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Respy

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Everything posted by Respy

  1. Respy
    I see this as insurance for Santana getting surgery. Not much to see here. I think their main move is still pending.
  2. Respy
    I agree, but I'm guessing 2 years / $33M with third year vesting option.
  3. Respy
    I'm really hoping Gonsalves has a high floor and can stick around for quite a while in the middle-back end of the rotation. It's hard to expect a lot more than that from a pitcher who relies on control and some deception, and doesn't have the most filthy or overpowering of stuff. People have comp'd Gonsalves to Jaime Garcia, but I just don't see it. Garcia has a tight windup and release, and throws some loopy stuff. Gonsalves is long and loose and slings the ball, more like a poor-man's Chris Sale. But my favorite comp is to Jeremy Hellickson. Though Hellickson is a righty, watch the two pitching and you'll see that they have the same delivery and same approach to getting batters out. They have very similar minor league numbers. Hellickson was very successful his first two years in the majors, though his K/9 numbers dropped drastically in the majors from the minors. I think to be honest we should expect the same thing from Gonsalves. But if Gonsalves can stay healthy and pitch to an ERA in the mid to high 3's, he could be a big help to the team for at least a few years.
  4. Respy
    Alex Cobb, Friday, Feb 16th, 11am. Followed by celebratory lunch buffets at Pizza Ranch.
  5. Respy
    https://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/7/17/15980078/phillies-trade-talk-is-there-any-scenario-in-which-trading-aaron-nola-makes-sense "Phillies trade talk: Is there any scenario in which trading Aaron Nola makes sense?"
  6. Respy
    Out of the list, I see Melotakis as the biggest potential to make an impact, IF he can get his fastball velocity back up this year. The last 1.5 years I don't know if he's still been recovering, or tentative to throw hard, or the coaches changed his mechanics. If he can be that power lefty with FB sitting at 95-97, and has a good hard curveball, that's very playable in the majors. This is a make-or-break year for him (and of course the other players on your list, as well).
  7. Respy
    I'm extremely optimistic that most of 11-15 either slid a bit or was NR last year. If anyone thought we had a good or above average farm system last year, then it should be clear we have a very good one now.
  8. Respy
    This is interesting, and I wouldn't want to see a high o-swing% from the Twins, but more context is required here. Generally, the Twins have a low o-swing%, because they have a low swing%. Grossman does a good job of watching balls go by, but also has a much higher tendency to watch strikes go by. The Twins had the second lowest z-swing% (61.6%) in the MLB, the percentage of strikes swung at. And, as a result, the Twins therefore had the highest Zone% (48.6%), the % of pitches thrown to them in the zone in the MLB. I'd say the more important stat here is still an old-fashioned, BB/K, which the Twins did fairly well at 0.44 (7th in MLB).
  9. Respy
    Looking at his previous years' stats, I would have projected him at an average of 2.5-3 WAR/year the next 5 years, which is right on board with your ZiPS projection of 2.8. Let's be generous and say he gets 3 WAR/year. At current league value of ~$10M/WAR, 15 WAR over 5 years = $150M. There's always some risk there, especially for a small-mid market team like the Twins. I presume they'll have insurance for bad injuries, but they need to be cautious of faster regression, when putting more than 1/4 of the payroll into one player. I'd say a realistic contract for the Twins is 5 years/$130M. If he wants 6 years, no problem, but then only bump it to $140M, an extra $10M for the 1 WAR he might get you when he is 36. I might be willing to go 6 years/$150, if there's options with buyouts on the last 1-2 years. Or, as I've always been a fan of, go a bit lower on the contract, and build in some hefty bonuses for 180 or 200 IP, all-star appearances, cy youngs, playoff games won, world series championships, etc.
  10. Respy
    The Twins and Indians should lead the division this year. I think the Royals will be awful. The Tigers might manage to be average. I'd say watch out for the White Sox in the 2nd half of the year, especially after they bring up Kopech and Jiménez. Moncada has the chance to be a monster this year. Giolito is very good. Rodon should be good when he returns if he's healthy.
  11. Respy
    My magic 8-ball says....Cobb.
  12. Respy
    I would presume that increasing the strike zone size would result in more strikeouts? I know that lowering the mound has been discussed. I personally would support this, especially and only if it also were to decrease injury risk for pitchers. Reference: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080323210203.htm
  13. Respy
    The only way I see longer relief appearances actually being implementable would be by limiting the roster size of the pitching staff. Less pitchers = more innings per pitcher and less mix-and-matching. But, I don't see this ever happening. If anything, I've heard ramblings of expanding the total roster size to 26, which would make the problem worse. I generally agree with most of Riverbrian's thoughts. People will watch a 2.5-3 hour sport if it's interesting enough. Or, at least they'll think to flip back to it near the end of the game. Let's find ways to make the game action more interesting for the casual fan. Analytics and new color commentators are a good way to do that.
  14. Respy
    I also looked into this as soon as I saw the news. Susac seems to me to profile very similarly to Mitch Garver, maybe slightly more power, slightly worse play calling at catcher, slightly worse plate discipline. Same age, same build, similar MiLB numbers. Except, Garver has options and Susac, first called up at age 24, appears to be out of options. I'd pass.
  15. Respy
    I say yes, but only if it gives us something we don't already have. RH 1B/DH type? Gotta give Vargas his last shot this year. RH infielder? Escobar is fine. RH outfielder who is not a good outfielder? Grossman. I was all for Austin Jackson, but he already signed with the Giants. Chris Young might have fit the mold a couple years ago, but he hit lefties poorly last year, and was a below-average defender. I do not like Jose Bautista. His only appeal is that he hits well at Target Field. They should at least think about JD Martinez and Todd Frazier, but JD has priced himself out of our market (and he's a poor defender) and Frazier will probably only fit our team while Sano is potentially suspended. They should also look at Eduardo Nunez if they think Sano might be out for a while. With the current players available, I'd hold on RH bats and wait an see how things are going, particularly with Vargas, Grossman, Byungho Park, Garver, closer to the trade deadline.
  16. Respy

    Robo Umps

    Respy replied to Platoon's topic in Other Baseball

    I think, at least initially, the noticeable effect would be null. There would still be umps behind the plate, and I bet that the umps will still be calling the balls and strikes, the only difference being that the ball/strike information is fed to them via earpiece. Personally, I feel as long as there's still an umpire standing there making the calls, then it doesn't matter to me. Might as well get it right and take away any subtle bias there may be.
  17. Respy
    This is the correct move and I don't think any teams need to carry offensive logos. Logos and branding are so fluid, it should not be that hard. The Chief Wahoo logo is quite dated anyways. Hopefully they move in a completely different direction, or just go with the simple 'C.' Teams names are a much harder thing to change on the other hand. While eventually they should probably not be the Indians, it is a much larger franchise disruption to rename a historical team. When change is hard, baby steps are better than nothing.
  18. Respy
    Do you have WAR numbers for career with the Twins? For example, Eddie Guardado's career WAR while playing for the Twins is 8.6, exactly the same as Perkins. In that regard, I would assume Perkins needs to be in the Twins HOF. Second question: How much consideration of performance for other teams should go into Twins HOF nomination? I was under the presumption that Twins HOF was for contributions to the Twins only. For example, do you differentiate: Player A: 15 WAR with Twins as only team in short-ish career. Player B: 15 WAR with Twins, and 15 WAR with other teams. Player C: 15 WAR with Twins, and 50 WAR with other teams.
  19. Respy
    It's really hard to do a full historical analysis of payoff of free agent signings, specifically because of the ever-increasing contracts, and the constantly-fluctuating average $/WAR in the league. Even just in 3 years, from 2015 to estimated 2018, free agent contract $/WAR has increased almost 30%, which would be the equivalent of saying Ervin Santana's original contract of $13.5M/year would have been close to $17.5M/year in today's money. Greg Maddux - 5 years $28 million ($5.6M/year). In 1993, that was a lot of money. 1992 NL MVP Barry Bonds made 'only' $4.5M his first year in San Francisco in 1993. Two-time World Series hero Kirby Puckett made 'only' $5.3M in 1993. The thing is, in today's analytical world, these contracts are heavily calculated on many factors. Any team paying any contract is hoping and expecting to get their money back, and then some. (Except maybe for the Bobby Bonilla contract, oops). And often it's not directly attributable to WAR or other statistics (e.g. Castro making the pitching staff better, Gimenez or Dozier's veteran presence). Reference: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/
  20. Respy
    Well, I was trying to avoid adding to the gross overuse of the borderline curse-phrase: "Pitch-to-contact" In past years I would cringe of pitch-to-contact when we had Willingham or Colabello in the outfield. But now, it makes more sense (from starting pitchers at least).
  21. Respy
    Well, I think the plan B is signing the likes of Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta. Signing nobody else would be plan C, which I might add is the 'typical' Twins offseason. Personally I think they will end up signing Cobb, as the Twins already spent quite a bit on Addison Reed, the Twins observed Cobb pitching very well against them last year, Cobb will come at the biggest discount because of missed time in 2015-2016, and he doesn't allow many walks which pairs best with the Twins good defense. Is it not the move I would make, but it's the move I expect.
  22. Respy
    In this case I trust the scouts know what they're doing. Hopefully it works out well for everyone except the Marlins.
  23. Respy
    Amazing pitcher with a fire in his belly, yet a certain humbleness and respect for the game. Several of my favorite Twins memories were with Johan on the mound, including the 17-strikeout game in 2007. Absolutely dominant on many occasions.
  24. Respy
    Perhaps Joe is too old to make the switch at this point, and perhaps it's blasphemic of me to say this after Joe nearly won a gold glove at first base, but perhaps Joe could still move to third base? I know when he was moving out from catcher, there was talk of him at third, first, or corner outfield. I always thought he had the right skill set to play third, but maybe not at age 35-36. We'll see how 2017 goes, but I'll be surprised if the Twins can keep him as an everyday first baseman, especially with Sano on the roster and Rooker potentially coming soon.
  25. Respy
    I'm delighted by this news and I had hoped it was coming after there was some chatter of this idea toward the end of last season when Morneau didn't have any more offers as a player. Ultimately disappointing for him to have to retire when he still felt he could play, but he had a good career with some elite seasons in Minnesota. One of my favorite Twins players and a very down-to-earth guy. Whenever I see Minnie and Paul shaking hands after a homerun, I imagine that's Morneau and Mauer near the on-deck circle. Since Morneau was a quiet guy, there's not going to be much about him for off-the-field stories, but I will share one humorous moment I experienced with him. It was spring training (around 2007?) in Fort Myers, and I went down early in the day near the batting cages below Hammond stadium to watch some players hitting off the tee (that day it was a young, clean-shaven Trevor Plouffe if I recall). I walked over to a nearby practice field, where a few dozen others were standing, and Mauer was working with Gardenhire on pulling balls to deep right-center field (!). Right after they finished, Gardy walked by on the path out of the stadium with Morneau, and Gardy shouted "Hey everyone! I'm giving Morny the day off! Therefore, he has plenty of time to sign autographs for EVERYONE!" Much swarming around the gentle giant ensued. I got my navy blue Morneau jersey I was wearing at the time autographed.
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