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Struggles at the Plate: Carlos Correa's Slow Start in 2025


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The Minnesota Twins are off to a 9-16 start. The team's hitting has been pretty close to non-existent in the first 25 games. They have been able to see guys like Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall slug the ball all over the ballpark. Both Keaschall and Buxton have a slugging percentage over .450. The Twins' renewed effort to steal bases has been a pleasant surprise. Although the Twins sit in the bottom half of the league in steals, they are almost 25% of the way there to last year's total.

While Keaschall and Buxton have been good at taking good at-bats and setting the tone for other Twins hitters, it's too bad they can't hit in every spot of the order. Coming into Thursday's game against the Chicago white Sox, the Twins ranked in the bottom half in batting average (.216), runs (85), and hitting with runners in scoring position (.216), which this number will be lower because the Twins finished Thursday's game going 0-8. A big reason has been that Carlos Correa's bat must have gotten lost down in Florida at their Minor League camp when the team headed north.

Correa is off to one of the worst starts of his career with a batting average of .167 and splits that look like .222/.274/.496. Those numbers are the third lowest in all of baseball with players who have recorded 80+ at-bats. He has primarily hit out of the fifth spot all year, so I don't think it's a lineup spot issue.

Correa has seen his Exit Velocity at its lowest it's been his whole career at 87.8, couple that with his lowest Max EV. since 2020 at 110.1, to me it looks like he's just missing pitches down and in and pitches in the zone. His barrel percentage is a pitiful 4.4%. One thing I have noticed is that his quality of contact has been more towards topping the ball; his numbers suggest that 44.1% of his swings are on top of the ball, and put that with a 2.9% solid contact rate means he's not seeing the ball well and is resulting to him grounding into the second most double plays (6) so far this year.

I haven't heard of him making any significant batting changes or mechanical issues, but it's clear that he's missing balls that are in the zone and whiffing at balls down and in. Correa says he feels good and that it's not an injury issue, he's just getting unlucky with the harder hit balls, and that he's not too far off from breaking loose. Right now, Correa is in the 74th percentile in Whiff% and 84th percentile in K%, but as you can see from the charts below, a lot of his misses have come in the strike zone. 

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I haven't heard of him making any significant batting changes or mechanical issues, but it's clear that he's missing balls that are in the zone and whiffing at balls down and in. Correa says he feels good and that it's not an injury issue, he's just getting unlucky with the harder hit balls, and that he's not too far off from breaking loose.

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Carlos Correa is expected to remain the Twins' primary shortstop. Carlos Correa is expected to remain the Twins' primary shortstop due to the team's current injury situation and the lack of a Minor League shortstop prospect ready for immediate Major League impact. With Willi Castro just landing on the IL, the Twins are thin at middle infielders. Brooks Lee will likely have to play third until Royce Lewis comes back, and newly acquired Jonah Bride has never played shortstop.

Correa signed a six-year, $200 million contract in 2023, and his 2025 annual salary is $36 million, resulting in a total payroll salary of $37.33 million for this season. That also might be another reason why the Twins are reluctant to make a move. He has shown that he hasn't lost much on the defensive side, already tracking down some in-between hits that any other normal shortstop wouldn't have made a play on, essentially giving the Twins the defensive skills that they don't have with anyone else.

Another possibility would be for the Twins to move him further down in the lineup and shift players like Harrison Bader, Brooks Lee, or Ty France up to the five-hole. The Twins need to desperately get his bat going, especially when Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis come off the injured list. It would be ideal for the Twins to have all hands on deck. Can Correa get going and save his season at the plate?  

6 Comments


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bean5302

Posted

Correa struggled with hitting way too many grounders in 2023, and it seems like he's back into that mode again right now. As far as the hard hit rates and exit velocities, he's been mostly okay. There was a relatively small rough patch in mid-April, but otherwise his average EVs have been around 90mph with plenty of 100+mph balls coming off his bat. The sample sizes are just awfully small.

Correa's bat speed is down quite a bit on the low end of his swings, but the highest end looks normal. That might correspond to struggles mid-month or the wrist bothering him. Pitchers are focusing HARD on the down and away location of the plate, and Correa is topping and missing balls down there way too much. If he can't him 'em, he needs to lay off them or make an adjustment.

As a veteran who has been vocal about effort, Correa has put a spotlight on himself. It's time to suck it up, and do what he needs to do. If that means putting his emotions aside to play smarter at the plate or go on the IL because of the wrist or whatever, he needs to get it done sooner than later.

twinfan

Posted

I said earlier that I am convinced that he is not healthy enough to hit well. I also believe that we have all over-estimated this team. I also don't think that France, Julien, Lee or even Bader are really much better. All are .240 hitters with less solid  contact.

laloesch

Posted

Is it really an injury issue (Finger, Foot, Oblique, back, hamstrings, etc......picking from the list of past injuries in his time with the Twins) or that Correa is just a really, REALLY streaky hitter..... kinda like Buxton? 

I think the crutch a lot of fans rely on when explaining these offensive woes is the ever / forever injury bug explanation.  Is it really injury or just a really bad offensive streak?  If it is indeed another injury bug, when do the Twins realize that Correa like Buxton are not truly full-time players and more like 1/2 - 2/3 season players and plan accordingly? 

The problem is that he's making 30+ million a year to be a double play / strikeout machine, sub .200 hitter, a month into the season.  And this is not the first time he's done this.  They've got another guy in the lineup that often goes on prolonged dry spells and his last name starts with B, also making 15 million a year.  That's crippling for a mid to small sized market team that doesn't want to spend the money to go find more consistent hitters to place around him in the order.  

This is why some Twins fans did not want any part of signing Correa to a mega deal.  The risk is just too great given his injury history and now apparent pattern of repeated offensive droughts (which I think none of us were expecting).  When he's on he's great, and his defense is always very good, but man when he's not hitting he's a blackhole in the lineup.  Makes us appreciate what the team had when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were in the lineup everyday.

T.O.

Posted

On 4/25/2025 at 11:35 AM, laloesch said:

This is why some Twins fans did not want any part of signing Correa to a mega deal.  The risk is just too great given his injury history and now apparent pattern of repeated offensive droughts (which I think none of us were expecting).  When he's on he's great, and his defense is always very good, but man when he's not hitting he's a blackhole in the lineup.  Makes us appreciate what the team had when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were in the lineup everyday.

I was sorry to see him go in 22 but was totally OK with the Twins not pursuing him. I was surprised when they signed him after two teams backed out of signing him due to concerns about his health. Brilliant move by the Twins. The money could have been used on 3 or 4 good players. Now the organization and the fans pay the price.

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