rdehring

Interesting read, Seth. Add me to those who are excited for this year's Hot Stove League to begin. Would be fine penciling Dobnak into the #5 slot as long as there was some competition for that spot. Don't know what to think about Thorpe and Smeltzer. Liked both a lot in 2019, not so much last summer. Ok to bring back, but need more competition for the #5 slot and depth. Could come from one of the younger prospects, a AAAA pitcher or two, and possibly a veteran reclamation project like Hill last year. Heck, who knows it could be Hill for the right dollars. A lot of people are saying most teams lost north of $100M last year. Doubt the Twins lost that much, but expect it was closer to $100M than break-even. So we don't know what type of budget the FO is going to be working with, especially with no one knowing if fans will be back and how many? Will they have +/-$5M to work with, $10M or more? Doubt there will be the $30M needed to go after Bauer. The pitcher I would be most interested in is on your list but not one of your targets, Odorizzi. Would be very comfortable with him back as our #3 or #4. Fill out the rotation with Dobber and the staff should again be a strong part of the 2021 Twins. That's assuming there is a season in 2021.

A first example that dollars are going to be at a premium in 2020. Personally, I expect the 2020 budget to be down at least 10% and if it continues to appear there will be no fans to start the season, perhaps as much as 25% lower. Good news is that most teams will be in the same spot, making cheaper one year contracts available for lots of players.

Certainly keep him around until spring to see if the Thorpe of 2019 returns. On the other hand, should 40-man roster spots be at a premium, I can see him being amongst the first to be moved off the roster. What none of us knows is whether or not there was a reason for last summer's poor performances. Was there some type of injury he was pitching thru?

No specific questions, Seth. But have a feeling this kid just might be one of those top pitching prospects that develops into a player like the Indians seem to have several of debuting each year. Won't be able to watch at 11:30, assume can do so later tonight.

Love it when Seth gets credit for something minor league related that he didn't write. With that said, must agree with your grades, David, although I would have give Kirilloff a straight A and eliminate the minus. I don't have a clue what the Twins will do with Rosario over the winter, or Sano for that matter. But I do expect to see Kirilloff on their opening day roster even if sharing time in left while splitting time at first with the odd man out that day's DH.

I find the criticism about the Twins losing Hendriks, Anderson, Curtiss and Slegers interesting. But what I have either never or almost never seen is a discussion of the situation the Twins faced when they made that decision. In most cases, it was fall with the Rule 5 draft approaching. I no longer have the data readily available as to who was added when Anderson was traded. But had they kept Anderson, they most certainly would have lost someone else. Yes, it stings when someone like Hendriks or Anderson takes that next step and becomes one of the better pitchers in the game. But making those decisions must be put into context with what the situation was at the time. Much more difficult than looking at it years later.

I had also asked that question, Doc, when the initial list came out.

Add me to the list of those who really appreciated this article and the work you put forth, thanks Nick. I question whether the budget may actually see a bigger cut than 10%, perhaps as much as 20-25% if there is a strong possibility that it will again be a season without fans. With that said, I would cut ties with Romo and bring back May. Yes, a few dollars (or million) more, but would work to find them elsewhere.

Thanks, Seth. Always like this guy, we will see within a week or so what they do.

Dollars are going to be at a premium in 2021 with their budget going down. So I bring back Adrianza for a salary similar to last year. It was $1,500,000, wasn't it? The second option for infield backup will be from the minors and signing some AAAA vet with some major league experience. Also shouldn't be a need for the utility guy to play any first base as that will be taken by either Rooker or Kirilloff.

Seth, do you know anything about the 18 year old pitcher the Twins signed a week ago, Eduardo Soriano? I can't find anything, other than a tennis player somewhere with the same name.

When I read the headline, Cody, was hoping that your report would include information of who is doing what down at the Instructional camp. Unfortunately, it is a recap of who some of the Twins top prospects are, or should be. I would be ecstatic to hear some actual news. Something like there is a sign that Cavaco or Javier, two of the Twins most expensive signings over the past 5-6 years, is showing something on the field after their disastrous performances of the past. Would love to hear if Balazovic is doing something better than last time out over a year ago, something that gives us hope he can join the Twins by late next year? It shouldn't just be the teams we are playing that have an exciting young starter on the hill, should it? After having missed all of 2020, don't know how anyone can rank the Top prospects. Talk about them and discuss where they were and what they need to accomplish, certainly. But we really don't have a clue who has improved. I for one cannot tell you how badly I am looking for some first hand reports...damn, its been too bloody long.

What a tough situation management is in beginning with no idea how many fans will be allowed to attend games, if any? Have to believe their budget is going to be much lower than 2020, especially if the 30 teams did lose $3.0 billion as I read in the Strib this morning. With that said, will be interesting how they deal with all the above in arbitration. Also will be interesting how the arbitrators will rule. Will they take into consideration the uncertainties facing the game? Would think they should, but does the CBA allow for it or more likely silent. Would love to see them extend Duffey and Buxton. Just don't know how much Rogers was affected by his role as player rep?

A little off topic, John, but does anyone know anything about the 18-year old pitcher the Twins signed the other day...Eduardo Soriano? Have searched and can find nothing, zip. Means he is probably foreign.

Yes, no, I don't know. I guess it depends on what they can get. As the Maeda deal showed us, they may be capable of getting a very good player back who fills another need for a championship team. It is also possible that the Twins and everyone else will overlook his performance from 2020 as so many players didn't perform well in this whacky season. Why do people keep referring to the bad Ortiz trade. If memory serves, he was cut loose by the Twins, not traded. After a winter of no one coming up with an offer, he finally got the call from Boston late in the offseason. Or was it after spring training had started? After not receiving a lot of attention, Ortiz took a big chip on his shoulder to Boston and proved all of baseball wrong, not just the Twins. I have thought Kirilloff can be a very good first baseman since seeing him play there down in Cedar Rapids.

Romo, Avila and Gonzalez...go. Adrianza, resign if it can be done for a cost similar to 2020. Try to resign both Clippard and May with Clippard on a deal similar to 2020 and May up to $5M per for a couple years. Try to get Odorizzi on a one or two year deal for up to five million less than last year's QO. Resign Hill if you can do it on a one year deal for a couple million max. Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one.

Took another look at that roster this morning, Seth. Surprised that Ober isn't on the list. Is he dealing with an injury?

I'm not going to quibble with anyone taking the time to research every inning this year, Parker, but my memory tells me there were more than just one. As for the one you showed, that was the beginning of the end for Dobnak. I seem to recall several runs scored on weak ground balls. Were they all in that same disastrous inning? Some may have been on their crazy shifts which also drive me nuts. I expect their advanced data tells them the shifts work more than not...but not real certain that holds when you have a ground ball machine like Dobnak on the mound. But varying from the data sheet would require the manager to make a decision against what I suspect the organization has rules that are cast in stone.

What a great trade, Seth, one in which both sides got something they needed. When you add the favorable contract, the Twins came out better than they could have hoped for. Only question I have, will Maeda be as good in 2021 assuming a full 162 game season? I expect he will as he fits the true definition of a 'pitcher.'

Interesting topic that drove me over the edge this year. Have no problem with their bringing the infield in with a runner on third with less than two outs and no on else on base. But with one out, why not play the middle infield deep and go for the inning ending double play. Too often saw them not do that and the runner scored on a dribbler thru the infield.

The problem isn't only the bad call, rather, how it affects the outcome of the game. A bad call that doesn't change an at bat or lead to a run scored or not scored is a bad call that you can live with. But, a bad call making the count 0-2 rather than 1-1 in a close game with no outs and a runner on first can be huge. The difference this year is that I remember way to many bad calls that led to shutting down an inning the Twins were looking at potentially scoring. For that reason, I believe MLB must go to robo umps as soon as 2022...assuming there is a 2022. Hopefully, there are enough Donaldson's out there so that the players union will push for this change in the next CBA.

Thanks, Seth. Unfortunately some of us don't subscribe to the Athletic and can't read beyond the opening paragraph.

Count me among those, John, who see the payroll down to the $100M to $110M range. With that restriction, I don't see them signing a big name starter. Also isn't room for Rosario or Cruz, unless Cruz is willing to come back for a max of $10M. I see Adrianza returning, provided he is willing to do so for a salary similar to last year or a $2M max. The other utility player after a month of seasoning at Rochester will be Lewis, playing 4-5 games a week at second, short, third and center. I bring back one of May or Clippard and resign Rogers as I think some of his problems this year were related to COVID and his role as player rep. Yes, that already puts me over $110M and I don't have a #4 starter. I see them getting that player via trade. Considering the numbers you presented above, the player I trade is Sano. Also would consider signing Rosario and then trading him along with a mid-prospect for a better prospect who is close. Expect the payroll will be around $110M on opening day and we will see two of Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach or Lewis on the opening day roster with Lewis joining them after playing a lot of second, short, third and center at Rochester for a month or so, becoming the new Marwin Gonzalez until he settles into his own spot in future years. On the COVID front, John, I don't see a lot of people in the stands on opening day unless both a vaccine and treatment is readily available to the masses. [And that likelihood is getting smaller every day.] Maybe a couple thousand, but nothing approaching full attendance. And with that uncertainty, the Twins and most clubs are going to be cutting their payrolls substantially, So maybe there is hope that most of the numbers you and others are presenting will be much higher than needed to sign someone like say, Odorizzi.

Sorry for the confusion, Seth. Assume the cuts I referred to were the ones you saw a few weeks ago. Yesterday was the first day I saw the post about the cuts.

Thanks, Seth. See almost all of the names of players we would consider prime prospects. What are the dates for this instructional League? Will they be playing any games against other teams, say the Red Sox who are down the street? After today's cuts, I am guessing this represents about a third of their minor league guys...maybe 40% if you don't include the guys who were in St. Paul all summer. Are there league limitations on how many they can have in this camp? Will there be another camp later in fall for some of those not included in this group?