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Respy

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Everything posted by Respy

  1. Regarding Buxton's catch, can someone explain to me how it had an 86% hit probability, but a 65% catch percentage instead of ~14% (100-86=14)?
  2. Possibly Molitor did not want Enns starting today. Possibly Molitor was playing the splits on Manny Pina in a crucial situation: .347 this year against lefties, .259 this year against righties. Possibly Enns was on a low pitch limit we don't know about. Possibly Molitor knew Enns was a bit taxed after running way too hard for that infield hit. Thankfully the bullpen was fairly rested so they could manage the 6.2 innings!
  3. Ah yes. But , at this point, would you rather take Santiago over the alternatives? ERA ~ 8 since the beginning of May.
  4. 08August2017 Twins leadoff hitter hits Twins' first grand slam of the yearRed Wings leadoff hitter hits team's first grand slam since opening day
  5. This just in: I just realized Mejia already went on the DL. So, Gee likely to get a start or two, and we have a glut of decent AAA starters who can fill in as long reliever for Gee. Enns, Jorge (AA), and Turley would be the leading options as they're currently on the 40-man.
  6. Let's see if they can hold on until September 1. With the roster expansion, they have several decent bullpen arms (Baxendale, Rucinski, Wimmers, Melotakis) as well as AAA starters which can come out of the MLB bullpen, depending on who's put on the 40-man roster. Honestly if Gee can pitch decently, I'm not too concerned about our bullpen the rest of the year. I'm fairly concerned about our starting rotation. If Mejia goes on the DL, and Colon and Gibson stink it up, we're screwed.
  7. Several will uproar about the Twins unloading Garcia and Kintzler now that the Twins are 1.5 back in the Wild Card. I say: The Twins unloaded Garcia and Kintzler and are still only 1.5 back in the Wild Card; that's great! If we can stay in the thick of things and also have those extra pitching prospects for the future, then things worked out just dandy.
  8. I don't believe I've ever seen someone with a clean steal of home with the pitcher looking directly at and focusing on the runner, and pitching out of the stretch? Someone else correct me if I'm wrong? I don't think he could have made it cleanly. Even if he's half way down the line, a perfect sprint to home would be about 2-2.5 seconds, based on 28 feet/second sprint speed plus acceleration. A delivery to home out of the stretch takes about 1-1.5 seconds? Any decent throw and he'd be toast.
  9. That was a killer for the Twins last year too, at .239 w/RISP (well, and their pitching). They just need their pitching and hitting to line up for a little bit and extend this 2-game winning streak to get back near the top of the Wild card or division races.
  10. Wow Enns looks very, very similar to Gonsalves in that video.
  11. Well honestly, they just need to get one win out of this series. With Berrios and Santana going tomorrow and Wednesday, I'm hopeful.
  12. I think this is a good move. Jaime has posted a positive WAR in every season except his rookie season. Jaime is 31 and his fastball is being clocked his highest ever this year (granted, only 91.5 mph). I guarantee the Twins prospect will be a player we are quite familiar with, but it's not going to be an A-grade or even B-grade prospect. I'd expect it's someone between 10-25 on the Twins top prospect list.
  13. I wonder if some fans are leaning towards sell, largely because of how they feel about our veteran players. Many Twins fans are eager to dump the likes of Dozier, Mauer, and Kintzler because they don't bring a whole lot of excitement. And, Ervin Santana will probably never be worth more. But overall, I think the point is that if we dump one or several of these players, that might be enough to push the Twins over the cliff and drop out of the playoff race, which is not worth it. I'm also a 'stand pat or slight lean towards buy.'
  14. Love this game. Never played online, though.
  15. Judge used the whole field more easily than anyone I've ever seen in the homerun derby. Really impressive. And honestly, I'm glad Sano wasn't being too violent or over-exerting himself, and still managed to reach the finals.
  16. Kintzler has really been bringing that running fastball lately. Some have said this year that the Target Field radar seems a tad juiced, but I'd say that Kintzler's fastball last night looked legit 95-96 and was badly tying up batters. Personally, I'd attribute his lack of strikeouts partly due to his heavy reliance on the fastball (81% this year, 88% last year) and partly due to his high delivery which is not particularly deceptive. But, still induces weak contact due to good location and excellent movement. I always like to compare Kintzler to Jim Johnson, other notable sinkerball closer. His career K/9 is 6.84, while Kintzler's is 6.35. Both are low, but Johnson's uses his similar 94 mph fastball 73% of the time in his career.
  17. Some matchups to watch today: Ervin Santana: 10-4, 2.80 ERA (4th in AL)Eric Hosmer has a 1.168 OPS lifetime against Santana in 32 plate appearances.The rest of the KC lineup has hit a combined 0.221 AVG and 0.626 OPS against Santana Jason Vargas: 11-3, 2.29 ERA (1st in AL)Mauer is 14 for 36 (.389) against Vargas lifetime with only 2 walks and 2 strikeouts.Vargas is a lefty, and Eduardo Escobar has a cool .974 OPS versus lefties this year. Twins X-Factor: Miguel Sano. Since sitting two consecutive games last week, Sano is 1 for 18 with 8 strikeouts. He needs to turn it around for the Twins offense to be productive, especially against lefties.Royals X-Factor: Jason Vargas. He had one bad outing against the Yankees in May, but has allowed 3 ER or less in all of his other 14 starts. He also has a MLB-best 1.92 ERA at home. He is likely to play in his first All-Star game this season at age 34. Can the Twins get to him tonight? My magic 8-ball says....Twins win 4-1.http://home.ncscredit.com/sites/default/files/Blog%20Images/Magic%208%20Ball.jpg
  18. Not quick enough on those inside pitches.
  19. I just had to whip out my spreadsheet. I wanted to know which clubs were fielding the fastest and slowest teams overall, which needs this Statcast data, and not stolen base data. I calculated the average speed of a team, based on weighting each player's speed by the number of plate appearances made in 2017 as of 27June2017. Only players on the Statcast pages were included. 1. Padres (27.77 mph) 2. Marlins (27.76 mph) 3. Rays (27.58 mph) 4. Twins (27.55 mph) 5. Royals (27.41 mph) 6. Pirates (27.35 mph) 7. Diamondbacks (27.24 mph) 8. Yankees (27.23 mph) 9. Reds (27.21 mph) 10. Rockies (27.15 mph) 11. Rangers (27.14 mph) 12. Cubs (27.13 mph) 12. Nationals (27.13 mph) 14. Giants (27.05 mph) 15. Phillies (27.03 mph) 15. Red Sox (27.03 mph) 17. Dodgers (27.01 mph) 17. Mariners (27.01 mph) 19. Indians (26.98 mph) 19. White Sox (26.98 mph) 21. Astros (26.94 mph) 21. Brewers (26.94 mph) 23. Cardinals (26.9 mph) 24. Braves (26.86 mph) 25. Tigers (26.78 mph) 26. Athletics (26.71 mph) 27. Angels (26.7 mph) 28. Mets (26.67 mph) 29. Orioles (26.48 mph) 30. Blue Jays (26.12 mph) Average = 27.06 mph
  20. I think other stats would disagree. I agree his fastball velocity is not down, but he has no control of it. His BB/9 of 5.04 is by far a career worst. His BABIP of .299 is right at league average, so nothing suggests here that he's being unlucky. I would not say that his half season's 30 IP is a small sample size for a relief pitcher, considering that he only pitched 46.0 and 33.2 the last two years. I think if he can immediately turn around his command, he can be a serviceable pitcher. If not, he needs to go.
  21. Good coverage. I agree that Hildenberger has a low likelihood of being elite, but shows good signs of being successful. A low-90's side-armer needs good control, which he has with only 26 walks in 171 2/3 MiLB innings. He needs to keep the ball in the ballpark, which I hadn't realized previously how much of an extreme ground ball pitcher he is: 2.37 GO/AO, and only 4 homeruns allowed in 171 2/3 MiLB innings! I think his floor is well above Slama. Slama was not a groundball pitcher (1.07 GO/AO) and walked way too many batters (158 walks in 344 1/3 MiLB innings). I would bet that Hildenberger is most likely to be decent or good. My expected stat comps are Jim Johnson or Matt Belisle (Colorado version). Hildy's seemingly got better control than Neshek or Ziegler, but those two guys are closer to the 'elite' status due to higher strikeout numbers, lower BAA, lower ERA. So my most unanswered question will be: Can Hildenberger punch out major league batters close to or better than 1/inning at the MLB level? My gut says no, but he's got to keep his velocity up above 90mph and have good control of those off-speed pitches. I predict he has a serviceable but not great career (2-6 years) in the MLB bullpen.
  22. Thanks for the info and looking forward to Enlow's professional debut!
  23. It was an interesting article, though honestly very few surprises for the Twins or the league. Two things I noticed though: 1) I thought Kepler was faster. Obviously not Buxton fast, but I thought Kepler would be a tier above Polanco/Escobar/Rosario. 2) Buxton 2017 is 29.9 ft/sec, 2016 was 30.7 ft/sec (higher than Billy Hamilton at 30.2 ft/sec!). I'd imagine Buxton's max running speed was essentially the same both seasons. That shows me that there's still a fair amount of error in how they are measuring this.
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