A's trade for Samardzija

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe that is the issue, the minors can't produce players that can crack this awesome team......

[TheLeviathan]

Which guys are being clogged? On one hand we're hearing that the Twins rushed Arcia and Hicks and others are complaining that - presumably - the minor leaguers aren't learning at the big league level. Twins don't spend money on FA and now Willingham and Nolasco shouldn't have been signed. I don't see anyone of any future importance being blocked. I don't really care if AJ Achter is up or not.

 

I really don't care if anyone is being blocked or not. I care that they're handing out multi-year deals to players with minimal chance of having trade value and no chance of being anything other than placeholders. If they are just place holders....why not just gamble with someone else that's under the age of 30? Those guys exist (and largely fail, but the point is about approach moreso than results) every year to gamble on.

 

I applaud them signing Nolasco, for the symbolism most of all. Pelfrey? Good god that was stupid from the outset and has proven to be even more ridiculous with time. The team has to get away from feeling the need to appear to be contending. I'd rather have them take risks (like with Nolasco) and fail then see them play it ridiculously safe (see Kubel and Bartlett) and fail. This team has actually managed to get OLDER not younger the last three years.

 

We see some great things happening in the minors. That doesn't excuse bungling opportunities with the big league club.

[RedBull34]

I really don't care if anyone is being blocked or not. I care that they're handing out multi-year deals to players with minimal chance of having trade value and no chance of being anything other than placeholders. If they are just place holders....why not just gamble with someone else that's under the age of 30? Those guys exist (and largely fail, but the point is about approach moreso than results) every year to gamble on.

 

I applaud them signing Nolasco, for the symbolism most of all. Pelfrey? Good god that was stupid from the outset and has proven to be even more ridiculous with time. The team has to get away from feeling the need to appear to be contending. I'd rather have them take risks (like with Nolasco) and fail then see them play it ridiculously safe (see Kubel and Bartlett) and fail. This team has actually managed to get OLDER not younger the last three years.

 

We see some great things happening in the minors. That doesn't excuse bungling opportunities with the big league club.

 

I agree about the Pelfrey signing simply because of the two year nature of it. Kubel and Bartlett less so simply because they didn't really block anybody and we at least got something (even if not much) out of Kubel.

[gunnarthor]

I really don't care if anyone is being blocked or not. I care that they're handing out multi-year deals to players with minimal chance of having trade value and no chance of being anything other than placeholders. If they are just place holders....why not just gamble with someone else that's under the age of 30? Those guys exist (and largely fail, but the point is about approach moreso than results) every year to gamble on.

 

Who has Ryan given multi-year deals to? Hammer and Correia will probably be traded in the next month. Doumit was traded. Pelfrey. Hughes. Nolasco. Perkins. Did I miss someone? Yeah, I didn't like the Kubel signing but it was defensible and he and Bartlett combined for 180 PA so I'm not going to freak out over it. Heck, the Cubs have giving 100 more PA to Nate Schierholtz.

[TheLeviathan]

Heck, the Cubs have giving 100 more PA to Nate Schierholtz.

 

Nate Schierholtz was a minor league deal the Cubs turned into 21 HRs and a 108 OPS+ last year.

 

That's the difference. Has Schierholtz been awful this year? Sure has, but they take flyers on guys like him and Arrieta and not friggin Pelfrey and Kubel. I want them to invest, no matter how long the odds, in high ceilings.

 

Hughes was the only example of that and I strongly and proudly applauded that move beforehand and afterward.

[gunnarthor]

Nate Schierholtz was a minor league deal the Cubs turned into 21 HRs and a 108 OPS+ last year.

 

That's the difference. Has Schierholtz been awful this year? Sure has, but they take flyers on guys like him and Arrieta and not friggin Pelfrey and Kubel. I want them to invest, no matter how long the odds, in high ceilings.

 

Hughes was the only example of that and I strongly and proudly applauded that move beforehand and afterward.

Fine, what did they get for that 21 home runs? Nothing. They didn't move him. He's been horrible this year and they keep throwing him out there. Schierholtz was never a high ceiling guy or somebody with an established record. He was a journey man who got lucky and had a good year. Sorta like Scott Diamond. By your own logic, the Cubs failed twice by not getting anything for him last year and by wasting nearly 300 PA on him this year.

 

Heck, Kubel had a much better track record and was only a year away from 30 homer season. But it's ridiculous to bitch about Kubel as a way of saying they aren't rebuilding as this started.

[TheLeviathan]

Sorta like Scott Diamond.

 

Scott Diamond was a smart move by the club. Jason Kubel was not. Nor was Bartlett.

 

They aren't targeting enough upside. And they haven't been with the major league roster for awhile.

[gunnarthor]

Scott Diamond was a smart move by the club. Jason Kubel was not. Nor was Bartlett.

 

They aren't targeting enough upside. And they haven't been with the major league roster for awhile.

I think what this might lead to is a discussion of how the Twins do in free agency. I think that's best put off for now.

 

But Schierholtz (and Diamond) was not a high upside signing. He was a cheap placeholder until they could develop pieces to replace him. Every team does that. Willingham is also a place holder but it looks like he is one that the Twins can get something for, despite being over 30.

[TheLeviathan]

But Schierholtz (and Diamond) was not a high upside signing. He was a cheap placeholder until they could develop pieces to replace him. Every team does that. Willingham is also a place holder but it looks like he is one that the Twins can get something for, despite being over 30.

 

You're wrong. Both of those guys were formally high-touted prospects that flopped as they approached the big leagues. Those kinds of guys have FAR more upside than, say, Bartlett. Or Correia.

[gunnarthor]

You're wrong. Both of those guys were formally high-touted prospects that flopped as they approached the big leagues. Those kinds of guys have FAR more upside than, say, Bartlett. Or Correia.

Neither guy was ever a highly touted prospect. Schierholtz was taken in the 2nd round (63rd overall) and never cracked a top 100 list. He put up decent numbers in the PCL but managed about 2 WAR over three seasons jumping between AAA/ML at ages 26-28. He's the very definition of journeyman.

 

Sickels write up: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/2/20/1318323/2010/2/20/1318323/not-a-rookie-nate-schierholtz

 

Diamond was the same. BA wrote that "At his best, Diamond has shown fringe-to-average fastball velocity at 86-91 mph, and his overhand arm slot gives him a curveball that has been his best pitch throughout his minor league career."

 

No one ever had Diamond as a highly touted prospect. BA trade write up suggests that he was going to be given a potential LOOGY role. Sickels even had a prospect of the day write up on him: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/26/3117444/prospect-of-the-day-scott-diamond-lhp-minnesota-twins-scouting-report

[tobi0040]

Billy Beane. I just love that guy.

 

I am usually in the camp of lets make a run at this and Billy Beane is a smart guy. But if we had given up Buxton for Jeff S. and Hammel I can't say I would be cheering (Russell is the 3rd rated prospect in the game).

 

Jeff S. is a free agent in 15 months and is demanding a $100M deal over 5-6 years. He has a career 3.95 ERA in the NL. He has definitely been good this year, but do you want to hand out that deal? The A's won't and his value for 3 months won't be as high as what they gave up for him (when they try and flip him).

 

Hammel has a career 4.62 ERA, also having a good year. It just seems to me this is a huge buy high deal.

 

The only other time I remember the A's doing something like this it was a Matt Holiday rental for Carlos Gonzalez. That turned out very badly for them, this has the chance to as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Neither guy was ever a highly touted prospect.

 

In 2007 he was the Giant's 4th best prospect on some BA lists. Was he a top 100 player? No, but still on a different stratosphere of upside than, say, Correia.

 

I was wrong about Diamond's ranking, confused him with a Texas prospect. Even still, he had more upside than Correia.

 

I could bring up Brandon Moss, Chris Davis, Jake Arrieta, etc. Guys like this are always around to take a gamble on - the success stories are few and far between, but I'd much rather gamble there then on Correia, Kubel, Bartlett, Pelfrey, etc.

[biggentleben]

In 2007 he was the Giant's 4th best prospect on some BA lists. Was he a top 100 player? No, but still on a different stratosphere of upside than, say, Correia.

 

I was wrong about Diamond's ranking, confused him with a Texas prospect. Even still, he had more upside than Correia.

 

I could bring up Brandon Moss, Chris Davis, Jake Arrieta, etc. Guys like this are always around to take a gamble on - the success stories are few and far between, but I'd much rather gamble there then on Correia, Kubel, Bartlett, Pelfrey, etc.

 

I think you're misremembering Correia, though. He was very highly thought of after his 2003 season where he jumped to AAA and put up a 23/2 K/BB rate in 19 innings of AAA ball in the PCL just one year after being drafted. There wasn't the huge prospect coverage that there is now, but I believe Sickels was on ESPN at the time, because I remember him really being high on Correia, which led me to pick him up in a dynasty league.

 

Pelfrey was a big time prospect as was Kubel, and Kubel and Barlett had both produced at a fairly high level in the big leagues. Bartlett less recently, but Kubel in 2012 was a guy who put up 30 home runs while playing outfield in Arizona. Pelfrey's money was a poor choice, but taking a flyer on guys like Kubel and Bartlett weren't bad ideas at all, especially with Kubel.

 

There are many things to rip on the Twins about, but using an angle that they weren't going after guys who were once highly-touted prospects is not accurate, even if that prospect time was some time ago.

[TheLeviathan]

There are many things to rip on the Twins about, but using an angle that they weren't going after guys who were once highly-touted prospects is not accurate, even if that prospect time was some time ago.

 

Cmon ben, that's a totally different conversation. Picking up guys 2-3 years away from being hyped and guys 15 years from it are not even in the same ballpark.

 

The team hasn't targeted enough young buy-lows and has preferred old buy-inbetweens. That's the problem.

[biggentleben]

Cmon ben, that's a totally different conversation. Picking up guys 2-3 years away from being hyped and guys 15 years from it are not even in the same ballpark.

 

The team hasn't targeted enough young buy-lows and has preferred old buy-inbetweens. That's the problem.

 

But stating that Kubel had limited or no upside is incorrect as well, even if he wasn't a "prospect". He hit 30 home runs while having to play the field in 2012.

 

Pelfrey the first go-round was a post-hype guy, but he didn't work out. The oddity was resigning him after they tried that path once. They also acquired a post-hype prospect in their Doumit trade when they got Gilmartin, and he pitched well in AA, but AAA looks a lot like his AAA season of 2013. The Twins have attempted to go after some formerly hyped guys, and they didn't work out. The A's have done it a lot more, so we see their successes much more than their failures. They've converted roughly a dozen players from hitters to pitchers in the last 5-7 years, per Billy Beane, but Sean Doolittle works out, so they're considered geniuses of converting players. Similarly, they take a risk on a ton of post-hype guys, and many of them fail, but we remember the guys who succeed.

[TheLeviathan]

But stating that Kubel had limited or no upside is incorrect as well, even if he wasn't a "prospect". He hit 30 home runs while having to play the field in 2012.

 

Sure, he had some upside. But he's not young and it was extremely limited, especially given what he demonstrated in ST. And I would credit Gilmartin as a fine gamble. There haven't been enough of them.

 

I've also fully acknowledged they fail far more often than they succeed - which is why you need to cast your net wide. We haven't done enough of that IMO.

[biggentleben]

Sure, he had some upside. But he's not young and it was extremely limited, especially given what he demonstrated in ST. And I would credit Gilmartin as a fine gamble. There haven't been enough of them.

 

I've also fully acknowledged they fail far more often than they succeed - which is why you need to cast your net wide. We haven't done enough of that IMO.

 

Those sorts of guys tend to get to be the sort of signing that gets a lot of panning, however. The Braves got a lot of grief from team fans because of letting Ernesto Mejia go to Japan without shopping him around, but reports in the month afterward confirmed the Braves had active trade talks with roughly a half-dozen teams, but none would give anything of value for Mejia, and according to an "anonymous source", one GM reported that giving anything of value for Mejia would get him lambasted in the local media. When GMs are getting ripped for such moves, some guys ignore that noise and keep up with their plan, like Beane when he signed a guy who'd been let go by three organizations and had been a top-100 guy once, 7 years prior that turned into Brandon Moss. Other guys tend to shy away from those deals, especially if their club is struggling with poor PR.

[TheLeviathan]

Other guys tend to shy away from those deals, especially if their club is struggling with poor PR.

 

That's very true, I'd just like our administration to be a bit more brave and daring. Especially when there is so little to lose.