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The Next 13 Position Players


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Assuming the Twins start the season with 13 position players and also assuming that there are no significant injuries to the leading 13 position players, it seems almost set in stone who is breaking camp for the Twins. Those players will be Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, and Eduardo Nunez. Really only Hicks and Nunez leave any doubt, but it is hard to see the team going any other way (I don't really care for Nunez on the roster, but he is very cheap and at least runs well).

 

I decided to go through the list of players both on and off the 40-man roster who could be next up for the Twins, whether it be for injury or performance reasons, and whether it be for prospect development or mere roster completion.

 

The other position players on the 40-man roster besides these 13 are: SS/2B Jorge Polanco, 3B Miguel Sano, C/LF/RF Chris Herrmann, OF/2B Eddie Rosario, and OF/1B Max Kepler.

 

Four of these players are prospects, and only one of those prospects has any time in MLB (Polanco). Polanco needs seasoning in AA and AAA before coming back to the Twins. After being very successful in A+ ball (.291/.364/.415), he definitely struggled at times in AA (.281/.323/.342). He did have 36 extra base hits (seven homers) and 17 steals for the year, while his 55/88 BB/K rate between the two levels is respectable. It is important to remember that Polanco is almost two months younger than Sano.

 

Speaking of, Sano should join the Twins at some point this season, though it seems unlikely to be before the All-Star break. The Twins will want him to dominate AA (he may be asked to do the same in AAA too). I would expect Sano to simply replace Nunez on the roster, but obviously play almost every day. The Twins are going to have to figure something out with Plouffe, as I can't see the Twins moving Sano to any other position during the season. Sano boasts a career .940 OPS in 1606 plate appearances in the minors.

 

Rosario needs AA seasoning as well, though he was very successful in the AFL. He might position himself to move up with Sano. I would expect him to replace Schafer on the roster, but play almost every day. Rosario managed only a .237/.277/.396 line at AA last season, but in the AFL his numbers improved to .330/.345/.410, with 10 steals.

 

Max Kepler posted a .264/.333/.393 line at A+ last season, but had AFL success too (.307/.366/.440). He is the farthest from MLB of any of these prospects. He should spend a full season in Chattanooga.

 

Chris Herrmann graduated from prospect status at some point in 2013. He provides another catching option while providing depth in the corner OF positions. The Twins like him and feel safe with adding him if they need a player while someone else goes on a DL stint. He has struggled in MLB, but finally started to pound AAA pitching with an .878 OPS in 228 plate appearances for Rochester in 2014.

 

There are players not currently on the 40-man roster who would obviously need someone else off or someone placed on the DL to get a chance to play for the Twins.

 

Eric Fryer and Dan Rohlfing are two catchers playing for Rochester who could get a chance with the Twins in 2015. Fryer spent significant time with the big league club last year (.578 OPS) and would be the most likely fill-in if Suzuki or Pinto are injured for any longer amount time. Rohlfing is a nice all-around player who needs to get his bat going in AAA to be taken seriously (.618 OPS in 2014 there).

 

The infielders who could move up from Rochester are utility players James Beresford and Doug Bernier, and 1B/corner OFs Brock Peterson and Reynaldo Rodriguez. Beresford (.674 OPS, with 28 doubles for Rochester in 2014) just turned 26 and must be considered before the aging Bernier (.744 OPS in 2014 for Rochester). He is very consistent both offensively and defensively and would fill in nicely for as a utility player either for Escobar or to replace someone else if Escobar became the starter for a period of time. Peterson and Rodriguez have had ample minor league slugging success (Peterson has hit 40 homers in the past two years, and Rodriguez has hit 43). The path to the Twins for these two is pretty steep, though Rodriguez could be a nice bench bat as a RH guy with some power.

 

The outfielders for Rochester are three aging players and Danny Ortiz, who is a marginal prospect at this point mainly because he simply does not take any walks. Eric Farris (.671 career AAA OPS), Shane Robinson (.708 career AAA OPS), and Wilkin Ramirez (.726 career AAA OPS) are not worthy of MLB consideration anymore, though Farris is speedy and can also play second base. Ortiz has put up solid enough numbers and finished 2014 with a .285/.308/.462 line and 12 homers between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he struck out 85 times while walking only 13 times. He is able to play all three OF positions, though CF is a bit of a long shot.

 

Last--but certainly not least--there is Byron Buxton, future CF for the Minnesota Twins. Buxton will start in a ridiculously loaded AA lineup in Chattanooga (with Sano, Rosario, Polanco, etc.). Buxton posted a .240/.313/.405 line with four homers and six steals in 134 plate appearances in A+ ball in 2014. Given the freak injuries of a year ago, Buxton's development has been stunted. I don't see him arriving in Minnesota before September this year.

 

On top of the 13 players likely breaking camp with the Twins I have added 13 players who could see time with the club in the near future. Five of them are already on the 40-man roster and have the inside track to joining the Twins, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the guys not currently on the 40-man roster to make an appearance, especially Fryer, Beresford, and Ortiz.

10 Comments


Recommended Comments

lightfoot789

Posted

Another prospect would have to fall into my next 13. My Rationale:

 

I'm going with the only player other than Jorge Polanco to make the Twins organizational All Star team each of the last 2 seasons.

 

I'm going with the only Twins player to make a minor league Mid Season and Post Season All Star Team each of the last 2 seasons.

 

I'm going with the only player to win a championship series Most Outstanding Player Award during the last 3 seasons (2012).

 

I'm going with the guy who has yielded the following over the last 2 seasons:

487 Total Bases (most of any Twin Prospect)

323 Hits

161 Runs Scored (top 2 of any Twin prospect)

50 Doubles

7 Triples

52 Home Runs (most of any Twin prospect)

203 RBI (most of any Twin prospect)

.796 OPS (not bad for any prospect)

 

All done before his 23rd birthday and

 

Despite the following:

75 BB's

271 K's

lightfoot789

Posted

Worth the look even if it meant watching him fail. The worst scenario is his contact rate gets worse, but what if he figures it out?

 

Just saying that holding him back because of the probable would be crazy. The juice is definitely worth the squeeze in terms of next 13 opportunities...............................

Shane Wahl

Posted

Yeah, I just don't see him making it up in 2015. They are going to want to see something more from him in terms of contact. I guess there could be a remaining fire sale and September could mean a bunch of calls up for players.

stringer bell

Posted

I think Shane Robinson has a decent shot at starting the season with the Twins. He has over three years of big league time with the Cardinals, is a solid three-position outfielder, with decent wheels. Should the Twins decide to send Hicks out for his final option (I hope they do!), then Robinson makes sense to start the season until Hicks, Rosario or Buxton show they are ready and claim center field.

 

Also, if things break right, Stuart Turner might get a shot behind the plate.

Shane Wahl

Posted

I understand the Hicks-to-AAA view. At a certain point though, I think that ship sails. In the past I have been adamant about the necessity of AAA time for almost *all* prospects because I think there is value in that level. But when there is this struggle up in MLB after a risky (wild) promotion skipping AAA altogether, I don't like the idea of flopping back and forth between MLB and AAA, especially when there just isn't anyone else really better.

Shane Robinson is not better. Maybe he is my Pelfrey for this year, or my Fryer for this year (I have to throw a fit about *somebody*), but I just don't see the value in having him around. I would rather see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS than see some horrific platoon between Schafer and Robinson. Robinson is 30 and in 452 MLB plate appearances has a .612 OPS and actually only 7 stolen bases. He also has over 1100 plate appearances in AAA . . . and a .708 OPS there and still only 39 steals, most of which were pre-2011. And he strangely doesn't really have a L/R split at all like one might expect. 

Schafer has been barely good beyond AA and last year with the Twins. Neither Schafer nor Robinson have any upside remaining. Schafer couples OF coverage defense with really good speed and stolen bases. 

 

Hicks did improve some last year. The biggest bit of weirdness really was the lack of power. But his entire career has been like that in the minors--he basically doesn't get it until the second year at his level. Well he had a very nice (not great) AA season and then two MLB seasons. I am very willing to start him out with the Twins at the bottom of the lineup with some significant platooning with Schafer. 

Shane Wahl

Posted

And I am odd about catcher bats until AA. I still have Turner as the top-rated catching prospect of course. I also like the idea of Berrios-Turner working really extensively together. 

 

Of course, the idea of trading Suzuki is immensely appealing. They should have just paid him more money for one more year so he would be easier to trade. I am really not a huge fan of the guy. The bat explosion (for him) was remarkable, but that defense is still overrated. 

 

I have been wrong about Turner (and Taylor Rogers, but not Eades!). I do like a lot of Chattanooga time for him though.

lightfoot789

Posted

What will be the rotation in Chattonooga?  Start of Season - Everyone has an idea about the bats, but what about the arms?  Do any of them have a chance to be a surprise honorable mention next 13?

  Rotation       ------       Bullpen

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Shane Wahl

Posted

That is a good question. The bullpen is stocked with Burdi, Z. Jones, Peterson, Salcedo, and Van Steensel. 

 

Berrios is the no. 1. Brett Lee should be the no. 2 (let's see how that plays out). It's possible that the Twins push Alex Wimmers and Matt Summers back into the starting role. After that. who knows?

nater79a

Posted

Just my opinion, but I bet Rosario starts at Rochester making room for Harrison at AA.

 

As far as the Chattanooga rotation...lots of candidates. Lee, Wimmers, Berrios, Dean, Adam and maybe either a Duffey or Rogers (depending on the squeeze at AAA).

 

I think Wheeler starts with the Red Wings...promoted him for a game last year already.

Shane Wahl

Posted

I say it's almost 50% likely that they hold Walker back in Fort Myers to start the year. I wouldn't agree with that move, but whatever.

I do think there is room on the roster to work everybody in for Chatty. Buxton (CF), Polanco (SS), Sano (3B), Walker (RF), Rosario (LF), Kepler (1B), Harrison (DH), Turner ©, Michael (2B). Dalton Hicks gets time at 1B and DH, Harrison gets LF and 1B time, Kepler OF time, Rosario some time at 2B still, etc. The other position players are . . . Matt Koch, maybe Michael Gonzales (AAA?), and a couple others (I imagine Kvasnicka and Rodriguez move to AAA).

 

The rotation looks like Berrios, Lee, and Wimmers for sure. 

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