... Someone above listed guys who had started at E-Town out of high school. Travis Harrison and Denard Span signed too late to play in the GCL the year they were drafted, so they moved to E-Town the year after they were drafted. Mauer and Plouffe were drafted, signed and went right to E-Town.

[DocBauer]

What Sickels might not realize is that Meyer was coming back from shoulder issues and in 2014 he pitched about double the innings he ever pitched in a single season.   I saw him dominate earlier in 2014.  He was practically unhittable in innings 1-4 and on the beginning of the season.  Then he got tired, thus the mechanic issues and the "inconsistency".  That reliever talk is baloney    I am working on my list and have contemplated on ranking him higher than Buxton (who has all the potential, so does Meyer, but has been much more inconsistent than Meyer) to tell you the truth.

NOT trying to stir up old debates and controversies, BUT, is this precisely why the Twins were so patient with Meyer this season and resisted temptation to perhaps promote him too soon?

[DocBauer]

Hey, what do I know?

 

Not much I suppose.

 

And there are NO guarantees. But I honestly see Meyer, May and Berrios all in the rotation within the next year or so. May impressed me with his ability to learn and adapt. Really, his last few starts were pretty impressive. He reminds me of a poor man's Clemons, throws hard, durable, lots of IP and good SO numbers, but maybe not efficient enough to be "the guy".

 

What I've seen of Meyer is sooooo impressive. Just needs a little more consistency with his repeatables and he could be consistently nasty.

 

Berrios doesn't have the height, which is what kept him out of the 1st round. But tell me a single thing he doesn't have from athleticism to stuff to work ethic?

[DocBauer]

Not down on Gordon. Seems to have all the talent to make it, plus the genes.

 

Not saying Santana won't be the answer at SS.

 

But if we're talking SS prospects, I'd also rank Polanco over Gordon. I don't put a lot of credence in error numbers for young Inf's. They are learning, and often playing with lesser talented teammates on fields of poorer quality. What's most important is range and hands, as well as improvement throughout the year. Seems Polanco had that.

[twinssouth]

The only concern I see with Meyer is health. If that shoulder can hold up, in my opinion he's an Ace. I also saw him pitch, his stuff is nasty, hitters have a hard time squaring up.

[Platoon]

I look for a surprising year from May. One thing that seems to be overlooked is his change up. I am sure someone here can find the numbers, but the times I saw him pitch, it seemed very, very effective.

[jay]

I look for a surprising year from May. One thing that seems to be overlooked is his change up. I am sure someone here can find the numbers, but the times I saw him pitch, it seemed very, very effective.

The fastball, curve and slider all graded out very similarly. The change up has the worst scores in his arsenal.

[jay]

Love the Berrios report. Big things on the way from that guy. He has the drive and determination to be great.

[James Richter]

Very encouraging report on May. I plugged the numbers for his last 8 GS (excepting his ghastly debut) into the xFIP formula and came up with 3.77. His biggest problem was working out of jams, but he definitely showed progress in that regard comparing September to August. Pencil him into the rotation and expect good things.

 

Well, average things, anyway.

[bird]

Very encouraging report on May. I plugged the numbers for his last 8 GS (excepting his ghastly debut) into the xFIP formula and came up with 3.77. His biggest problem was working out of jams, but he definitely showed progress in that regard comparing September to August. Pencil him into the rotation and expect good things.

 

Well, average things, anyway.

The thing I like best about May is that there are six other pitching prospects that Sickles deems worthy of the same or better letter grade as May. And most of the 7 of them are a year or two away.

[jokin]

Very encouraging report on May. I plugged the numbers for his last 8 GS (excepting his ghastly debut) into the xFIP formula and came up with 3.77. His biggest problem was working out of jams, but he definitely showed progress in that regard comparing September to August. Pencil him into the rotation and expect good things.

 

Well, average things, anyway.

 

In May's case, his potential average will be good.  I don't mind a bit having a big K, innings-eating  battler in the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation.

[stringer bell]

Not down on Gordon. Seems to have all the talent to make it, plus the genes.

 

Not saying Santana won't be the answer at SS.

 

But if we're talking SS prospects, I'd also rank Polanco over Gordon. I don't put a lot of credence in error numbers for young Inf's. They are learning, and often playing with lesser talented teammates on fields of poorer quality. What's most important is range and hands, as well as improvement throughout the year. Seems Polanco had that.

Can't agree Doc. With Polanco, it seems to me that the question has been about arm strength and range. From what I've seen, Polanco's range would stand as "adequate", but the arm (for a shortstop) would be below average. He's a second baseman trying to stretch his skills at shortstop, to me. That Polanco had a cup of coffee in the majors shouldn't matter. He's still more than a year away from competing for a position on the Twins IMHO. Gordon, of course, is much farther away. Still, I think I would rate Gordon above Polanco as a prospect.

[jokin]

Can't agree Doc. With Polanco, it seems to me that the question has been about arm strength and range. From what I've seen, Polanco's range would stand as "adequate", but the arm (for a shortstop) would be below average.

 

He's a second baseman trying to stretch his skills at shortstop, to me.

 

That Polanco had a cup of coffee in the majors shouldn't matter.

 

He's still more than a year away from competing for a position on the Twins IMHO. Gordon, of course, is much farther away. Still, I think I would rate Gordon above Polanco as a prospect.

 

I saw Polanco in CR and he definitely demonstrated to me more than adequate range and at least an average arm for SS, granted, a subjective difference of opinion, and I doubt he would ever be considered among the top half of defensive SS once he plays full-time in the majors.  And of course, admittedly, my eyeball opinion could have been skewed considering that he was the man amongst mostly mere mortals at the time for the Kernels.  But I think it is significant that the Twins made the commitment to play him full-time at SS in 2014, as well as the confidence they demonstrated in him, which he confirmed, with a successful SSS major league debut.  

 

On Polanco being a year away, for a starting position, sure that's a strong possibility.  But consider, if he gets a hot start in AA or AAA,  he's going to be pushing first-year arb guys,  first Nunez and then Escobar hard, and perhaps making them expendable sooner than you might project.  It looks like there was a conscious effort on the part of the Twins to improve and increase the production of Polanco's baserunning tool in 2014, another thing to watch for going into 2015.

[jokin]

As I'm researching and talking to people about prospects for the upcoming Prospect Handbook, I think the Meyer opinions do vary. I think that a lot of people who watch Meyer definitely think that his future is more in the bullpen than starting. 

 

If a good number of reputable prospect analysts are in your mix of "people" who really believe what they're telling you about ending up in the pen, then Meyer is a wildly overrated mainstay on every single Top 100 list, as well as his lofty ranking at #3 or #4 on the Twins Top 20 list.

[nytwinsfan]

I saw Polanco in CR and he definitely demonstrated to me more than adequate range and at least an average arm for SS, granted, a subjective difference of opinion, and I doubt he would ever be considered among the top half of defensive SS once he plays full-time in the majors.  And of course, admittedly, my eyeball opinion could have been skewed considering that he was the man amongst mostly mere mortals at the time for the Kernels.  But I think it is significant that the Twins made the commitment to play him full-time at SS in 2014, as well as the confidence they demonstrated in him, which he confirmed, with a successful SSS major league debut.  

 

On Polanco being a year away, for a starting position, sure that's a strong possibility.  But consider, if he gets a hot start in AA or AAA,  he's going to be pushing first-year arb guys,  first Nunez and then Escobar hard, and perhaps making them expendable sooner than you might project.  It looks like there was a conscious effort on the part of the Twins to improve and increase the production of Polanco's baserunning tool in 2014, another thing to watch for going into 2015.

 

I think they are playing Polanco at SS because with Santana, Escobar, and later Gordon, they see his role as a future very valuable utility player, filling in for both 2nd Base and SS, and in a pinch, 3rd base. I think it is unlikely he'll be a starting SS based on the reviews of his arm, and the fact that we have Santana, Escobar, and Gordon.

[jokin]

I think they are playing Polanco at SS because with Santana, Escobar, and later Gordon, they see his role as a future very valuable utility player, filling in for both 2nd Base and SS, and in a pinch, 3rd base. I think it is unlikely he'll be a starting SS based on the reviews of his arm, and the fact that we have Santana, Escobar, and Gordon.

 

You could very well be right, but Santana is still a big question mark at SS, and Escobar is already the epitome of the "very valuable utility player," with not much upside remaining at the specific position.  Plus Santana has a high hurdle to overcome to convince  that his 2014 plate production wasn't a fluke.

 

I think we have to face the fact that each has specific areas of weakness or question marks... the jury is likely to remain out on any of the 4 as the odds-on favorite. As of right now, it's Santana's to lose.  If he seizes his opportunity, then great.  If Santana stumbles at the position, or fails to hit, or both, it opens up the opportunity for Polanco.  

 

IMO, Polanco is so extremely talented, particularly at the plate, that it makes it way too soon for the Twins to already be thinking of this 21-year old as merely a utility player. Plus his largest trade value comes about with the perception that he has the chops to play at SS, even if he isn't among the defensive elite. By comparison, guys who should be looked at to fill potential future utility roles are Michael, Beresford and Goodrum.

[jokin]

Overlooked with all the flash and sizzle of the 9 pitchers in the top 20, are 12 pitchers that Sickels assigned with a C ranking, which implies they still have a decent chance to be anywhere from a major league role player to a future star.  And buried deep near the end of Sickels' article he had this to say about C-rated, Adrian Salcedo:

 

 

Even forgotten former hot prospect Adrian Salcedo still shows flashes. 

 

I remember being quite high on Salcedo before his injury troubles in 2012, completely lost track of him, and was pleasantly surprised to find out that he's still only 23, still throws in the low-to-mid 90s, and has done quite well pitching mostly out of the pen the last two seasons, this year playing in AA, about 1.6 years in age below Eastern League average.   Seth had Salcedo as high as #12 back in 2012, before eventually seeing him fall back to #50, before dropping off of his latest Twins lists completely.

 

Superficially, his stats look pedestrian, being marred by a 4+ ERA, together with ~league average WHIP around 1.40.  But looking inside his stats, he actually did really, really well, scoring near the top of the league in a ton of categories for pitchers who threw more than 70 IPs, even beating or nearly matching the Twins top 2014 AA pitchers, Gilmartin and Rogers, in many categories.  The Ksw, GB% and LD% numbers really stand out, not much hard contact against him.

 

Stats for Salcedo from Minorleaguecentral.com, stat with league ranking:

 

FIP       2.58 3rd

SIERA  3.13 5th

GB%   58.4%  4th

LD%   10.7%  4th

K%     24.0%  5th

K/9      9.37  4th

AB/K   3.78  5th

Ksw    20.8%  2nd

Ksw/Kl 6.60  2nd

K/BB   3.17  20th

HR/9   0.25 3rd

HR/FB  3.8  5th

HR/Cont.  0.9  3rd

OFB%  24.8%  9th

GB/FB  2.08  5th

 

BABIP  .360  2nd highest

LOB     64.1%  12th lowest

 

He seems like a prime candidate to be drafted away in the Rule 5 minor league phase, hopefully the Twins can retain him.  His role this year was primarily in middle relief as he had to defer to the older pitchers, who, BTW,  none of whom Sickels even gave a C grade to- Oliveros, O'Rourke and Cole Johnson- got the bulk of the late innings for New Britain.

 

The video out there on him on Youtube isn't very good.  He is still very tall and skinny, his body evidently isn't done filling out.  The Twins saw enough in him to re-sign him to a minor league contract a couple weeks ago. 

 

To Seth, and you guys who saw New Britain play this year, or have seen him in Florida, feel free to weigh in on his prospect prospects...  Is Sickels all wet and working off of a dated tout sheet?  Or... can Salcedo put in a third straight strong year out of the pen, boosting his place in the ML RP depth hierarchy?  Or can he get all the way back into the conversation as a SP prospect (he did have 6 starts in 2014)?