Darius

Buzenitz put up flashy window stats last year. He had some nice moments. But, the peripherals will tell you why theyre not handing him the closer role right now. FIP of 4.20, 6.5 K/9. He relies very heavily on that fastball, which is OK, but doesn't have any spectacular secondary offerings. Basically a two-pitch guy with a mediocre breaking ball. Considering those factors along with an unsustainable BABIP near the Mendoza line, and it's likely a matter of time before the things get a little shaky.

People acting as if the beginning of the season doesn't matter as much as the end, like it's some sort of preseason, is so strange to me. All game are equally weighted, whether in September or May. Teams finish a game out of the postseason every year. I'm not even arguing that he doesn't deserve a shot. Frankly, I don't know enough about the guy to form an opinion. I'm calling the sentiment that a contender would knowingly risk a game or two, in what will certainly be a tight playoff race, because they're worried about sending back a rule 5, absurd. He was rule 5'd off of one of the worst teams in baseball. Don't you think they could work out a deal to keep him for peanuts if isn't he truly wasn't ready, but they wanted him that badly? If, for whatever insane reason, they actually believe Duffey and/or Busenitz are better relievers at this moment in time, but would rather chase an unproven guy solely because he can throw 99 (which isn't near as rare as it once was even just a years ago)....they're incompetent. He better be getting the shot because they think he's going to help the team more than Buzenitz or Duffey immediately. If not, what the hell are they thinking? What are you hanging into him for? Do you think he'll go to bed one night one night being sub-Busenitz, and wake up the next morning as K-Rod in his prime? Why worry about keeping that guy?

The Angels are scary to me because they'll get a full season of Trout and Upton, where they only got a fraction of a season from each last year. They also swapped Nolasco (the 2017 Twins MVP award winner, IMO) for Ohtani, and anything they potentially get from Ohtani offensively. He's a work in progress offensively, but I heard recently that he was launching balls in BP farther than anyone else on the team. That team has the best baseball player in the world on it. So, there's a big wildcard (no pun intended). They could potentially be adding a front-end starter and a quality DH with one player. They can't help but get better. Could be a lot better if they can stumble into some pitching. The Orioles signed Alex Cobb, which makes them a little more interesting as well.

This is exactly right, and I don't think Pythag could possibly compensate for that completely. The number of wins each unit of ERA is worth would look like a bell curve (more likely a triangle with a sharp peak). If you're up at a 5.5 ERA, and you drop to a 5.0, or conversely are at a 2.5 ERA and drop to 2.0, you aren't going get a large number of wins added in return. You're likely going to find the large fluctuations in wins (without doing any math) between 3.5 and 4.5. A drop from 4.5 to 4.0 would likely be worth a significant amount more than those mentioned in the previous paragraph. I think that is clear, and don't think anybody would doubt that. Pythag has some correction in sure, but it wouldn't eliminate this. This isn't even considering the unlimited variables that can be introduced (weather, injuries to position players, inevitable statistical fluctuation of position players offensive and defensively, the strength of schedule, how well the pitching staff is managed, the stadium you're playing in, the proportions of LH/RH pitcher and hitter combos). It's endless, and basically futile to attempt a calculation of such magnitude short of having access to a supercomputer.....Unless your comfortable with a margin for error that could possibly put you in the neighborhood of unrealistic ERAs. You could just stop at the assumption that all thing are constant except for ERA. The statistical chance of that happening is microscopic, destroying the integrity of any output. Could possibly be a useful guide...but you'd need a lot of testing to show its reliable.

Misleading sensationalism in the headline, leading you to believe they may have some info other outlets don't. Journalism 101. Reading into anymore than that is a little ridiculous. Your body tends to ache and react poorly to being cut open and tinkered with. This is the expected outcome. This just in, it's cold during January in Minnesota (EVERYONE PANIC! ITS AN ICE AGE! WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO?!)

Vargas seemed like a good guy. I'm sure he was never real happy about it, but he seemed to take the up-and-down treatment (and lack of PT when on the 25) like a professional. He'll put together a nice career in the MLB somewhere. There is always someone who can use a 25 HR guy at DH or as a bat off the bench.

Something else that needs to considered here: Romero is with the big league club....but he's not pitching to big league competition. He's seen a couple of good hitters in ST, but he's not seen great ones in succession like he will in a live regular season game against the Indians, for example. Not sure how much we should buy into this.

I don't necessarily agree with this. Pitchers need to work on pitching to big leaguers at the big league level. AAA won't teach you to do that. Berrios absolutely shredded AAA. He learned how to get AAA hitters out. However, there is a fine line between AAA hitters and big leaguers in terms of pitch recognition. He racked up Ks in AAA that weren't there for him in the majors because the hitters werent chasing the same pitch they would in AAA. There comes a point where your stuff is there and you just need to learn the appropriate locatarion and pitch selection for the situation. That is a lot more vital and demanding in the MLB where you get away with many fewer mistakes. On the job training is the only way. He would've gone through that adjustment whether it was at age 21 or at age 30. Keeping players languishing in AAA assuming there is a magic date in on which they wake up and understand how to get major league players out is damaging to the player and the team, IMO. The player is being robbed of earlier service time related payouts and the team is potentially missing some productive years (for example, if they had brought Berrios up to take his lumps a year earlier, he likely would've reached his current ability to record outs in the MLB a year earlier). There are factors and exceptions of course. But, IMO, that paradigm needs to be shifted.

The Indians strong lefty lineup is largely based on Lindor and Ramirez, both of whom switch hit anyway. Not much you can do in terms of matchups. In fact, when you throw a lefty you then have Ramirez, Lindor, an. Encarnacion to contend with. I'd probably like my chances stacking righties against them more than lefties.

It's an advantage in the AL. List of RH/switch hitters in AL: Mookie Betts Giancarlo Stanton Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez Jonathan Schoop Adam Jones Jose Altuve George Springer Francisco Lindor Jose Ramirez Edwin Encarnacion Elvis Andrus Mike Trout Justin Upton Nelson Cruz Jose Abbreu Avasail Garcia Miguel Cabrera Nick Castellanos Salvador Perez Whit Merrifield I'm sure there's more in missing. It's basically the top 20 of any statistical offensive leaderboard. There are almost no left handed hitters to be overly concerned about. I'd rather stay away from throwing out too many lefties against a lot of AL teams.

I would much rather have Lynn, Odiorizzi, and Morrison on the deals they have instead of Darvish and his deal. Much more flexibility going forward. In my lifetime, I'm not sure I have ever seen a Twins FO be praised so profusely. Very refreshing.

I agree with sentiment that Sano will be a full time DH. However, I don't see Sano as someone who is here long-term for a few reasons: 1) There is a lot of young talent on this team. A lot of guys that are on the same schedule, service-time wise, that could earn significant contracts. Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco.....possibly even Gibson if he puts together a full season in 2018 like the second half of 2017. The Twins will not make the financial investment it would take to secure all of those players while still fielding all other positions. IMO, Buxton and Berrios should be the two at the top of the list. High character, proven work-ethic, elite tools, coachability. They will command big-time deals. Sano, unless he absolutely cannot stay healthy, will likely also command a large deal. There will be an odd man out of those three when the bell tolls. 2). There is so much uncertainty in regards to the dreaded "rod." 3). I'm not sure Sano is making any new fans in the front office. Not finding results when it comes to dropping weight (which some people just can't do short of extreme low-calorie diets which can be dangerous and wouldn't help, it doesn't necessarily mean for lack of effort). The media coverage of the sexual harrasment, and Minnesota always seeming to be on the cutting edge of SJWism (not declaring an opinion, just an observation). Ongoing observable media fueds about his weight. Things just keep popping up, and none of them ever seem to do the Twins my PR favors. 4). I don't know why, maybe it's all of his home run and breaking record talk coming off as self-oriented, but I get the feeling he's the most likely of the three to want to test free agency or seek relocation (due to scandal, or pursuit of warmer climate, any number of things). Then, considering Falvine seem pretty economically savvy, they won't let him walk via free agency, and they'll want to get the most value out of him, because he's a potentially extremely valuable ball-player. Conclusion: There is a very high likelihood, IMO, that Sano will get traded in the near future (2018 off-season or when Rooker is ready?), and this is a problem someone else will have to deal with.

Wasn't there talk around here recently about how Rosario is slow now?

Good look behind the curtain there. In regards to the comment comparing Gibson to Blackburn, and hardly being able to watch him pitch: Did you notice Gibson was the best starter on the staff in the second half? In August and September he had about a 3.6 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 15 walks and 6 quality starts in about 63 innings. He was also pretty good in June and July, with two bad games in 10 starts hurting him (6 ER and 7 ER in 10 total innings). The Twins literally wouldn't have made the playoffs without him after Santana fell off the table. He's not going to win a Cy Young, and had struggled in the past. But, he is showing signs of turning into a pretty good pitcher.

There is a zero percent chance of Romero opening the season in the big league rotation. I don't think the chances are a whole lot higher that we see him in the big league rotation at all in 2018. He may have to pitch a full season first.

If you're not going to do what you can to lock up these guys early, but also won't (aka "can't") spend big on free agents, what exactly are you doing?

I don't think they do anything significant. If they get an opportunity with Cobb or Lynn that they can't turn down, then OK. But, I don't see them actively outbidding anyone. I don't think there's room offensively. I can't see Sano's punishment being that such he is removed from the roster for a singifcant amount of time. Maybe I'm not up to date on the facts.

Really like him slotted in at DH instead of a Grossman, Escobar, etc. This guy, when healthy, can crush the ball. You can't tell me adding a 25-30 HR caliber power bat into the DH slot in this lineup is a bad thing at this point. Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Buxton, CF Sano, 3B Morrison, DH Rosario, LF Kepler, RF Castro, C Polanco, SS ....that's a nice looking lineup against RH SPs (aka most SPs, especially good ones within the division). Then you're left with Garver, Vargas, Escobar, Grossman that can swing from the right side for Castro, Mauer, Kepler. That's a high-end offense.

If Gibson has indeed turned some type of corner, and we get second-half 2017 Gibson out of the 4-5 hole, it's better than "barely too 20." We know what Santana can give. Last won't happen again, but he'll pitch deep into games and give you an ERA around 4. Solid mid rotation guy. Lynn would likely be very similar to Santana. Again, solid mid-rotation guy. Berrios is the key. He's the real "ace," going forward IMO. I think he establishes himself as one of the best young starters in the game this year. He's a legit front-end guy with strikeout stuff. Odorizzi should be fairly solid. High-floor there, but also some ceiling left, IMO. Add those guys to a Gibson pitching like he did in the second-half last year, and that's potentially a very nice rotation.

Could have a lot to do with the young shortstops in the system in a way nobody is talking about. Another established, respected, reputable, spanish-speaker around the club could be very useful in terms of mentorship. Polanco comes to mind immediately, of course, but others could also benefit from picking his brain. Javier, Sano, Rosario, Etc. He has been very successful, both individually and on good teams. He's won a gold glove at SS. He's been a high-end offensive player at his position. He's been an All-Star. He knows how to prepare, practice, conduct himself in the clubhouse and off the field. It can't hurt to have a guy like that around camp as an example. If he ends up playing meaningful innings, there has been a catastrophe with Escobar/Polanco/Sano.

I was all about getting Darvish. With that possibility off the table (and Cole already traded), I don't think there is anyone left that really takes the rotation to the next level (aka World Series contender). At this point, you're better off going internal and possibly banking some payroll flexibility for next year. There are quite a few options internally at the moment. Obviously, Santana, Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are locked in when healthy. Sanchez will get a shot. Mejia likely has the inside track at the a spot if he shows a pulse this spring. Hughes could theoretically be useful if healthy. Duffey and May could be stretched out and given a shot with the added bullpen depth. Gonsalves will likely be ready before too long, and you have a Slegers there for emergencies. Certainly not ideal, but throwing a Cobb in the mix isn't going to make the Indians or Astros lose any sleep.

Really nice trade. Moving to the AL Central out of the AL East will help him out. Moving to Target Field from the Thunderdome will help. I think he could be really good here. I don't mind a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/Sanchez for the bulk of the season. I don't think it's unlikely that'll be pretty good. I'd like to throw a Cobb or Lynn in there, but that's not happening.

If you can dial it up to 93-94 as a left handed starter, that's pretty darn good. I think Gio Gonzales is pretty good comp (not just because the names are phonetically similar). The way he's pitched with velocity declining late in his career is a pretty good blueprint for Gonsalves. Both have decent fastballs, big looping curveballs, sliders and changeups. Gonzales has the better curveball, and Gonsalves has the better changeup, but they're pretty similar.

How did I know someone would take this seriously? I'm making fun of the people who think we need to trade a SS ASAP....even though the likelihood of any of them (Gordon, Lewis, Javier) sticking as SS isn't a given....maybe even not likely.

Release him. We have too many shortstops.