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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I know Bromberg had a lot of strike outs in the low minors, but I thought they were the result of his stuff. While his working fastball rate may be faster than that of Pavano, I think it sits in the low 90s and not in the context of a pitcher considered a hard thrower. I also think he is a fly ball pitcher. Would Kevin Slowey be a reasonable comp? Maybe not. Slowey probably had a better control. He also relied heavily on fast ball location. They both are fly ball pitchers with low 90's fastball. Like Slowey, Bromberg will probably struggle to miss major league bats.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don't think they will pick up the option. We won't have access to medical data, so as jimbo says it is impossible to say. I am certain he will not resign with the Twins. He will say all the right things and so will the Twins but he will move on. The Twins will have one chance to keep him. Pick up the option. I am also certain that they will not be able to sign a good starter for the same money. Good free agents shop for teams. What would make Minnesota attractive to a free agent? The only way I can see it would be to significantly overpay by salary or years. The Twins can't risk another long term contract. Baker may be the smaller risk.
  3. jorgenswest
    Let him go. With the DFA, he is essentially a C level prospect in the Washington organization. If teh Twins are going to trade for C level prospects, shouldn't we be looking at other positions?
  4. jorgenswest
    I am surprised Komatsu was DFA'd. Washington will take him back. He is younger than Mastroianni and has better numbers in the minors. His numbers are not good enough to send someone to Wasington in order to keep him. If the Twins have a strength in the minors it is outfield depth.
  5. jorgenswest
    A smaller contract for Baker won't be an option. If the Twins don't pick up his option, he will be with another team. The discussion should be pick up his option or let him go. The Twins must also factor in that it will be very difficult for them to sign a pitcher in the free agent. Why would a player choose Minnesota over another team given the same contract? They wouldn't. The only way is to overpay over multiple years. We have enough of those contracts. Their choice will be risk the money on Baker, sign a decline phase #5 pitcher or get lucky with a minor league free agent. It isn't going to be spend money on Grienke instead. Which would you choose Baker, decline guy or minor league free agent?
  6. jorgenswest
    A healthy Scott Baker is worth the contract. I wish I had confidence in the Twins ability to assess the injury risk. It is a gamble either way. As long as he gets the clear from the medical team, I think the Twins would be better off gambling on a guy with the upside of a #2 starter. I don't want to spend any more money on apparent safer choices like Marquis and Carroll. I am only thankful that they didn't add to it last winter by signing an apparently safe no upside veteran reliever like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler.
  7. jorgenswest
    What's the difference? Not enough to merit giving a long term contract to a back end starter like Blackburn. Not enough to merit signing of decline phase veterans like Marquis. Ultimately there are 150 jobs for starting pitchers at any given time. Spend money when you need to on a pitcher in the top half of that 150. Their performance is worth the risk of decline or injury. Don't spend money on the others. Replace.
  8. jorgenswest
    Most recent comp is the trade of Michael Bourn last year. The Braves did not have to trade any of their pitching prospects to get him. They sent Jordan Shafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreau to Houston. Span currently ranks 12th in WAR among centerfielders and could help some teams. However, I don't know if they should expect any more than the Astros received for Bourn who has been a better player over the last two years. Look at the trades over the last few summers. I don't see many #2-3 pitching prospects changing hands. Last year they were included in trades for Ubaldo Jimenez, Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran. Fortunately the Twins are in a good position with Span. Worst case, they keep him unless someone comes in a blows them away.
  9. jorgenswest
    As long as the Twins can send DeVries back to AAA with an option, I don't see any reason not to give him a start or two. He can't be worse than Marquis and should be able to match Blackburn. If he has a few rocky starts, they can send him back. By that time, I hope that Liriano is ready for another shot.
  10. jorgenswest
    Why would any significant free agent sign with the Twins? I can't see any reason why a player would sign with a team that has so many needs and so little hope for 2013. They have to rebuild the hard way. The only way the Twins will sign anyone is to overpay so significantly that it couldn't be anything but a bad contract in the long run. We see comments like this all the time. Recently... Why didn't the Twins take the money they spent on Capps, Marquis and Zumaya and spend it on Edwin Jackson (who signed an 11 million dollar contract with Washington)? How can anyone assume that was ever a choice? Given the two options, Jackson would choose Washington every time. Why choose a Twins team coming off a horrible season and a historically bad infield defense? Jackson not only needed to consider this year, but contracts in the future. They would have had to pay much more than Washington to get him. Signing significant free agents will not be an option for bottom feeders like the Twins. They have to dig their way out with smart player development.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is data about individual umpires public or at least available to teams? Perhaps teams might adjust how aggressive they are at the plate based on the home plate umpire.
  12. jorgenswest
    Will they ever learn? If he has any kind of injury, put him on the DL. If they can skip a Blackburn start, they only lose one more. Some might argue that it is really a loss. The last time they didn't DL him to get one start over 15 days, they had to DFA Luke Hughes. Blackburn was awful in that one extra start. Why not bring up Slama and have Swarzak, Duensing or even Liriano take that start a week from Saturday? I have asked a few times, do they really need 13 pitchers? With this starting rotation in may not be enough. Let's get another arm for the pen.
  13. jorgenswest
    I hope he gets regular time in LF while he is up with Willingham at DH and Morneau at first.
  14. jorgenswest
    Bullpen has really been worked this week. Maybe we will see Slama while giving Duensing or Swarzak a start.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am not a Pavano fan. I probably said the same thing as I unwisely would have given the starts to Slowey last year. However, I can not look at the data last year and support the premise that it was a bad contract. It wasn't. Finding a 3 WAR pitcher is not easy or inexpensive.
  16. jorgenswest
    After more than 1300 AAA plate appearances, Bates OPS sits at .720 and SLG at .369. That would be poor for a middle infielder. Seems like the mistake (if there was a mistake) was keeping Bates over Steve Pearce in the first place. The reality is that neither will likely ever help at the major league level, but they could have expected Pearce to be provide more help to the AAA team.
  17. jorgenswest
    Easy to look back and say it was a mistake. However, the Twins were coming off a good season and expecting another. His performance last year was not the problem and a reasonable value. His 2.9 WAR (fangraphs) was probably worth more than the first year of the contract. This year appears to be a certain loss. If a mistake, this one probably isn't close to the top of the list. Travis Blackley is already 29. For that reason, I hope the Twins look elsewhere for help.
  18. jorgenswest
    Good analysis. Great book. Always wondered if the run scoring context alters the table. The context would not only include era and park but also pitcher and ability of on deck batter and successive batters I suspect that the payoff of stealing the base increases as the run scoring context decreases.
  19. jorgenswest
    I guess I am interested in seeing it in the data. Once the data shows a trend, the reasoning would follow. If I look at the current 3B's, will they have had later career starts than other positions? Do prime seasons for a 3B tend to occur later? If so, maybe I should have more hope for the 27 year old Valencia. I did a quick look for a study but didn't see one. My question: "Is there more hope for Valencia as a struggling 27 year old because he plays 3B and hence will develop later?" I know there are examples of guys who moved to 3B or away from 3B. Players often move down the defensive spectrum as the age. That doesn't give hope for Valencia. I think I will take a shot at that question sometime in the future. In my mind, I have an impression that catchers and lefties develop later. That may be a false impression. Maybe it is 3B's that require more patience.
  20. jorgenswest
    I was not aware that 3B's make it to the bigs later. I would have guessed more catchers and left handed pitchers may develop later. I suppose speed positions may be on the earlier side. Anyone seen a study in this area? My interest is player development and career path. It hasn't been in my mind to be more patient with thirdbasemen.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don't think either Walters or Mastroianni will be with the team for the duration, but I can't disagree with moving Valencia or Maloney. Valencia does not help with the bat or glove and has little value on the bench. He lived off his mirage of a high babip his rookie season. This is his season to step it up or disappear. Still a chance he will get hot in AAA and get another chance. Most likely his best year in his career will have been his first. It is unlikely anyone will pick up Maloney. If the Twins retain him, I hope he goes into the Rochester rotation. Lefties will always get more shots and sometimes develop later as a result. Not sure how Mastroianni fits with Komatsu as an extra OF that are poor PH options. I don't know why they need two of them. Seems redundant though they did give Mastroianni did play 5 games at 2B. That doesn't make him a good option at 2B. Any chance the Twins will have a claim in for Blake DeWitt? I would guess Walters will be a long reliever. I don't see anything encouraging in his minor league numbers. I would have rather seen them look at Slama. Do they really need 13 pitchers?
  22. jorgenswest
    I would be motivated by the following. The Twins need to know if he can play defense adequately enough at the major league level. If not, they have no options for next year. He needs significant time this year. They need to maximize his value in his prime ages of 26-30. Most players have a period of adjustment at this level. AAA and AA can not prepare them for major league pitchers. Reaching MLB 1000 PA's sometime during or before the age 26 season will maximize and lengthen their prime phase of their career. His lack of time at AAA will cause more growing pains, but by the end of next season we should know if he is a valuable piece to the team or not. On another note, Casilla and Valencia have reached that threshold. They are in the midst of what would be their prime. This is the year they need to step forward or it is very likely we have seen the best they have to offer.
  23. jorgenswest
    The rules for super 2 have changed with the new CBA. The new threshold is 22% and while the date is a moving target it will be much later than last year. I have read in a few places that it is expected to be sometime in July after the all star break. In any case, it will be a much longer wait than 4 weeks from now. I would expect the Twins understand these implications. In any case, no team should consider waiting the super 2 for a 25 year old player. The Twins will be able to keep that player under a reasonable contract through their prime. It is the Harper's, Trout's and hopefully Sano's where teams might proceed with some caution.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins can ask for a top level starter prospect, but I don't think it is reasonable. The Astros received 4 players for Michael Bourn. This was written last year in analysis of the deal. "The Great Astros Purge of '11 continues with Atlanta's thieving Bourn for Jordan Schafer and three prospects. None of the four project as anything more than mediocre big-league regulars. Bourn, in the meantime, is among the game's three best defensive center fielders and is primed to lead the league in steals for the third consecutive season." I would think Bourn had more value than Span when traded last year.
  25. jorgenswest
    How about Jason Bartlett for a comp? They have similar skill sets and Jason Bartlett was also 25 in his rookie year. His slash line that year was .241/.316/.335 in 252 plate appearances.
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