jorgenswest

Hughes skill set does not add much to a bench. Secondbasemen that can't play shortstop have to hit well enough to be the starter at 2B. If there is a team out there that can envision Hughes as their best option at 2B, he will be picked up. Does anyone see a fit?

The 40 man roster or 25 man roster should not be an issue. The Twins are not deep in talent. The bottom of their 40 man is filled with cast offs. They can outright Gray. They can drop Mastroianni from the 40 man and option Burnett. The issue is their assessment of Thompson's talent and health. I can't assess either. My view is the narrow one of data. According to Thompson's data, he has been more successful than Gray, Burnett and Maloney.

Why not take Nishioka off the 40 man roster? What is the risk?

I would think it gives Revere a chance to play everyday in AAA. Clete Thomas is probably comparable to Jason Repko. Some defense and speed in the outfield. Played mostly RF in majors but was a CF early in the minors and split time in RF and CF last year. Questionable bat. Little upside at 28 years old. Still hope they claim Rich Thompson.

Some data below from baseball reference. I used data through 2011 which is problematic since some have barely begun their careers. There will be a little bias in favor of college players. [TABLE=width: 431] Pick Status selected majors? WAR 10+ WAR 30+ WAR 50+ [/TD] 1 college 24 22 14 2 0 2 college 24 22 12 3 2 3 college 21 18 8 3 1 4 college 26 23 7 4 3 95 85 41 12 6 1 HS 23 19 11 6 3 2 HS 23 19 6 0 3 HS 26 18 7 2 1 4 HS 21 13 7 2 0 [TD] 93 69 31 10 4 [/TABLE] While it is clear that a player selected from college has a better chance of playing in the majors. It is not clear that they have a better chance of being a significant major league player.

I don't think there is great risk in sending Hughes to the minors and losing him on options. He isn't very useful on a bench. He isn't a useful utility infielder without the ability to play SS well. He doesn't have speed. He doesn't hit left handed. History is full of hitting AAAA second basemen like him. They either need to hit well enough to start in the majors or they end up a journeyman spending a lot of time in the minors.

I hope the Twins are smarter than using 1 performance to judge his value. Over time, he has been more effective than many of the other options the Twins have in the bullpen. Why not claim him and give either Hendriks or Burnett time at AAA?

Frustrating. Yes. Frustrated with Baker. No. I did not get a sense that Ryan is frustrated with Baker. He is frustrated that they can't get a handle on the problem.

Great insight. I will also watch for... Glen Perkins velocity Last year in the relief role his fastball was up 2 mph. He always virtually abandoned a change up and curve and threw the slider about 30% of the time. The relief role is given credit for giving his career a new life, but the slider he started throwing at a greater rate in 2010 gave him an out pitch. A new pitch can sometimes be an elixer. The slider can also lead to arm trouble and he experienced some trouble in the second half of the season. Is he healthy? Will he continue to throw 94? Will he continue with a slider at the 2011 rate? Right Field Playing Time Who gets the playing time? Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere are all flawed defensive right fielders. Will any step forward and take that position? How will Gardenhire manage the position? From the outside, it seems the perfect opportunity to platoon Plouffe against all lefties. Is that what we will see in April?

Great report Seth. I think you had Kyle Knudson on the DL at Beloit in an earlier report. Is that still the case? Did you also have Markus Solbach playing in Australia. Will he be an extended spring candidate?

Best for the Twins? - send him to AAA until he is ready to start. If it is more than 10 days, that will be OK. The risk is that he will choose free agency. If that happens, let him go. Best for Marquis? - Tough call. I don't think I would want to add free agency into the mix. Rochester must be closer to home.

Thanks for the post Nick. Just listening to G&G and it occurred to me the challenge that Twins daily and bloggers will certainly face. If a blogger is more in the role of analyzing than reporting then they need something (often data) to analyze. Unlike reporting, that is difficult to on a daily basis. There is not a lot of data gathered in a given day or week or even month. A blogger's solid analysis of depth at a position or roster composition or other decisions the Twins have made can't realistically be altered by a week or month of data. If it can, it probably wasn't that sound. The challenge is to keep the analysis sound and grounded in data. It will be the challenge of the bloggers at Twins "Daily". If the content of the analysis is unsound in order to keep volume and interest up, the site and bloggers lose credibility. If the content is not refreshed enough, it will be more difficult to generate interest.

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?

My best hope is that he has the luck of the small sample size by the all star break and the illusion generates trade interest. Contenders are always looking for bullpen help. With astounding luck, maybe we can sucker someone into giving up a Wilson Ramos level prospect. Ok... I guess the last part is unreasonable.

Nicely organized chart. Easy to get a quick view of the long term. You might consider adding an age column.

There will be some pitchers who are out of options available in next week. Perhaps the final spot in the pen will be filled by a waiver claim. Any interest in Alfredo Simon taking Burnett's spot? There will others. The Twins have an early waiver claim due to their record. Maybe they should use it. I would guess that they are paying attention to available middle infielders also.

The Indians sent Kevin Slowey to the minors today. I wonder if he would like to rethink the attitude and effort he appeared to give the relief role last year. He will always be limited by his inability to mix his pitches and fits better coming out of the pen.

The bench... Revere - pinch run, outfield defense Plouffe - platoon against lefty, pinch hit against lefty, versatile Hughes - platoon against lefty, pinch hit against lefty, better defense at 2B than Plouffe Burroughs - left handed pinch hitter, plays 3B Dinkelman - left handed hitter, versatile Towles - third catcher Plouffe and Hughes are somewhat redundant, although defense at 2B is in Hughes favor and a strong consideration given Casilla's health. To me the most versatile bench include Towles, Revere, Plouffe or Hughes, Burroughs or Dinkelman. No reason to think Dinkelman will hit based on track record. Plouffe and Hughes are out of options so they both probably stick. The choice then comes down to Burroughs or Towles.

Thanks USAFChief. I needed the laugh. I am not advocating, but Alfredo Simon may be a better option than Carlos Silva. I am paying attention to how the Red Sox work out their pitching. They have a few guys out of options that may not fit well in the pen if they don't make the rotation. Felix Doubront has a good ERA this spring but he has been hit and may not fit well in the pen. The Red Sox can't afford to be patient with him. It appears (but not certain) he will begin the season in the rotation with a short leash. Andrew Miller is also out of options, He is a certain risk while having more upside than a Simon, Aaron Cook, Silva and Livan.

I think it is more likely Hughes will be dropped from the roster sometime this year and return to the minors without anyone picking him up. There is little in his minor league record to suggest that he will hit well in the majors.

I think a career path similar to Kubel is possible. Kubel had a great season at age 27 improving each season in OPS. 24 - .665 25 - .785 26 - .805 27 - .907 28 - .750 29 - .766 I think it is more likely that he will struggle as Kubel did at 24 and be sent down at some point rather than put up an OPS of 800+. An OPS of .750 is more reasonable and should keep him in the majors. Look for a steady progression in the coming years.

Just some other performances at Fort Myers to consider. I looked for players the Twins drafted out of high school that eventually had success in the majors. They may have spent more time at Fort Myers but this is their season before moving to AA. Seth probably will find obvious players that I have missed. Player, age, OPS Hunter, 20, .678 Morneau, 20, .821 Cuddyer, 20, .873 Span, 21, .813 Kubel, 21, .761 Mauer, 20, .807 (half season) Hicks, 21, .722 Hicks' performance is topped by everyone but Hunter. Hunter is also the most similar in tools. I agree with those that advocate for moving him up and see how he responds.

Maybe he will need to be more aggressive against better pitching in AA. Let's find out.

Baker doesn't appear close to ready. Marquis is not in camp. Is it possible that both will not be in the rotation as the Twins break camp? Who is in line to get those starts? Any signs of the Twins stretching out some of the players pegged for a relief role? What is the succession order? Liam Hendriks Anthony Swarzak Brian Duensing Matt Maloney Jeff Manship Seth may be able to help with this... what is the projected starting rotation at Rochester? How close are PJ Walters and Luke French to a Twin uniform? I know there was talk of scanning the waiver wire for reserve shortstop help. Pitching might be the greater need.