OK, first off, yes I am old school.  I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players.  How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance???  And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!!

I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong.  even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics.

But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner.

YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better?  You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs.

First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites.

Wallner?  oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+.

CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right????  NO!!

This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB?  lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!!  SO now  you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate.  but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th.

Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on.  Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google).  So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot.  So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties.  But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score.  again only 4.48% scoring probability.

SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play).

What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers?

Margot = .244 avg  .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+.   SO not overly good.

Wallner = .274 avg  .401 OBP  .935 OPS  with a 161 WRC+.  Basically pretty darn good!!!

Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!!

need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher.   Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS.

in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th).

That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out..  (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run  41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect).

Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings.

It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch.

Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.