BA mock draft

[garrioch13]

Aside from the natural injury concerns that come with a pitcher, Buxton is no safer of a bet than the top arms. He looks exactly like Donavan Tate, the 3rd overall pick of the 2009 draft by the Padres. After one season he fell off BA's top 100 prospect list. If there was a sure thing postion player available, everyone would know and there would be no debate.

Tate has had some major off-field issues. I don't forsee that with Buxton and Buxton is a better athlete. Tate may have had more raw power but that is the only edge he had.

[Mike Sixel]

Law has them taking Buxton also....I like Gausman right now, I think.

[Thrylos]

I think at #2, you have to take the BPA. Hopefully, we won't be picking this high very often, .

Here is another reason that you take the best player available and with the best ratings even if you do not have a foreseable need in that position:

 

You can trade him a year later to fill a real need. The better the prospect the better the return.

[gunnarthor]

Law has them taking Buxton also....I like Gausman right now, I think.

Buxton's the wildcard. I think the Twins would pass on Zunino but if the Astros don't take Buxton, I'm not sure the Twins FO would be able to pass on his upside, even for Zimmer.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is another reason that you take the best player available and with the best ratings even if you do not have a foreseable need in that position:

 

You can trade him a year later to fill a real need. The better the prospect the better the return.

I agree, but then you need to be willing to make trades of elite prospects....

[nicksaviking]

Tate has had some major off-field issues. I don't forsee that with Buxton and Buxton is a better athlete. Tate may have had more raw power but that is the only edge he had.

Tate was lauded much more than Buxton is now, he was supposed to be the best athlete in the draft. If Strausburg wasn't such a no-brainer Tate may have gone #1. The 2009 draft class was very strong, while everyone agrees this one is not. Tate may have off-field problems but it isn't affecting his playing time. He looked good on paper but he is not producing against competent talent. His power all but disappeared.

[mlhouse]

THe Twins need to take either Gausman or Appel at #2. Then at #32 hope a guy like Chris Stratton or Brian Johnson falls to that pick. At #42 maybe Alex Wood or Cory Jones. Three college arms in the top 42 is the way to go. Not one of them, even Gasman or Appel, seems to project as a #1 starter, but that is what the draft has to offer. If Gausman or Appel can get to the majors quickly as a #2 type of guy, and one of the other two becomes similar to Scott Baker, and does so fairly quickly, the Twins can rebuild their pitching staff. IF they get lucky, they get 2 starters from this draft and another starter from Gibson/Wimmers within two years (if I ran the team the #1 guy would be in the starting rotation the day he signs, why not?).

 

I understand the "upside" appeal of Buxton, and that is hard to pass up. But he is a HS player and even if he is rushed will take 3-4 years to get to the majors. We have other similar prospects (Hicks) and they simply need to rebuild the staff right now, not 5 years from now.

[Shane Wahl]

It is not clear that Buxton is far and away the best player. That is the problem with the BPA approach. Zimmer, Appel, and Gausman might be all fairly interchangeable, so taking one of them would be what I would do.

[Steve Lein]

what shanewahl said. I've seen guys who love Buxton, saying they'd slot him just ahead of Bubba Starling last year, but I've also seen guys who don't even rate him the #1 Outfielder in this draft. Personally, he's the scariest of all the prospects who have the potential to go in the top 3 to me and has by far the most bust potential. Might also have the highest ceiling, but that then makes a very large spectrum of possibilities for what he might develop into. I also knock him down a few pegs because one thing the Twins have is OF prospects. If we're rebuilding, they absolutely HAVE TO address the starting pitching problem. And by that I mean Top End talent. They are only going to get that at the #2 pick. There's not a single guy in the system who the experts would rate as having a #1 ceiling (keep in mind, #1 is different than an "Ace"), probably not even any #2 ceiling guys.

 

Was over at Jim Callis Baseball America chat today, and he answered my following question (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613413.html):

 

"Steve L. (Minneapolis, MN): I understand the "draft the BPA" ideology in baseball, but with the Twins SP prospects in the minors in dire straights, can you make the argument they have to draft a SP at #2? And as a follow up, is there another team in baseball worse off in high-end pitching prospects?

 

Jim Callis: You can definitely make the argument. The Twins don't have any obvious pitching answers in their system."

 

You don't rebuild for 2014 or 2015 by taking Buxton, that's my only issue with those who are referencing him when they say "get the best player available". I think you have to weigh "BPA" and "timetable-for/positional-need impact" if we're rebuilding for 2014, 2015. That heavily favors going after a SP. And just as a sidenote, I like Kyle Zimmer the best.

[James]

what shanewahl said. I've seen guys who love Buxton, saying they'd slot him just ahead of Bubba Starling last year, but I've also seen guys who don't even rate him the #1 Outfielder in this draft. Personally, he's the scariest of all the prospects who have the potential to go in the top 3 to me and has by far the most bust potential. Might also have the highest ceiling, but that then makes a very large spectrum of possibilities for what he might develop into. I also knock him down a few pegs because one thing the Twins have is OF prospects. If we're rebuilding, they absolutely HAVE TO address the starting pitching problem. And by that I mean Top End talent. They are only going to get that at the #2 pick. There's not a single guy in the system who the experts would rate as having a #1 ceiling (keep in mind, #1 is different than an "Ace"), probably not even any #2 ceiling guys.

 

Was over at Jim Callis Baseball America chat today, and he answered my following question (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613413.html):

 

"Steve L. (Minneapolis, MN): I understand the "draft the BPA" ideology in baseball, but with the Twins SP prospects in the minors in dire straights, can you make the argument they have to draft a SP at #2? And as a follow up, is there another team in baseball worse off in high-end pitching prospects?

 

Jim Callis: You can definitely make the argument. The Twins don't have any obvious pitching answers in their system."

 

You don't rebuild for 2014 or 2015 by taking Buxton, that's my only issue with those who are referencing him when they say "get the best player available". I think you have to weigh "BPA" and "timetable-for/positional-need impact" if we're rebuilding for 2014, 2015. That heavily favors going after a SP. And just as a sidenote, I like Kyle Zimmer the best.

I totally agree with you that we need starting pitching. I think the argument other people were making was that you would take Buxton, and then trade some other outfield prospects for pitching prospects. You would have to assume then that other teams would give up pitching prospects for a guy like Aaron Hicks. The more I read up on the draft, the more I'm convinced that the Twins need to take Gausman or Zimmer. Appel still makes me a little nervous because of how much he has been used, and every thing I read said that his stuff should translate in more strike outs, but somehow doesn't.

[gunnarthor]

You don't rebuild for 2014 or 2015 by taking Buxton, that's my only issue with those who are referencing him when they say "get the best player available". I think you have to weigh "BPA" and "timetable-for/positional-need impact" if we're rebuilding for 2014, 2015. That heavily favors going after a SP. And just as a sidenote, I like Kyle Zimmer the best.

I think I mostly agree with you. I guess if the Twins are confident that Buxton will turn into our Matt Kemp or are worried about the potential health issues (that we haven't been privy too) of a guy like Zimmer or Guasman, I'd rather they go with a starter. I haven't seen much to make me think that Buxton is without a doubt the BPA.

[jtrinaldi]

The first 2 picks wil be Appel or Buxton, it just depends who the Astros take, they are the 2 upper echelon prospects in the draft.