Fangraphs: Molitor On Shifts

[jorgenswest]

Fangraphs Sunday Notes

 

"The Minnesota Twins have learned to love the shift. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Ron Gardenhire‘s club went into the All-Star break having shifted on 251 balls in play, 13th-most in baseball. Last year they shifted just 84 times on balls in play, sixth-fewest in baseball..."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-molitor-on-shifts-chen-down-the-middle-rusty-kuntz-more

[drjim]

Good read.

 

This type of article makes me think of the clamoring for outside voices. I think that can be overstated. To me it can be just as effective to empower new people. Molitor is a great example of this. He could take over as manager and it wouldn't be from the outside but clearly he would have a different way of going about his business.

[Twins Twerp]

Yet results are same...

[old nurse]

Did they have a stat to say how effective the shifts were? They may have used them more often, but the important part is if they are effective.

[nicksaviking]

Yet results are same...

 

Unfortunately, shifts do jack when every other batted ball is a scorcher off the wall.

[TheLeviathan]

It's hard to prove something is working with a counter-factual attached to the argument.  If someone has a suggestion to analyze if it's working that would be great.  Otherwise this sounds like a lot of undo skepticism.

[The Wise One]

It's hard to prove something is working with a counter-factual attached to the argument.  If someone has a suggestion to analyze if it's working that would be great.  Otherwise this sounds like a lot of undo skepticism.

There is probably a statistic for balls to the walls. To determine if the shifts work in general you would look atBABIP with a shift on vs babip when they do not shift. It might even be a large enough sample by the end of the season to be valid. Undue skepticism? Is it wrong for people to wonder how well it works? Numbers may actually undo skepticism

[TheLeviathan]

There is probably a statistic for balls to the walls. To determine if the shifts work in general you would look atBABIP with a shift on vs babip when they do not shift. It might even be a large enough sample by the end of the season to be valid. Undue skepticism? Is it wrong for people to wonder how well it works? Numbers may actually undo skepticism

 

If people are wondering, google works for them as well.  Rather than knee-jerk to doubt Molitor's contributions, why not see if there is good reason why he might be implementing it.  Here is just one sample of some data, if one needs more perhaps they can do some looking too.  There was no claim being made here so those looking for data have the onus to find it.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/04/29/mlb-emphasis-defensive-shifts-astros-yankees

[The Wise One]

If people are wondering, google works for them as well.  Rather than knee-jerk to doubt Molitor's contributions, why not see if there is good reason why he might be implementing it.  Here is just one sample of some data, if one needs more perhaps they can do some looking too.  There was no claim being made here so those looking for data have the onus to find it.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/04/29/mlb-emphasis-defensive-shifts-astros-yankees

 

No statistics for the Twins. Is there a trend figuring out how to beat the shift. Are batters learning their tendancies and learning to adjust. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Your article did not adress that very well for the Twins as a team

[TheLeviathan]

No statistics for the Twins. Is there a trend figuring out how to beat the shift. Are batters learning their tendancies and learning to adjust. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Your article did not adress that very well for the Twins as a team

 

Of course not...they've only been doing it for a year.  There isn't nearly enough data for trends in that time. 

 

Shifts are generally showing to be effective, that's all that data showed.  If you doubt what the Twins are doing, you are more than welcome to post data.  No claim was made that Molitor revolutionized the Twins, so if one is skeptical of the results perhaps one could provide some basis for that.

 

Otherwise I'll go with the general data that it's effective.

[TheLeviathan]

And here's another analysis from 2013:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/5/5471442/estimating-number-of-runs-saved-by-infield-shifts

[Willihammer]

Good read.

 

This type of article makes me think of the clamoring for outside voices. I think that can be overstated. To me it can be just as effective to empower new people. Molitor is a great example of this. He could take over as manager and it wouldn't be from the outside but clearly he would have a different way of going about his business.

Molitor kinda is an outside voice. He left before the 2002 season when Gardy was made manager.

 

Does anyone believe the Twins would be shifting as much as they do if he hadn't re-joined the club this year?

[drjim]

Molitor kinda is an outside voice. He left before the 2002 season when Gardy was made manager.

 

Does anyone believe the Twins would be shifting as much as they do if he hadn't re-joined the club this year?

 

I don't. I would like them to clean out much of the coaching staff, but I still think the can hire Molitor and not have it be same old same old old boys club.

 

He is not young in years, but I would see him bringing new energy and enthusiasm, and he would be an inspired hire for pr reasons. Sadly, that might be the only way to get any type of enthusiasm going into next year.

[The Wise One]

And here's another analysis from 2013:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/5/5471442/estimating-number-of-runs-saved-by-infield-shifts

Jeez Levi. I wasn't posting about if shifts work.Or Molitor is an evil creature. Well, shifts can until the hitters adjust to hitting the ball the other way. Matt Carpenter was hitting better against the shift than he was a straight up defense. He can hit the ball the other way. The questions I asked was how were the Twins doing. was because if you shift I would think that the pitcher would have to throw more pitches that the hitter would have to try to pull versus slap the other way. Just like P2C is a bad idea with poor pitchers, I would wonder what the net effect would be for poorer pitchers.