jorgenswest

I agree. It certainly seems necessary this weekend after the burden handed the pen by Blackburn and Hendriks. I also think that some team will better figure out how to use their pitching staff. I recall the 1969 Twins and a 10 man staff. Tom Tischinski was the 3rd catcher on the team. After playing the full season in the majors, he ended the season with 56 plate appearance and 12 starts. They had the left/right pinch hitting tandem of Charlie Manuel and Rick Renick. Both entered games more often from the bench. Frank Quilici was primarily a defensive sub for Harmon Killebrew at 3B. George Mitterwald was the back up catcher starting mostly lefties in a platoon with John Roseboro. There was still a spot on the bench and role for Bob Allison finishing his career and a young Graig Nettles. Imagine the options for Billy Martin with this 7 man bench. Weaver and Stengel were often credited with their ability to build successful platoon combinations. That's a lot easier to do when your carrying a bench with 7 players.

The jump from AA to AAA is slight. The jump to the majors is huge. Many good players have had early struggles. Sometimes the solution is more time at AAA, but the level of play is not near major league. It is not possible for most players to arrive at the major league level "ready". Often the solution is to work through struggle. With their record, the Twins can afford to invest the plate appearances in Dozier. Parmelee needs playing time and so his development is stalled and playing at AAA is better than bench time in the majors. For hitters it may take 1000 major league plate appearances (hopefully before age 27) for an organization to determine their ability to contribute. This was a key year for Valencia to step up. He didnlt. Casilla has well over 1000 plate appearances. Both players are probably showing their potential. The Twins invested quite a few plate appearances into Revere and Plouffe starting last year before getting some return this year. Unless Doumit or Moreau are traded or come up injured, Parmelee's development at the major league level is blocked. This would have been an ideal year to invest bats in Parmelee.

Too early to switch. Jeter had 56 errors in A-ball. Luckily for him, it was much harder for outside fans to pay attention. Koskie and Gaetti had error trouble in the minors. If Sano has the skills that fit with the position, they can stick with him longer. Does Harrison have the skills?

Revere's career in the majors will be determined by his bat. His glove is a plus anywhere in the outfield. Hopefully he increases his walk rate as he develops.

Lot's of teams will be after Sanchez. Why would he sign with the Twins? John Danks received a $65m/5 contract. Sanchez could get something similar. While it is true that there are more potential free agent pitchers this winter, it will also be true that there will be more teams losing a pitcher and therefore more buyers. There market was flooded with closers last year. The most reliable closers received very good deals with a lot of buyers in the market. At the end of the market, a some fringe closers were signed at bargain deals. Sanchez will get a good offer and I can't imagine why he would choose the Twins.

Three options for Liriano with the future in mind. 1- Trade and get something. 2- Offer 12.4 million/1 year this winter and he either signs or we get two comp picks if he leaves hoping for multiple years 3- Sign to multiyear now I am not sure our expectations can be that great in a trade. The other team will get 13-16 starts with the likelihood of losing him in the winter. They can not get compensation for losing him. Can we convince Brian Sabean that the Giants need Liriano back? If the Twins can get a deal for two middling prospects it would be similar to getting two comp picks. As for the multiyear, we will probably have to overpay to convince Liriano to give up his free agent rights. John's suggested offer may not be enough. On the other hand, Doumit gave up his free agent rights when given the second year he couldn't get last winter. The money was fair. The Twins take on the injury risk. Maybe Liriano will do the same for three years if the money is fair. The other option is do nothing. That can't happen. The Twins need to decide now if they will make a qualifying offer. If not, they need to trade him for whatever they can get.

Still hope for Hendriks. Hopefully they will keep him down until September even if he continues to pitch well in AAA.

It will be very difficult for the Twins to convince any significant free agent pitcher to sign with them unless they overpay in years and dollars. A healthy Baker is well worth 9.25 million. I have no medical information to judge. However, any pitcher willing to sign a one year deal at 9.25 million will come with risks. Any #3 starter or better will get more money or years or both.

Wow! I think some of you are in the wrong thread. Positive that we can carry into next year. Mauer leading league in OBP. The outfield Plouffe at 3b Doumit's bat Diamond Perkins, Burton, Burnett, Duensing in the pen These guys keep me watching every day. I look forward to adding a few more names to this list in the second half.

Without medical data it is impossible to judge. I am confident that the only way to keep him is to pick up the option. A healthy Baker is worth that contract. If the best Baker can do is a cheap one year contract, he will take that contract with another team. He will have plenty of offers at that level.

Why would Hamels or Greinke sign with the Twins? They will have several options. The only way is to significantly overpay in terms of years and dollars.

The expectations on this board about what the Twins might receive in trade for Span seem so out of line with the midseason market in previous years. We will almost certainly be disappointed by the return we receive for Span. In response, I am certain someone is going to point to a previous trade like Blake for Santana. The Indians did a great job in finding Santana who was not a top prospect entering the season he was traded. We will have to trust the Twins scouting department to find a great player hidden among the B/C level prospects.

I hope the management sees it in a different way. Teams are always buyers. At some point, a team will go from buying for 2012 to buying for 2013. At this point the priority should be to take care of assets that will no longer be under team control after the season. They did that with Doumit. I would have preferred a trade this summer, but they did something to buy for 2013. They have four options with Liriano and their rights to around 17 more starts. 1-Trade and receive whatever 13-17 Liriano starts is worth 2-Extend his contract this summer. 3-Plan to offer compensation level contract and minimally guarantee two picks or his return for a year. 4-Let him leave in free agency. Any of the top three buy with 2013 in mind. The Twins can't let option 4 occur even if the return seems too low. The other decisions regarding 2013 include options for Baker and Capps and an expiring contract for Pavano. Should they be buying any of these assets for 2013? Unfortunately, all of these guys are injured. At best, they may find someone to take Pavano in a waiver claim deal in August. Their medical team will have to guide them in deciding about Baker. He is certainly capable of returning the value left in his option if healthy. Is Capps worth 6 million next year? I don't think so. I hope they can turn him into a different 2013 asset. If they have decided they are not going to pick up his option, they must trade him for whatever is the best deal. Every other player is under contract for next year. Any trade has to clearly leave them better off for the future. Morneau - If they find a team to take his contract and turn those dollars into starting pitching in the winter free agent market, it is a buy for 2013. Any return in the trade would be a bonus. Span, Willingham, Perkins... - It is very unlikely they will be better off in 2013 by trading them this summer. In fact, there is no evidence to support that a midseason trade brings more value. A trade this winter is no less likely in returning value. While it is true that there is more urgency midseason, the winter offers more potential buyers and much more roster flexibility to make a deal. There were only three midseason deals last year that netted players from Baseball America's top 100. It took Beltran, Pence and Jimenez to return that value. It doesn't seem likely that the Twins have better to offer. The closest comp to Span, Michael Bourn, netted 4 mediocre prospects. The Twins are buyers. Buying for the future.

Let's hope not. The Twins need to be blown away with an offer for any of their 2013 assets. I would hate to see a deal like the Astros received last year for Bourn. Bourn comps better than Span so it is unlikely they will do better. It is very rare for a top prospect to be traded midseason for a Span level player. In hindsight, you will find all kinds of deals for players who later turned out to be great players (Carlos Santana for example). That credit goes to the team that made the trade for a player who was not a top prospect at the time. Last year Beltran, Jimenez and Pence were the only players who returned top 100 prospects in a midseason trade. I love Span, but I don't he is valued at their level by other teams. Do we trust the Twins scouts to be able to pick a diamond out of the vast array of middling prospects? Other than possibly Diamond, they haven't done so well lately.

I had to reread what I wrote originally. I should have been more clear for you. Did you assume I implied that it was now a hitter's park? Sorry about that. My point is that there is a lot of variance with parks from year to year and the first two years of data from Target Field probably is not enough to declare it a pitcher's park.

Josh has had a great season, but in the context of left fielders I don't think you can classify it as a snub. I am interested about the use of WPA as a measure at this point. I understand a very large sample size (>650 PA) before it stabilizes. So many factors are in play. While it is an interesting stat in highlighting great performance like David Freese's in the playoffs, it may not be as useful as a tool to compare player performance within a season. It is a metric where Willingham stands out at this point. Arbitrarily choosing another metric like fangraph's WAR, Willingham is listed 5th among AL leftfielders. It is really 4th as two Angels are ahead of him. I would think it would be a snub if by whichever metric were chosen, Willingham was among the top 2 in LF. I don't want to snub Willingham either. Had he been chosen instead of Mauer or another OF, I don't think anyone would argue that he was undeserving. There are always more deserving players than spots.

In 2010 and 2011, Target Field park factor for run scoring was .962 and .944. It is considered to be a pitcher's park. Through half of a season this year, park factor for run scoring is 1.053. Home runs are still down, but everything else is up. It takes more than two years to determine how a venue will impact run scoring. Look at data for Mall of America Field from 2007-2009 and you will see significant season to season variance even in a climate controlled venue. Our assumptions about Target Field being a pitcher's park may be incorrect. It hasn't been thus far this year. If you are interested, park factor data can be found at http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Great report. The Valencia possibility is an interesting one. In the defense of the Dodgers trade of Santana for Blake, Baseball America had ranked Santana the Dodger organization number 25 prospect entering the season. He was having a great half season in the hitting rich California League, but reports of the trade at the time did not portray him as a top prospect in baseball. Let's hope the Twins can find a gem like Santana hidden deep in the list of an organization's prospects.

I enjoyed your report. It is a fun event.

Are you saying that Doumit projects as a league average or better DH for the duration of the contract?

Why would Greinke sign now with the Twins when he can test the market in a few months?

I apparently wasn't clear enough. I am not suggesting that the 2.5 million would be used alone to buy a pitcher. I am saying that I would not spend any other money on offense since as you pointed out all of the positions are locked up. I would also suggest that the Twins stop looking for decline phase players who will take a 3-5 million dollar deal. Take three of those players like Carroll, Doumit and Marquis and instead spend it on one larger contract and two near minimum contracts. Why not after an Edwin Jackson first and see what you have left? Instead they sign Doumit and Carroll first and then are stuck with 3-5 million which got them Marquis and Zumaya. It is no different now. Their first priority for 2013 was a role player. That money is gone. My assumption is the budget will not change much. Is there anything that they have said otherwise? Maybe their assumption is any contract 3-5 million must be a good one. The sign Blackburn and Span to long term deals in that range to avoid arbitration. Span worked out. Blackburn didn't. They gave that level of contract to Carroll, Doumit, Nishioka and Marquis. Is the total worth the sum of the parts? I think the philosophy needs to change.

It is hard to separate the player from the Twins priorities in building a roster. Doumit is an asset to the Twins. He will likely return the value. He is a valuable hitter on the bench and relative to other catchers. The Twins will have a budget line for next year. We can argue that it should be increased. Assuming that it will be close to this year's line, they just spent 3.5 million on their back up catcher/ role player. I think some would argue that they should allocate the majority of their available resources into pitching as the top priority. Why not spend less for this spot on the roster and free up 2.5 million for pitching?

Thome was traded to the Orioles for Gabriel Lino and Kyle Simon. Seems like the Twins gave him away last year.

Thanks Parker. I would love to see the Twinscentric group begin debate on the blueprint for 2013. To me, Doumit is the first winter free agent signing and the first step Terry Ryan has made in his blueprint for 2013. If trading Span is in your blueprint, how do you fill RF? Would you pick up options on Baker or Capps? Do you assume the same budget going into 2013? Doumit would not have been part of my blueprint at this point. I would go for pitching and see what was left to fill out the bench. It is not a knock on Doumit. I think his value exceeds the 0.0 WAR assigned to him by Baseball Reference. I don't want to argue that he is worth the contract. I do argue that the Twins have greater needs than catcher.