Respy

I'm going to go ahead and agree with most posters above regarding the 'hindsight is 20/20' and such. I'll add that one thing to always keep in mind (and my pessimistic nature at its best), is we need to realize that in many instances of these players, if they stayed in the Minnesota system, they very likely would not have performed as well. Many of these players will struggle or underperform in one system, then do much better in a different system. Whether it's because of a fire/chip on their shoulder, or a certain coach or player/mentor got through to them, we'll never know. Sometimes a player turns out to be so great, we have to admit that the Twins likely messed up either in their development or in getting rid of them too early (e.g. David Ortiz). In most other cases, the players may have had toxic personalities and I say 'good riddance,' or they just needed an opportunity elsewhere to which I say 'best of luck to you.'

You are correct, thank you for the clarification. We shall see how this offseason pans out...

Kinsler is nearly an identical comparison. When he was signed in the 2012-2013 offseason ($75M/5), he was turning 31 (Dozier will be turning 32), he had an average WAR of 4.1 (Dozier has averaged 4.2), and just came off of a career-worst year in 2012 when he had 2.0 WAR and a .749 OPS (Dozier on pace for 2.7 WAR with .733 OPS). The biggest question here is what kind of free agent market it will be this winter, which nobody knows. Almost certainly if it was like last offseason, Dozier would not be getting $50M. If it's anything close to a normal offseason likely previous years, I think he receives $50M+.

I value your opinion about this possibility and politely disagree about the likelihood of Dozier receiving $50M in free agency. Perhaps you would like to suggest someone in the Brewers farm system for which you would be willing to trade Brian Dozier, based on your valuation of him?

It's a very fair question. I think value-wise, it's fair for both teams. But, I think the big thing here is that the Cardinals have some real good (and young) talent in the rotation. I personally wouldn't bring in Gibson to replace Flaherty or Gant, at the cost of a top catching prospect. And they have Wacha waiting on the DL too. One could argue they have 6 starters equal to or better than Gibson.

Getting back on track, I personally don't know much about the Brewers prospects. Let's presume (at least this is my presumption) that the Twins hang onto Dozier and give him a qualifying offer, and he turns it down, and the Twins receive a competitive balance pick for the 2019 draft. So, the Twins would want to receive the value of a late-first-round-pick or better for a Dozier trade before July 31. Doing a minimal amount of research, let's look at the current Team Prospect Top 30 rankings of last year's competitive balance picks: Rays: Rasmussen (did not sign) Reds: Downs (Current Reds #6 prospect) Athletics: Merrell (Current Athletics # 13) Brewers: Lutz (Current Brewers # 8) Twins: Rooker (Current Twins # 7) Marlins: Miller (Current Marlins # 10) Small sample size, but that averages to 8.8 +/- 2.8. So, looking at the Brewers top prospects, Hiura or any of their top prospects are likely out of the question. If they can get a prospect they like around Milwaukee's #6-10, plus two near #30ish, I'd likewise pull the trigger.

Of course it doesn't work that way. Teams want to profit, so if they expect a player to earn $30M dollar value, they'll want to pay $15-$20M. The $/WAR number is not irrelevant though, as that's a calculated number (albeit some variations year-to-year) to show how much it has cost salary-wise to get WAR out of a player. I think the point is more that if a player has 2.7 WAR on an awful year (classified as a 'solid starter' by FanGraphs), and has averaged 4.2 WAR/year (All-Star by FanGraphs), then they are worth a qualifying offer. Especially one of high character like Brian Dozier. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Dozier is having a terrible year this year and yet is on pace for 2.7 WAR. At ~$10M/WAR, that's a value of $27M. If the 2018-2019 qualifying offer is about $18M-$20M, I think they absolutely extend a qualifying offer to him, especially given the value of the compensation pick they would receive if Dozier turns down the qualifying offer (which I think he might do if he heats up at all the rest of the season). I think this is especially important with the Twins possibly not having Escobar next year, questions around Sano, Polanco only playing 1/2 year this year, Nick Gordon struggling at AAA, and Royce Lewis still being at least a couple years away. Dozier is literally the only given on the middle/left side of the infield.

(Entry photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) Fogo de Chão, a Brazilian steakhouse with all-you-can-eat tableside-carved meats, was attributed by Eduardo Escobar before this season as a big reason for his success in 2017, according to an interview by the Star Tribune. Reportedly, Eduardo Escobar is unwilling to be traded to any team whose home ballpark is not located near a Fogo de Chão. Namely, of the teams still in playoff contention this year, this will entirely rule out St. Louis (Cardinals), Cleveland (Indians), and Milwaukee (Brewers). It will likely also rule out the Los Angeles Angels, whose stadium is in Anaheim, 2 hours away from the nearest Fogo de Chão. We reached out to Escobar, and he stated “Hey man, I really like Fogo de Chão. No Fogo de Chão would be no bueno. Big meat equals big hits.” Of all the divisions in baseball, only the NL West has Fogo de Chão locations in every city, meaning likely suitors for Escobar could be the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, or Giants (who have a 90%, 45%, and 12% chance of reaching the playoffs in 2018, respectively, according to Fangraphs as of July 5th). On the year, Escobar, a utility infielder who has mostly played third base this year, is hitting .277 (.867 OPS) with 13 homeruns and 50 RBI. Eduardo Escobar will be a Free Agent at the end of the 2018 season, after earning $4.85M this season with the struggling Minnesota Twins.

All this, plus we need to win more 1-run ballgames. And we need to win a majority of our 10 remaining games against Cleveland.

I'm most intrigued by the 18/5 walk/strikeout ratio. Mental-noted.

During the final game of the last homestand against the Rangers, after the Twins dropped the first three games of the series to the Rangers, many fans noticed a change to the familiar Minnie and Paul celebration sign in center field. As an apparent gesture of the Twins performance this year, likely in particular that of the offense lately, Minnie and Paul had paper bags placed over their heads. Minnie and Paul are well-known for their friendly handshake over the Mississippi River. Minnesota Twins Senior Director of Ballpark Development and Planning Dan Starkey said, “We felt this was the correct gesture to ensure that Twins fans have the right mentality when coming to Target Field to cheer on the Twins this year.” He added, “We are considering making additional changes to the famous Minnie and Paul sign. For example, after Joe Mauer leaves the Twins or retires, we’re considering changing the handshake to some kind of fist bump to appeal to current players and millennial fans.” We asked Starkey if they had any additional plans around Target Field, other than with Minnie and Paul, to commemorate the failing Twins season. “Well if the Twins are truly going to continue being a bad team this year, why not embrace that and find ways to enjoy it? When the Twins are officially eliminated from playoff contention, we are planning on hosting a paper bag giveaway sponsored by Cub Foods so every fan can watch the game from the comfort and security of a paper bag over their head with some eye holes poked into it. We’ll even have mini paper bags for the kids,” Starkey said.

The Twins are at 3% odds right now. They were at 4% yesterday and 5% the day before that. They were at 4% as of August 5 last year and still made the playoffs. We needs a few weeks yet to see.

I agree with many of the commenters here. I also think they will not trade him this early. The Twins will listen, but need to hold until mid-to-late next month when we see for sure if we're out of playoff contention. I suspect by then, Escobar will have cooled off considerably and not have very much trade value any more. So I'd predict we keep him.

Houston already has 5 elite starters, barring an injury.

We certainly don't have the farm system to afford Syndergaard, and DeGrom is 30 and only controllable through 2020. If the Twins were in solid contention this year, DeGrom would be worth considering. If the Twins are looking to 2019 and beyond, DeGrom is not a piece of that puzzle. Syndergaard is younger and has way more potential, so I think the Mets will hold him. DeGrom has as high of a value now as he'll ever have and he's 30. I think they only mentioned Syndergaard because now teams can approach them about Syndergaard offering Prospect Package X, the Mets will say 'No thanks, but how about Prospect Package X for DeGrom' and I think they'll get more in return this way. DeGrom will likely go to the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, or Yankees and I predict he'll go to the Yankees.

Correction: Jim Johnson had 51 and 50 saves in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

It feels like the Twins are gradually losing control. So far haunted by a major-league worst 3-13 record in 1-run games, the Twins have fallen to 7 games under .500, and 7.5 games back of the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Cleveland helped their own cause last week, winning 7 games in a row against the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers. But, there’s still a glimmer of hope. After two tough road series coming up in Chicago (Cubs) and Milwaukee (Brewers), the Twins have 14 consecutive games against league-worst Baltimore Orioles, second-to-league-worst Kansas City Royals, and the weak (though improving) Tampa Bay Rays. This includes the all-star break (July 16-19) for some much-needed rest, and the likely return of Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton. After that, the Twins play 10 games against the Indians July 30 through August 30. Those 10 games will likely make or break the Twins season (if they can hold it together until then). The Twins really need to pick up wins in both of the final two games of this series against the struggling White Sox. Series Recap: The White Sox (27-51, 4th in AL Central) are hosting the Twins (34-41, 2nd in AL Central) for game 2 of a 3-game series. The Twins dropped the first game of the series to the White Sox 8-4. Avisail Garcia hit his first homerun since returning from the disabled list. Twins hit 1.000 with runners in scoring position (but only had 1 runner in scoring position the whole game). The Twins did not have a single base runner against the White Sox bullpen (2 2/3 innings). 1. Notable Baseball Birthdays Wayne Terwilliger (93): “Twig” played 9 seasons in the majors primarily as a second baseman. He later had a long coaching career including first base coach for both Twins Championship teams in 1987 and 1991, and 12 seasons managing in the minors (1224-1089 record).Jim Edmonds (48): Center fielder who played mostly for the Angels and Cardinals, racked up a solid 60 career WAR, went to 4 all-star games, and received 8 gold gloves. Likely not a Hall of Famer but an impressive career.Jim Johnson (35): Still pitching with the Angels, led the league with 51 and 51 saves in 2012 and 2013, respectively, while pitching for the Orioles.Luis Rodriguez (38): Played 3 seasons for the Twins (2005-2007) playing second and third base.Jeff Conine (52): Known as “Mr. Marlin”, was third in 1993 NL ROY voting after being selected by the Florida Marlins in the expansion draft (from the Royals). Represented the Marlins in the 1994 and 1995 All-Star games.Gus Zernial (1923-2011): Feared slugger for the White Sox and Philadelphia/Kansas City Athletics averaged 27.5 homeruns per year from 1950-1957.Rico Petrocelli (75): Known as a good defensive shortstop for the Red Sox over a 13-year career, hit 40 homeruns in 1969. Also had his major league debut against the Twins, September 21st, 1963. (Aside: This was also the same game that Harmon Killebrew hit three homeruns, the only time he did that in his career).1b. On This Day in History… Torii Hunter hit two homeruns against the Brewers on June 27, 2015. It was Torii Hunter’s 18th and final multi-homer game of his career, and also gave him 202 homeruns in a Twins uniform, passing Gary Gaetti for seventh all-time on the Twins list. Video: https://www.mlb.com/video/hunter-goes-yard-twice/c-203994683?tid=63371196 2. Starting Pitchers and Key Matchups Kyle Gibson (RHP, Minnesota): 2-5 in 15 starts, 3.25 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 6-2 with 2.42 ERA career vs. White SoxJose Abreu vs. Gibson: 6 for 26 (.214 BA) with 1 homerun and only 2 walks.Avisail Garcia vs. Gibson: 3 for 17 (.176 BA) with 4 strikeouts. James Shields (RHP, White Sox): 2-9 in 16 starts, 4.59 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 8-10 with 4.54 ERA career vs. TwinsBrian Dozier vs. Shields: 13 for 42 (.310 BA) with 4 homeruns, 7 walks, 8 K’s.Logan Morrison vs. Shields: 8 for 27 (.296 BA) with 1 homerun.Max Kepler vs. Shields: 2 for 16 (.125 BA) with 5 K’s.3. Our Twins: Who’s Hot and Cold? Hotter than a Casserole Hotdish Eddie Rosario: 29 for 87 (.333 BA, 1.097 OPS) with 8 HR and 17 RBI in June.Mitch Garver: 5 for 10 (.500 BA) last 7 daysTrevor Hildenberger: 0 runs allowed last 15 appearancesFernando Rodney: Converted 15 straight save chancesZach Duke: 1.04 ERA in JuneTaylor Rodgers: 1.93 ERA in June Colder than Embarrass Joe Mauer: 3 for 19 (.158 BA) with 0 walks last 7 daysEduardo Escobar: 2 for 18 (.111 BA) with 0 RBI last 7 daysLogan Morrison: 3 for 20 (.150 BA) last 7 daysMax Kepler: 3 for 19 (.158 BA) last 7 days 4. OBP (One Bad Pun) Since having our third kid, my wife has been getting cabin fever. Additionally, she has never traveled outside of the US before, so we’ve passed a few ideas back and forth like travelling to the Cayman Islands, New Zealand, or perhaps even an African safari. I proposed going to the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania to watch the hippopotami. She said that would be a bit too boring. I replied that if she’s just trying to get out of the house and away from the kids for a while, she was being a bit hippocritical. 5. Magic 8-Ball (2018 Prediction Rate: 1-1) Shake 1: “It is certain” Shake 2: “It is certain” My Magic 8-ball says… Twins win today. --------------------------------- Lineups: TWINS 1. [L] Joe Mauer (1B) 2. Eduardo Escobar (3B) 3. [L] Eddie Rosario (LF) 4. [R] Brian Dozier (2B) 5. [L] Max Kepler (CF) 6. Robbie Grossman (DH) 7. [L] Jake Cave (RF) 8. Ehire Adrianza (SS) 9. [R] Bobby Wilson ( C) P. Kyle Gibson (RHP) White Sox 1. Yoan Moncada (2B) 2. Yolmer Sanchez (3B) 3. [R] Jose Abreu (1B) 4. [L] Daniel Palka (DH) 5. [R] Avisail Garcia (RF) 6. Leury Garcia (LF) 7. [R] Tim Anderson (SS) 8. [L] Omar Narvaez ( C) 9. [L] Charlie Tilson (CF) P. James Shields (RHP) Forecast for Chicago, IL: 69 degrees F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph, Precipitation 10%

*Satire

Yesterday a picture was leaked of a napkin left at an Applebees in Santa Monica, California, last month while the Twins were visiting the Los Angeles Angels. The napkin was left there inadvertently by, reportedly, Twins Major League Coach Jeff Pickler who was dining at the restaurant with other members of the Twins coaching staff. The napkin had pictured, among other things, sketches of proposed fielding alignments. Some of the alignments were titled “Ryan Suter,” “Mexico,” and “Mauer.” Jeff Pickler was hired during the 2016-2017 offseason by the Minnesota Twins as a coach to help with various aspects of the Twins at the major league level, but most notably by studying tapes and determining outfielder positioning for a talented trio which included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler to start the season. The Applebees server, who requested to be left anonymous, stated that Pickler “Seemed like a nice guy…” but was “a crappy tipper” and “deserves to have his strategies exposed.” One anonymous bench coach for a Major League Baseball team commented, “These are ****ing stupid. Except for the Mauer one. We’ll probably use that one.” Shown below are graphics for the various shifts sketched on the discovered napkin: "Ryan Suter" "Sieve" "T-ball" "Mauer" "Mexico" "Broadcast Interview" "Chris Davis" "Batman" Twins coach Jeff Pickler could not be reached for comment for this article.

Byron Buxton practicing his catching in front of a US border wall prototype in June, 2018 SAN DIEGO – After suffering for months with severe migraines and with a history of concussions, Byron Buxton announced on Twitter (@OfficialBuck103) yesterday that he’s officially stepping away from Major League Baseball. “We’ll miss his presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He’s definitely one of the best center fielders of all time. We wish him the best in his future endeavors,” said Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer. Buxton later announced that he’s been working out at a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facility in San Diego, California where he’s training to catch bags of drugs, typically heroin, being thrown over the border walls from Mexico to the United States. When asked about the new work he’s preparing for, Buxton said “At least I don’t need to hit anymore.” He added, “I was born to climb walls and catch. And this way, I can also do it while proudly serving my country.” But, is catching baggies of drugs going to be as easy as catching baseballs? Buxton stated, “The tricky part is that all of the bags can come in different sizes and weights. But if it fits in my glove, I’m going to catch it. Just as long as the border wall is not 55 or 60 feet tall like I’ve heard some people are proposing.” Carla Provost, Acting Chief for the U.S. Border Patrol division of the DHS, said that they have had their eye on Buxton for a while, and contacted him when he went on the disabled list in April for migraines. “Last year we really dove into the analytics of border security. We have this new metric, abbreviated DRS, which stands for Drug Rings Squandered. We expect that Byron will step right in and lead the division in DRS.” We caught up with Border Patrol Assistant Chief, Percy Woolbright, to ask about Buxton. “He’ll be a natural at this. He’s really talented. He can cover a lot of wall, too, because I saw his sprint speed has been measured at over 30 feet per second. Also, Byron can come to work every day knowing that the weather along the US-Mexico border is much more predictable than in Minnesota. And if Florida ever decides to secede from the Union like it did in 1861, we’ll set up a new border wall along the US and Florida, and Byron can work close to his family in Georgia.” One might assume that because of the orientation of catching fly balls against the fence in baseball, he should technically be positioned on the south (foreign) side of the wall to catch drugs being catapulted from Mexico. Commenting on this, Woolbright said, “Umm…Oops.”

I say Kepler or Berrios, if they can, because those are the only two young players with seemingly no risk tied to them. Kepler is improving but still underperforming so I'd start there and try to strike a deal.

Both Granite and Wade need to shake off the rust before they get called up. I presume that if one of them gets hot, and LaMarre really struggles, we will see the move made. Alternatively, with Buxton on the DL, I hope Kepler continues to get some starts in CF. He has looked a bit uncomfortable there but has the skills for it and needs the reps.

Small sample size. Can't really say anything about it unless there's more data on the players tested. I'd presume he's just an outlier because there are ~1000 players and there will be outliers. According to MLB: "Our Joint Drug Program, which is negotiated with the Players Association, is independently administered and has random testing procedures in place with no regard for a player's birthplace, age, or any other factor. Every aspect of the test selection process is randomized and de-identified, and every player is included each time random selection is conducted. This results in some players being tested more often than others, but, as a whole, MLB players are tested more frequently than any athletes in professional sports." Source: http://www.tbo.com/blogs/rays/2018/05/30/mlb-disputes-rays-carlos-gomezs-drug-testing-complaint-says-process-is-random/

Berrios has been good but he's scheduled to face the Indians lineup twice in June. Eddie Rosario is on a hot streak and notoriously plays well mid-summer. I think he'll stay hot and take the Twins' lone spot as a reserve player. Regarding the number of outfielders in the AL, for sure Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and J.D. Martinez are going to be locks. There are several players who have better OPS than Rosario but I don't think will make the All Star game because of players ahead of them on the same team: Brantley (Cleveland): 5th in OPS, but Kluber, Lindor, and Ramirez are aheadBenintendi (Boston): 6th in OPS, but Betts, Martinez, Sale, and maybe Kimbrel are aheadHaniger (Seattle): 7th in OPS, but I'd assume Segura and Paxton get the nod first, and Seattle has not been good enough to merit 3 players in the All Star game.Castellanos (Detroit): 8th in OPS, but Candelario has a higher WAR and OPS, and I'm guessing the Tigers only get 1 rep.Rosario (Twins): 9th in OPSSpringer (Astros): 10th in OPS, but Altuve, Correa, Verlander, and Cole all have higher WAR this season.