jorgenswest

Reports state the Cubs dfa'd Blake DeWitt to add Travis Wood to the roster today. DeWitt is a 26 year old left handed batting 2B-3B. His career OPS is essentially a match for Valencia, although Valencia's is shaded by his very high BABIP his rookie year. His defense at 3B was respectable in his rookie season with the Dodgers. Since then he has seen much more time at 2B. He is a year younger than Valencia. I am not sure if it is an upgrade but it might be worth a shot. I guess he could profile as a Luke Hughes type. His experience at 3B and his left handed bat may give him more value than Hughes to a bench. Platoon option? Who would he replace? Do we really need 13 pitchers? How about Jeff Gray?

It is much easier to find or sign a set up man. It is a risk to move Perkins. I think the reward of finding a starter for next year outweighs the risk.

The current AAA manager, Gene Glynn, came from the Rays organization. The Rangers moved both Wilson and now Feliz from relief to starter. They might do the same with Perkins if he was under their direction

Span's WAR ranks him 13th among centerfielders this year. He would be a real upgrade to a few competing teams, but the Twins need to play hardball. He is an asset and will be an asset next year. They can replace his defense with Revere but not his lead off ability. Revere does not get on base enough. I don't see another lead off hitter in the system close to ready for next year. They also have him under a reasonable contract.

I wonder what the Rangers or Rays management would do if they took over the Twins? Would they take what looks like the best arm in Perkins and try to make him a starter again? Any pitcher is much more valuable as a starter even in moderate drop in overall performance. Can he only find success as a reliever? On the surface, it looks like success and relief are tied together. There is an argument when you look at his increase in velocity. You can also look at the addition of the slider. He didn't throw the slider when he was a starter. He threw a curve ball. Should they worry about his health as a starter? I don't think that is the reason not to give it a shot. All starters are an injury risk. They have to put that risk somewhere. If it isn't pouring dollars into a multiyear free agent contract, it is in trading significant prospects to get a good starter. Starters are such a valuable asset, they are worth a risk. It might be worth using this year to stretch him out and get him in the rotation. I think it is something the Rangers might try if they ran the team.

"Call to the Pens" article about Valencia today. http://calltothepen.com/2012/05/06/minnesota-twins-looking-to-trade-danny-valencia/

The Twins rotation seems hopeless. Can they find anyone who can claim a spot next year? Diamond is the next one who gets a chance. Pitchers are so hard to evaluate based on data. The sample size for any relief pitcher is so small (even over a year). The sample size for all pitchers is so small after a month of a season. How do the Twins react to the poor or encouraging results over one month? One reaction is to send Hendrick to AAA and give Diamond a shot. Very reasonable given Hendricks age. Is Diamond the correct choice for the spot? Hard to know. Below is the minors league numbers for Maloney, Diamond, Blackburn and Swarzak. All have significant innings over several years. Based on one month this year, Diamond will get a chance. In his favor, he is left handed and the youngest of the group. He also has a lower hr/9 rate compared to the others. Could be park effects. Howevere, the data represents many innings over several different teams. Should we give up on Maloney based on some poor relief outings? Maybe. Compared to the others, both his k/9 and h/9 in the minors stand out. He is also left handed. On the other hand, he is 2.5 years older than Diamond. Neither Diamond or Maloney's previous organizations had enough confidence in their ability to protect them. Do the Twins keep giving Blackburn starts because of the contract they awarded him? What about giving Swarzak more starts? In truth, it is likely none of the four should be a major league starter. However if the Twins can find a starter in at least one of these pitchers, they will be better off next year. Who would you invest the starts in this year? How about Marquis and Liriano? It is unlikely either will be a Twin next year. Should they keep getting starts in hopes of being able to trade them later in the year? [TABLE=width: 400] [/TD] [TD] age ip era h9 hr9 k9 w9 Maloney L 28 890.1 3.27 8.1 0.7 8.3 2.5 Diamond L 25 600 3.70 9.8 0.5 7.1 2.8 Blackburn R 30 723.2 3.64 8.8 0.7 5.6 2.0 Swarzak R 26 816.1 3.97 9.3 0.7 7.3 2.8 [/TABLE]

The draft pick was not a guarantee. Someone would have needed to give him a major league deal. Was there also a deadline? A few of the closers signed very late in the process. Best case. He puts up the appearance of success and the Twins get a C level prospect. It could happen.

It is hard to trust the Twins assessment. Burroughs - He has the same ability and skill today as he did opening day. They could have sent him to Rochester without putting him on the 40 at the end of spring. They assessed he was worthy of a spot on the 25 and 40 and now risk losing him. Did the management fail to assess his ability a month ago or have they failed now? Butera - Butera's ability to hit has not changed in 4 weeks. There may be a need if Mauer can't catch right now. Howver, when Mauer is healthy Butera should be returned to AAA. If he remains, were the Twins incorrect in their assessment about his ability to contribute from the bench a month ago or are they incorrect now? 13 pitchers - Tonight they have one option on the bench. Trevor Plouffe. Inexcusable. Weren't some encouraged by the bench to open the season? Asset management - We will argue the value of Hughes and Burroughs to the organization. The Twins either mistakenly valued these assests or poorly mismanaged them.

The Twins did something similar with Pedro Florimon. It was off season so he was available when the Orioles took him off the 40. The Twins had to add him on the 40 to claim him and later removed him from the 40 where he went unclaimed and remained with the Twins.

I think if you looked at Kansas City you would see that it was only recently that they went young. They built a cycle of mediocrity around the signing of players like 36 year old middle infielder Mark Grudzielanek. Look at their 2006 roster and decisions. Looks like the blue print Ryan is following. I don 't want the Twins to follow the same path.

Age is a huge consideration. Very few players have significant careers when the reach the 1000 plate appearance threshold after their age 26 season (July 1 age of given season). Any player who is in the age 24 season needs to be on track towards getting significant playing time by next year. A players best years center 26-29. A team should want those years to be in the majors and not adjusting to the majors. If they are called up after the super two deadline at age 24, the arbitration should not be a consideration. They will be under team control through their prime. The clock is not a factor for these players. These players are old enough to meet that threshold Diamond, 25 Slama, 28 Dozier, 25 Benson, 24 If they are called up after super 2 is not a possibility, they will not be eligible for arbitration for 3 more seasons. None of them is a super prospect. If the biggest problem the Twins have is that they will be due a huge salary as they near or pass 30, they will have been a very productive player by then. Guerra should be added to the list also. Though he is younger, he will be out of options next year and the Twins will better be able to decide if he is part of the bullpen solution. Herrmann is also 24. However, he is learning to catch. Your second point about development cited Gomez who came up at age 21 and had 600+ plate appearances at age 22. Young came up at 20 and had 600+ plate appearances at 21. I agree with your point and wouldn't suggest that Sano or similar should be promoted to the majors soon. The Harper/Trout comment also fits Sano but not the above list. Any player 24+ years old has had years of instruction and teaching. It is time to see if they can adjust to the major league level. There will be growing pains. The Twins can afford to suffer through those pains the second half of this year.

The few assets they should be willing to trade are decline phase players still playing well. Willingham and Morneau may be the only two chips that can return real starting pitching prospects. There are possible LF and DH solutions in the minors for next year. There are no starting pitching solutions. Those positions are also easier to acquire in free agents. Ticket sales will be down.

I agree, the Twins can not expect anything back for Pavano, Marquis and Carroll. Given their current level of play, they all have contracts that exceed their value. If they can get a team to take the contract. Great. If they include a minor leaguer similar to those the Twins received for Delmon. Better. I suggest that the Twins invest the playing time in players who could be part of the solution... even if it leads to additional losses in 2012.

Guerra moved to AAA today. Let's see him in July also.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

Which has more value? There are legends about players traded for a bucket of baseballs or the like. The Twins gave up Luke Hughes for one Nick Blackburn start. Last week the Twins had a few pitchers with sore arms. Nick Blackburn missed a start. Glenn Perkins was on the shelf. They needed a pitcher and Marquis was ready to join the team. They had a few options. 1 - Place Nick Blackburn on the DL. The risk was that he would not be able to start tonight's game. They would lose 1 start from Nick Blackburn. He would be eligible return for the next start. 2 - Outright Luke Hughes - The risk would be losing him to another organization. Last night they couldn't pinch hit for Plouffe because they didn't have a healthy reserve infielder. Plouffe did well in the spot, but they couldn't use Burroughs. They valued one Nick Blackburn over the value of keeping Luke Hughes in the organization. What did they get for Luke Hughes? One start. 3 innings, 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 1 walk and 2 strikeouts. The game isn't over yet but it sure looks like a loss. A bucket of baseballs would have more value. It is hard to see the logic in the Twins thinking.

A good fit. Sizemore is out. Hughes has a chance to show he can hit well enough to start. What are the chances he will be more productive than Valencia this year?

Disappointing reasoning. A manager should know better. I want my manager to know better. The 3 for 6 has no meaning and no predictive value.

Is the worry about losing the DH? How much better is Butera than a pitcher? Is the desire to have a better defender at catcher on the bench? Maybe reasonable. As long as Butera doesn't start, I would rather see him than Towles. If Mauer is out with injury, I'd rather see Towles.

Was Mattingly the last left handed thrower to make a play from 3b?

Hughes is more similar to Jeff Baker than Dan Uggla. There aren't very many teams that have a player like Hughes on the bench. I think he will remain with the Twins and get another chance. If not, I hope to see him find more success in his next window of opportunity than he was able to produce in last year's window.

Do you think Boston would have interest in Revere? How much more would the Twins need to get from Boston in addition to Bowden? How about offering Span for more?

I went through the rosters looking for players similar to Hughes that have found their way onto a bench. Looking for right handed batting 2B-3B-1B. Not very many. Jeff Baker and Justin Turner are couple of examples of players with similar skills sets that are a bench player this year. Jeff Baker has made a career of it. Justin Turner was a starter last year and has started two games this year. He has not been a bench player over his career. Jeff Baker has made a career of it. Anyone else? Can Hughes hit well enough to have that career?