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yarnivek1972

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Everything posted by yarnivek1972

  1. yarnivek1972
    The team needed an upgrade at catcher before Castro’s injury. Garver may be serviceable, but I don’t think anyone feels he is even a league average receiver or that he will hit enough to overcome that. If Rortvedt doesn’t pan out, the Twins catcher “of the future” is likely not yet in the organization.
  2. yarnivek1972
    You can’t contend for a World Series if you can’t a) get to the playoffs, which the Twins are at less than 25% to do b )win if you do get in, which the Twins haven’t done in 16 years. They are also ill equipped to do so this year. Teams that win in the playoffs have multiple consistent HR threats, a legitimate ace starter, a lockdown bullpen. The Twins have all but three of those.
  3. yarnivek1972
    I seem to recall a lot of LF doinks over the fence for Mauer. That may not be “power”, but they still count as homeruns.
  4. yarnivek1972
    Subjectivity is at the core of baseball. The strike zone, for example, is subjective. The balk rule, is subjective. Et cetrra.
  5. yarnivek1972
    Lynn’s career walk rate is 3.5 per 9. Is that somehow less of a concern than May’s 3.6? If Lynn is still throwing walking practice when May is ready, Trevor should absolutely replace him. I don’t have any data, but I’ll bet someone a lot smarter than me can look it up. How likelly is it that Lynn’s approach was getting National League hitters to swing at pitches that AL hitters, more patient by virtue of the DH, aren’t? It certainly shouldn’t account for a doubling of his walk rate, but I bet it’s a factor. The Twins need to find out if Trevor May is part of this team’s future. And if so, in what role. As far as I am concerned, this is a lost season. Too many players underperforming or (like Sano, Polanco, et al) not performing at all. Time to move on IMO. Yes, I am aware if the standings. I’m also aware that third place in a division where the leader is sub .500 means your team is bad and your division stinks.
  6. yarnivek1972
    I think you (and others) need to stop acting like this is a team that can contend for a title. Sure, they can probably stay within spitting distance of the lead in the pathetic AL Central, but they are completely overmatched against the elite teams in the league. Point being, sending Buxton down isn’t going to help the Twins win in 2018 and likely won’t help them beyond that. If he can’t figure it out with the MLB staff the Twins either need to get different MLB staff or cut bait with Byron Buxton.
  7. yarnivek1972
    Lynn’s 7.0 BB per 9 IP is less than ideal for the rotation as well. Only 8 starts? That’s 1/4 of the season. A lot of people like to use the NFL season analogy. If your QB had 3 interceptions per game for the first 4 weeks, he would no longer be your QB. If the Twins had put a league average starter in those turns, they would probably have a couple more wins. Of course, there is no evidence such a starter was available, but that is on Falvine.
  8. yarnivek1972
    I think it’s time to stop thinking about acquiring players to help in 2018. That ship has sailed and hit an iceburg IMO. If they want to try to get help for 2019 and beyond, fine. But this team doesn’t have the talent to contend with the elite teams of the league.
  9. yarnivek1972
    Buxton is beyond AAA. He either has to sink or swim at the MLB level. It’s all on him and whether or not he is actually good enough to consistently hit MLB pitching.
  10. yarnivek1972
    I don’t know how wise it would be to DFA Petit. No idea if he is optionable, but it certainly makes good sense to have an injury replacement for the infield already on the 40 man, besides Gordon, who the FO obviously feels is not close.
  11. yarnivek1972
    The problem with a “pretend” injury is that the player has to sign off on it too, if I am not mistaken. What’s the upside of going on the DL for Lynn? His only chance at cashing in this offseason is taking his turn every 5 days and doing well at the MLB level. Going on the DL and “rehabbing” isn’t going to help at all, even if he does well down there.
  12. yarnivek1972
    One problem: Sano and Buxton aren’t yet even close to Mauer and Morneau at their peak. And that’s my point. If you trade away your prospects for a guy 3 years from FA, you are in win now mode. And if Sano and Buxton both don’t become stars, you aren’t going to win now anyway.
  13. yarnivek1972
    Hughes out. Lynn out. Ervin and someone else in. May perhaps. Perhaps a rotating AAA reliever. Unless Lynn starts throwing strikes I would say his spot on the team is very much in jeopardy. Let’s put it this way. It isn’t a decision most contending teams would think twice about. If the Twins think twice, it will show that Jim Pohlad is more in control than we perhaps thought.
  14. yarnivek1972
    But is a 3.6 WAR catcher going to be enough if the Twins don’t get 5-6 WAR each out of Sano and Buxton? I don’t think it is. Too many bigger holes.
  15. yarnivek1972
    Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available. My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.
  16. yarnivek1972
    I guess the question is what do you want from your catcher? If you are looking for a guy like Jason Castro, there are probably 5 sitting in AAA right now. Defensive minded catchers that provide little offense aren’t hard to find. Castro was a plus offense last year, but it was a career offensive year for him. His bat isn’t why he was signed. It sounds like some of you are trying to make up the offense that the Twins aren’t getting from Sano and Buxton by trading for a catcher who is a much greater offensive threat than Castro. I’m not sure that’s a wise approach. If this team doesn’t get plus offense from Sano and Buxton, there won’t be October baseball in Minnesota in the forseeable future IMO. I’m pretty sure Falvine understands that. And also IMO trading the farm for a guy that won’t push them over the top would be a huge mistake. If Sano and Buxton were healthy and this team was cruising along with a .600 winning pct, I’d say sure. The reality is this team has a lot of holes. I’m not at all sure that acquiring a catcher is the best way to utilize the minor league talent the franchise has.
  17. yarnivek1972
    File this away for tomorrow’s game: Angel Hernandez is at first base tonight. That means he’ll be behind the plate tomorrow. Yippe!
  18. yarnivek1972
    They apparently proved it enough to satisfy whatever appeals process there is outlined in the CBA.
  19. yarnivek1972
    Polanco has a career bWAR of 3.1. Escobar’s is 5.0 in roughly 3 times as many PA. Polanco is a better player, period. Better defensively and I still am not convinced Escobar will maintain a 135 OPS+. As good as he was last year, he still posted only a 101. The main reason I like Polanco is that his contact approach balances a lineup full of guys that swing and miss a lot. I think the Twins need that in their lineup.
  20. yarnivek1972
    Kepler’s career BABIP is under .270 in well over 1000 PA. At some point, that becomes less about “bad luck” and more about defenses able to project his tendencies. That is the next stage of his development IMO. To be a guy that truly is dangerous to all fields in any situation. That will increase his BABIP and the rest of the numbers will jump as a result. On a related note, I suspect we may see a drifting down of the average BABIP as shifting and defensive analytics come even more into play than they already do. “Historically” it has been about .300. Is there data that that is what it actually was last year? Last 5? It would be interesting to see the trend over the last 5-10 years.
  21. yarnivek1972
    Which one will play more games at his number one position this year? Now there’s an interesting question to ponder. If Castro is out a couple months, he’ll probably end up catching about 80-85 games. Will Sano play 85 at 3b this year? Before you answer, you should know that he did NOT last year...
  22. yarnivek1972
    I’ll say 100%. They will either play in light rain or wait it out.
  23. yarnivek1972
    Steady, though not terribly hard, rain falling. Postponement of the postponement?
  24. yarnivek1972
    Doug Mientkiewicz should have. Rod Carew probably did. Paul Molitor late in his Brewer days probably did.
  25. yarnivek1972
    Hopefully, they'll have a home game on Columbus Day...
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