Rosterman

I worked in football tracking, graphing plays throughout the first half of the game, then trying to predict some moves in the second half. Keeping a file to look at again if you play that team. In baseball, some people have always tried to steal signs. I thought it got pretty difficult when a team had decided to use up to five "tells" in a game to reflect what the sign structure wa for that inning. A sign that the sign following will tell you when the next sign is comng (first, second or third). You always had the guy in centerfield with the hat or glasses. Always the coach on the top of the dugout steps. Looking for that one-up easy that might make a game easier. Now you have after-the-game video of every pitch and every swing and people who have a job charting the whole mess and figuring out odds of throw and swing. That it was reduced to banging on a trashcan lid is beyond my comprehension. But, yes...it has to be addressed. People will push for advantage, especially when money and fame and glory is involved, or so it seems. Like someone said, we reward people who have served out suspensions, giving them a second (and maybe even third) chance to continue to score a payday. The question always is, does the organization get to suffer when a play goes under suspension, yes. We saw it with the Twins at the tail end of 2019. Should a team suffer that they don't have their act together monitoring their players? I would say yes. With so many people eligible and wanting, one mistake might be enoygh to be a career ender. You learn by punishent, or suppose we are told, and having to make changes to your life and fighting the stigma for the rest of your life.

The Twins are getting themselves into a unique position where they now have the infield, catching, and two outfield positions set up for the next four years at least. Now they have to judge those under contract as being with the team for the length of the contract, if they plan on moving any number of players into the fold. Do you need both Kirilloff and Larnach. What about all that infield depth now of Gordon, Lewis, Javier, Keoni amongst others. This is who you trade for extendable rotation arms. But out of the chute at the beginning of the season, those first 39 games before the return of Pineda are important. Not all will be on a five-man rotation, but the Twins need to ee what arm can carry them until Hill returns. They also have the unique opportunity of winning those games and start running away with the division, carefully crafting the bullpen and making using an opener, four inning arm, etc. etc. Sadly I don't see Odorizzi giving us six innings as often as we would like, to start the season. And, hopefully, no injuries. So, yes, the Twins could use another arm. I have faith in Homer Bailey as a fifth starter, but would like to improve on that sooner rather than later.

Patience is the key, and sometimes an organization is more than happy to have a player tread in the minors and age, rather than become a hot young prospect. The question is: do most players have 1-3 very very good years in the scheme of things, maybe 3-5 years of okay ballplay? I always like Trevor May and looks like he may be a possible closer for the Twins. Can he get mean and just throw first pitch (and second pitch) strikes? Regarding Garver, I remember when the discusion was between him and Stu Turner on who would contribute to the Twins first. Kinda like the discussion around Rortvedt and Jeffers now. Taylor Rogers needs to stay in setup, or called in to close sparringly. He is good and would be nice to get that goodness in more games for holding a lead.

So now THE BIG QUESTION! Who leaves the 40-man Roster!

We basically have Gordon to replace Adrianza or Gonzalez in the near future, and any number of other prospects. Of course, the team friendly contracts for Kepler and Polanco and ano also makes them tradable. Interesting that to buy out arbitration and first year of free agency is roughly $10 million a year now. A decent investment to keep young players on the team. The Twins do have lots of OF/1B potential candidates. Like Sano moving over to first, or eventually DH. Even looking at DOnaldson for the long haul, the Twins would need a DH after the next season (possibly the 40-year-old wonder Cruz might hand on for still another campaign). You suddenly see riches in the Twins system. Where do we put Lewis. Will there be room for both Laranach and Kirilloff, not to mention anyone else. They have a very young shortstop behind Javier that they drafted alst year, too. There seems to be okay potential at catcher with Jeffers and Rortvedt in the wings. The biggest question is getting innings and exposure for the rotation. Some power arms, as well as people like Enlow, Sands, Ober, Colina, Barnes, Sammons to go with Duran, Rijo, Balazovic. Some will succeed, after some exposure to the majors. A couple may be bullpen arms. But there is promise in the minors, along with some arms that could surprise in the relief corps. It all depends on how bad you feel you need a veteran presence. Yes, it is wonderful to have a dominant arm in the top of the rotation, a grizzled veteran in the middle of the bullpen, an aging bat on the field roster. Especially if they do act as a pseudo-team leader.

We know what Berrios will make in his arbitration seasons. It is what he could garner as a free agent out of the chute. On the Twins side, it is a gamble that includes an extension or a buyout (and also once you have a player unde contract you have the qualifying ofer to keep them for an additional year, although someone of Berrios age wouldn't take it). Berrios banks that he will be healthy. The Twins never want to overpay on a contract, it seems (look at Kepler, Polanco, Sano...all very team friendly). I also worry about attitude. Remembering the days of Dark Star commenting on the contract the Twins gave Cristian Guzman. "The Twins gave him that much? He TOOK that much" or something along that ilk. Realizing that maybe, just maybe the player might be less motivated to do anything more than show up each season to get paid rather than continue to dream of riches beyond...which sometimes happens in this biz.

A baseball team has two things that drive the acquisition of talent. Money and Prospects. We saw them weak at the Trade Deadline because they wish to hang onto prospects. Still trying to figure out the worth. And, with prospects, those we feel have worth (but are happy to trade away) can also be viewed with similar misgivings by trade partners. To trade for a quality player on another team, you have to be willing to eat salary and fill holes that team has on field or in their system. It is fun to throw away money. Like betting millions on on-line poker that we pay for in pennies. No matter our love for the team, or interest in the players, we are looking at the big picture as a fan, not as ownership or management. They have the big picture. They know more about each and every piece in the system than we can imagine. They know the player depth of every organization, have worked out scenarios for cost of current players vs. the future, and ... well, that is their job. The flipside is that every other team is doing the same thing, going after the same players, working under the same budget restrictions (almost). And everyone wants to win. And to top it off, you have to have organizational discipline and structure. You have to put together a field staff that will work with players. You have to get players that will work with players. And you always have dreams of dollars and cents looming over everything, often buttressed with an agent who cares more about the contract than anything related to baseball. The Twins weren't alone missing out on imapct players in 2020. They do have a team, it looks pretty good on paper. There is some backup depth at every position. I'm sure we would like to see the 5th starter, 7th or 8th bullpen arm, the bench guy, and maybe even a position player repalced by someone of better quality (and expense). And it could be done, throwing dollars to the win (and 4-7 years), or a prospect. Those pesky prospects. If the Twins tie up Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Garver whatever, it starts to change the picture. If they see the need to extend Arraez, Rogers, May, Duffy it frees up more trading pieces in the minors who become moot after 3-5 years anyways repalced by younger and just as promising talents. I see the White Sox adding players, but wonder how they will all play together on the field. In the Twins, I do see a team familiar with each other and coming off a season of team play headed by a solid field staff. I am not disappointed. If a big name wanted to play in Minnesota, they could...sign the dotted line, negotiate a decent price. But between players and agents and big markets and spouses and horse farms and length of contract, it is a total crapshoot. 75-80 days and we all start enjoying "Play Ball" - and it is a long season!

I still don't know how Sano will work out as a fulltime first base guy. Or even splitting the duties with Garver.

I would be more than content on a rotation of Sano, Gonzalez and Garver between first and third. Mitch Garver only played in 93 game last season. 93! and only 73 as catcher (Castro did 72). I doubt Garver will be pushed to 120 or above in 2020. The hope is that Jeffers may be fast tracked and become a aparttime catcher in 2021 with Twins having to move Garver somewhere by 2022 - either at first base of DH depending on what is done with Sano. By then we also will know what we have in Kirilloff, Rooker, Lewis and see if Gordon is still around. Is Garver a safer bet first than behind-the-plate? Can he give us better than adequate defense, but still keep his catching skills top notch? That is the question.

Kepler did minimal play at first in the minors. Now the Twins talk like Kirilloff would be a first baseman in the future. Go figure. Of course, theTwins could still tie-up Buxton AND Rosario in longterm contracts, throwing the outfield prospect to the wind. And Rosario. It seems the Twins would ratehr NOT pay Rosario $8 million plus this year and whatever more it would take to sign the guy longterm. Of course, I think they are seeing that other teams feel the same way, especially when they have to offer something aback to the Twins. Why do some players command BIG money, and other ... just ... don't.

Besides getting on base, you want your leadoff guy to take pitches. 6-7-8-10 out of the chute. Show the batters who follow you what they might expect. See how the ump is going to call the game. Hopefully the second batter is not a free swinger, too. Secondary is speed. But you want the guy to be able to advance on a slow roller and stay out of the double play, make it to third on a clean single, possibly advance on a fly ball. If he can also put pressure on the pitcher as a potential base stealer, that is a bonus. I never liked the idea of a leadoff home run being a plus.

He was the guy to have, especialy with Sano starting the season injured (although Marwin had a horrible April). He seems best playing around the diamond as needed. See him splitting time at first and third mostly, and he could be the 4th outfielder if the Twins do sign someone else for first or third.

Top 20!

The only plus is that the Twins can open the season looking at the future. They don't need five starters every fifth day. And they will be able to get a good hard look at a possible advancement by Dobnak, Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer to be a part of the rotation for most of the season and going into 2021 as being viable starters. If you have real pitching arms in the minors, you need to give them a chance. Otherwise, why draft rotation arms. Just buy them each and every season.

I just wonder how assured we are that Sano will be a decent first baseman. Granted we can have Garver play some there, too...to get him in the lineup. But then where do we put Sano. I do see Sano as the DH of the future. Any move on Donaldson means you feel John can play the third corner for four seasons.

As we saw with Addison Reed, the Twins with these signings won't be afriad to jettison the players if they aren't producing. All depends what Thorpe, Smeltzer and Drobnak can do.

Looking at Seth's list of Top Prospects of the decade got me wondering who the many many promising names were in the system over the last ten seasons. I tend to follow John Sickels' look at prospects. So here is my view of his listed propects of the Past Decade. Mitch Garver and Stu Turner showed up multiple times. Always wondered which of the pair would breakout with the Twins. One ended up with the Reds. Should also note that Wilson Ramos was in the mix in the beginning of the decade. And Josmil Pinto was there, too. Both Ryan Jeffers and Ben Rortvedt are the future. Standout infield prospects were, of course, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. But others appearing multiple times were Chris Parmelee, Lewin Diaz, Travis Harrison, Travis Blankenhorn, Wander Javier, Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker and the most – Nick Gordon. Other promising names were Danny Valencia, Levi Michael, Brian Dozier, Nico Goodrum, Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Amaurys Minier, Jeremaine Palacios, Andrew Bechtold, jose Miranda, Keoni Cavaco, Yunior Severino and Luis Arraez. The decade started with the name of Ben Revere in the outfield. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler were dominate listed top prospects, and with numerous listings the likes of Aaron Kicks, Joe Benson, Oswaldo Arcia, Nate Roberts, Angel Morales, LaMonte Wade, Adam Walker, Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff. Then we have guys like Trevor Larnach, Zack Granite, Gilberto Celestino, Gabriel Maciel, Misael Urbina, Matt Wallner and Luke Raley also making notice. Pitchers getting recognized multiple times are Kyle Gibson, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Billy Bullock, Adrian Salcedo, Carlo Gutierrez, Tom Stuifbergen, Alex Meyer, Tyler Robertson, Alex Wimmers, Manuel Soliman, Zach Littell, Bruster Graterol, Fernando Romero. Nick Burdi, Tyler Jay, Ryan Eades, Jose Berrios, Trevor May, J.T. Chargois, Zack Jones, Michael Tonkin, Lewis Thorpe and Blayne Enlow. But also seeing listings were Ben Tootle, David Bromberg, Matt Bashore, B.J. Hermsen, Anthony Slama, Matt Hauser, Hudson Boyd, Pat Dean, Bruce Pugh, Kane Holbrooks, Liam Hendriks, Jeff Manship, Matthew Summers, Deolis Guerra, Lester Oliveros, Chase de Jong, Gabriel Moya, Felix Jorge, Huascar Yona, Adalberto Mejia, Chih-Wei Hu, Jake Reed, Michael Cederoth, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran, Chris Vallimont, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, Jordan Balazovic, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, D.J. Baxendale, Corey Williams, John Curtsis, Tyler Kinney and Matt Canterino. Lots of intresting names there. What I also found interesting was the number of people NOT CONSIDERED top prospects that did make the Twins in the last decade: Taylor Rogers, Willians Astulido, Dietrich Enns, Andrew Vasquez, Sean Poppen, Cody Stashak, Trevor Hildenberger, Pat Light, Tyler Duffey, Devin Smeltzer, Chris Hermann, Alex Burnett, Luke Hughes, Aaron Slegers, Randy Rosario, Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Waldrop, Rene Tosoni, Jeremy Beresford, Logan Darnell and Rob Delaney. So many names over the decade. Interesting to see the number of people that do make the cut, considered possible future major league talent, and there is a story behind every name that doesn't make it.

Every season you have to add two position players (one parttime) and three pitchers to the mix, which means they are repalcing players leaving. You can supplement that with either a prospect or a free agent. Basically for 2020 the Twins are addint a parttime catcher from outside, a second baeman from inside. They still need to add a rotation arm. They have added at least one bullpen arm and another from within the system is a possibility. Yes, they still need a first baseman but the tandem of Garver/Sano/Gonzales seems workable. Injuries happen, which may allow you to see an outfielder of the future in 2020 like Kirilloff or Larnach (or Rooker/Raley). Hopefully a prospect arm will stick for 2020 (Dobnak or Thorpe). You still have Graterol in the mix. The Twins could conceivably have three arms pitching aprts of 2020 that will carry them towards 2025. Depending on what happens with Sano and Buxton and Berrios, the Twins are pretty set for the next three years at least. If they extend those guys, well beyond. I trust some fine dafting and an overloaded system of prospects to keep the bullpen full of fresh new arms, make a dominant rotation that the Twins will have under control for the next 6-8 seasons, and cover all their on-field position needs. And I don't see them spending the bank on anyone player in the next decade. I doubt that will give Sano $20+ million a year. Berrios might be the closest, but hopes are theyc an tie him up for the next 4-6 years on a reasonable deal, then let him walk if he becaomes really expensive. I believe in the front office. Running a tight economical ship. Making wise signings. The conflict comes that we all feel they should spend the money they have available, no matter the player, just because they can. Is that the right move?

If you got the money to burn and it doesn't cost you top prospects, just players that are still good but in the pecking order for depth, might be a wise move. Hey, if he rebounds, you can still flip him, too, at some point. You need soeone better than Gibson for 2020. You will need someone better than Odorizzi for 2021. One more addition, especially a guy with skills, will still allow you to see a rotation of arms thru a fifth starter spot, working the beginning of the eason in place of Pineda, and still do the same thing in 2021 if one of the arms previewed this season can hold a solid roster spot in 2020. You are just asking to spend a million per start (hopefully) for a guy for the next three years. Better than a million+ for the next 7 years? Bigger question, can you extend Berrios sooner rather than later? Or, maybe, just bring back Francisco Liriano.

I would still like to see a bonifide closer signed.

Will Berrios replicate or be better in 2020? Can Odorizzi do the same. Also, Pineda...missing games on the front end compared to the abck end. Considering the Twins were extremely lucky and pretty much had a five-man rotation. You'd like to think that Dobnak could replicate Gibson's eprformance, if not be better. You would like to think that Thorpe is working his buns off and could replicate Perez, hopefully better. So can we expect 95-100 wins, in a lineup without Cron and Schoop but with more Arraez? The line-up still ahs to score runs. And can an 8-man bullpen give us for the entire season better production without having names like Magill, Parker, Mejia, Moran, Dyson anchoring the backend of games?

The realities of baseball: SUPERSTARS GET BIG BIG MONEY AND CONTRACTS. Also rans are a dime a dozen. Eddie Rosario. Why trade for a guy you might have for one or two years when you can sign someone for one or two years of equal talent. (see Marlins). DUMP SALARY. You can get a bargain, so to speak, in a trade when a team needs to move salary. You suddenly look in the longterm crystal ball and see that you can probably add two or three players to your roster, with comparable strengths, to replace that outrageous salary. For that, you might take a few (no number one) prospects, or a trinket another team wishes to move. Trading Depth. Right now, the Twins probably have a glut of outfielders and shortstops as prospects. (No, considering the current state of the rotation, they have no depth in starting piutcher arms). Of course, that could change dramatically if you longterm Buxton AND Rosario. If you do that, you don't need Kirilloff or Larnach or any number of other guys. You have Polanco at shortstop, so what is the fate of Lewis (position move?) but you still have great depth in Gordon, Javier and Keoni. Keoni is the guy who might make the majors. The other two are organizaiontal depth at the moment. I still feel sad that the Twins opportunity to trade for an impact arm would've ben back in July. They missed out at throwing cash at a roster spot replacement. ure, longterm contracts come with risks. The abckend is that you MIGHT be able to move that contract to another team if the player produces and you don't need them for a competitive run. I still like the idea that you can possibly buy the abckend of a BIG contract these days (like go after Price or perhaps Lester at this point, both contracts that a team would rather shred so the return in prospects may not be hurtful...you can deal from your depth rather than your overall future). Always interesting to see a name like Cave thrown out. Are teams eyeing him as a longterm replacement in the field? Future riches with the bat? He is a reserve outfielder. Might have a glimmer of greatness (see Grossman with the A's), but I really don't see anyone pursuing him bigtime with a great return. You are trding a 22-25th roster spot player for a similar player...or before you can't option him back a low level prospect. With the Twins coming off a winning season, I dislike the fact that they will probably end up signing a couple of rebuild guys to the rotation. WHile this may prove successful, it is also jarring when you desire having a guy coming out there on the mound from Day One of the season that is slightly better than average if the stars align correctly or replacement value, when you want to win games.

I want to believe that Trevor May will surprise everyone and grab the closer role, work on his pitches and selection, and perhaps become the next Joe Nathan in Twins history. Saw flashes of it each of the past couple of seasons.

Impact line = "The Future Is Ours!" Falvey and Levine were hired before the season began, stuck with management and roster pretty much in place, and the need to go forward with a plan. They put together a five year plan. I do feel they wanted their own manager, but stuck with Molitor, who then won and the Twins shined and they had to playthe winning season card for season ticket success. It took them to the 2018 off-season to begin to put their final pieces in place, overhauling the minor league system, which is almost complete, in terms of staffing. Making decisions of the 100 inherited prospects. 2019 was a surprise success, too. Weak division, perhaps? But Cleveland was in the hunt in the end and almost pushed thru. The swinging bats and run production, as well as a solid bullpen, put the Twins out front. Now they HAVE TO MAKE DECISIONS on the core - Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Rosario. If not in the plans, all four could probably be at their best trade value right now. Once those decisions are in place, they can look at the depth of the organization and decided where names like Gordon, Mirilloff, Larnach, Javier and more fit into longer term plans. Is there a frustration? Yes. They came into this season with upwards of $30 million in cash on top of a winning record that should excite ballpark hounds for the 2020 season. You could say that previous avings and the marketplace could push that amount to nearly $50 million. Combine that amount with the fact that $40 million will also be coming off the books after the 2020 season, well the financials are there to make a splash. Why did they not make a splash. Somehow Texas and Toronto both remade their starting rotations. Are they betetr than the Twins. Can I be mad that the Twins were bridesmaids (as were pothers) in the top five pitching market. I can't be mad when long-term contracts are on the line. I would rather see them tie up their own, young talent for such things than aging arms or bats. Do they know what they are doing? They have to. That is their job. They NEED to put a team on the field to stimulate not only season ticket sales, but also fill the seats longter for the season, get good ratings on radio and television, create ad revenue. I'm waiting to see what the front office does do. Yes, the have to define what is needed. We, as fan, see the need for one top-fight starter...better than Kyle Gibson (and I say Gibson circa 2018). One more bulklpen arm would be nice, preferably a closer unless one thinks Rogers or May is the future - but then we need another lefty in the pen not named Thielbar. But it all boils down to where Rosario plays in the scheme of things. Is Sano an investment towards first base or the designated hitter longterm. Is Buxton worthwhile for more than a season, quietly repalced by any number of prospects (Lewis, Kirilloff) come 2021. Do you give Berrios $100 million now instead of $200 million in a couple of seasons, and do you see him playing towards potential when he ahs cash in hand? Cleveland is still in the hunt. Chicago isp uting together a pretty solid team and staying in budget. Detroit is filling holes but still has weaknesses. It is ahrd to believe that someone paid a billion for the Royals. It all starts with starters. Berrios is a stud, but... Odorizzi gives you five innings. Pineda doesn't show up for work for a couple of months. Dobnak is new kid on the block and hungry. Thorpe has all the talent in the world but can he go a full season and give you innings, keep you in the game. Still down a aprtial arm. And there has to be someone out there better than everyone on the staff NOT named Berrios for the adding, especially when you have upwards of $30 million in payroll to play with for a year or three.

Any other time would LOVE to see the Twins go out on a limb with project pitchers. But they have a division title to defend and need someone still that MIGHT be a surefire arm giving them solid innings of production and a less than 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, let us just rebuild for a Bigger Run in 2021.