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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be. We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.
  2. nicksaviking
    I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray. Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.
  3. nicksaviking
    I've previously said that corner bats are easy to find in free agency, but I see MLBTR is predicting large multi year deals for both Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, with both guys getting about $15M per. Both are similar .800+ish OPS corner guys with suspect defense, with Castellanos' defense being notoriously bad. I'd tend to think MLBTR is overestimating the two free agent's values, but I guess we'll see.
  4. nicksaviking
    I'm not itching for Gibson back, but I suspect there's a proximity bias here. Most likely you'd feel the same about everyone ranked below Gibson had you watched them pitch for the Twins the last half decade as well.
  5. nicksaviking
    Great thought, I always liked those pitchers too, and I really liked that they could/would pitch for so long. Just about all of them had grey hair on their final baseball card! I might think the unpredictability of the pitch perhaps goes against today's game, as analytics drive instead towards certainty. But forever is a long time, I'll bet it comes back into fashion at some point.
  6. nicksaviking
    I was going to say the opposite thinking Cash did so much with so much less, but you're right, as much as I dislike the Yankees, that record with all those injuries was pretty impressive.
  7. nicksaviking
    I don't think anyone, including the team want ONLY reclamation projects. But if this team has 8 roster spots to fill it would be both unrealistic and ill advised to fill them all with guys making $10M per year. Besides, those types of players aren't going to accept a MiLB assignment or a simple spring training invite, and the team isn't likely to eat such a contract in May should the player not produce as expected. You need to sign several guys to compete in camp and provide depth should Plan A go awry, but those guys need to have a negligible contract so it's not illogical to wash your hands of them at any point.
  8. nicksaviking
    I like the idea, but it would be a significant change in the game in that the catcher would no longer be calling pitches as obviously the batter could hear him talking. But really, if teams were OK with breaking the mold, I'd think a pitching coach would more often than not be the ideal person to make the calls anyway. I might expect a small possibility of a drastic swing away from offense in the game as unlike the catcher, the pitching coach or whomever is calling pitches, would have real time analytics at his fingertips. I'd be interested in seeing how it plays out though.
  9. nicksaviking
    You’re still two starters and swing man short of a full roster.
  10. nicksaviking
    Manfred has previously threatened to take away draft picks if organizations partake in shenanigans. I then think it's only fair that Houston is prohibited from making any offers to any free agents tied to draft pick compensation until this investigation clears up. Which I then hope is approximately April.
  11. nicksaviking
    I really do like the blending of new school tech with old school garbage can banging communication. It's a truly great compromise to appease the purists who only like sign stealing via dodgy "fan" in the outfield with binoculars and a walkie-talkie. But I hope the MLB takes away all their draft picks and caps their international free agent budget at $50. I don't even care if the Astros are guilty, I hope they do it just because.
  12. nicksaviking
    No flyers? If the Astros didn't take any "flyers" their team wouldn't have Robinson Chirnos, Wade Miley, Will Harris or Colin McHugh. The Nationals wouldn't have Matt Adams, Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick or Kurt Suzuki. You're not going to build a team without some low cost veterans. Every team does it, not just teams with Terry Ryan as a GM.
  13. nicksaviking
    To me it really feels like Lindor will be moved. I hope he doesn't though, I think Cleveland will get a significantly lesser haul if they hold on to him and trade him with only one year of control left instead.
  14. nicksaviking
    He kind of came out of nowhere, I think it's a bit premature to call him really good. And how do you know they passed? He was traded for a top 60 prospect and a SS at that. If the Twins are going to be trading Royce Lewis, I'd want it to be for a better pitcher than Zac Gallan
  15. nicksaviking
    I'm never big on sacrificing offense for defense. I know, that's not terribly popular. I really liked the regular offensive lineup last year as it didn't have any holes. I don't really want a glove only SS, even as a stop gap. Another unpopular take coming: If I was actively going to improve the defense, I'd move Sano and Polanco to the right side, and use everyone's favorite rookie 2B as trade bait in a package for a starting pitcher or to fill the newly created holes on the left side of the infield.
  16. nicksaviking
    Excellent write up and encouraging data. More efficient pitch usage sounds much easier to remedy then say control or velocity.
  17. nicksaviking
    This is an exciting blueprint, though I kind of think there won't be nearly the bullpen revamp as suggested. The Twins were fully able to snag multiple of what appeared to be high end, yet affordable relievers last year and then they didn't. And while most of the fans (me included) bemoaned coming up empty, the team was pretty astute in their inaction. Even though most of us were upset with the pen by the middle of the year, 90% of the free agent relievers turned out to be busts, and I don't think 90% is hyperbolic. The Yankees were about the only team that didn't eat dirt on free agent relievers last year. So I'd guess that's how things go with building a pen now until league-wide relievers start showing more consistency, which is hard, because if they were able to do that they'd probably be starters.
  18. nicksaviking
    “Front Page: Bumgarner V. Wheeler: Who Should the Twins Pursue?” Yes. Geez, you guys are slow today.
  19. nicksaviking
    Agreed. Do I think there is collusion? Almost certainly, but this is just words taken out of context. Not that I blame the MLBPA too much, they're going to need all the help they can get to get back even an inch from the owners. I'm just not a fan of augmenting villainy. There are enough bad deeds to pin on the owners, we don't need to try to create new ones.
  20. nicksaviking
    Ah, about a decade an a half late in joining the baseball analytics movement but at the forefront of the business analytics movement! We're starting to catch up around here!
  21. nicksaviking
    Yeah, and even if they did have serious interest, I doubt Gonsalves would have been more than a 3rd or more likely 4th piece. And that's if they were even actually interested in dealing Syndergaard in the first place; at this point I think it was a major feint and adding pitching was their plan from the get go.
  22. nicksaviking
    But there are only two free agent aces on the market, neither likely to be wearing a Twins uniform.
  23. nicksaviking
    I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat. But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains. And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.
  24. nicksaviking
    That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal. But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B. Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?
  25. nicksaviking
    Is it stated somewhere that players must be on the 25-man if they are one of the team's 25 best players? I'm just wondering, aside from any PR situations, why teams can't just say "Um, duh. We want you for seven years, not six years." Where are the grievances stemming from, as far as I know it's written into the CBA for teams to do exactly that. The CBA needs to be way more player friendly, but I don't see the legal issue with this. Also, on things to fix with the CBA, I'd start negotiations with the issues that more directly impact the non-top draft picks than the ones that mostly affect guys who already got +3M signing bonuses.
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