jorgenswest

Johnson in the market adds to the supply and makes it more difficult to get return for Liriano. Hopefully they are asking for too much and teams will look to Liriano. It would be great to have Johnson in Minnesota, but I think the price would be very high and teams in the hunt will have more motivation to overpay.

For the Twins, they will have two choices. 1) Pick up his option 2) Let him go for no return If he becomes a free agent, he will choose to leave the organization.

Back to the trades Sanchez-Turner Sanchez has more value than Liriano so it is good that he is off the market this early. Turner is a great return for them. His lower k rate this year may be some concern but he is 21. Sanchez may not be a rental and by acquiring him now the Tigers will not need to forfeit a pick as they would had they signed him as a free agent. Dempster-Delgado As a rental, Dempster has more value than Liriano. It is also good that he is off the market. Delgado is a good prospect. He ranks similarly to the better prospects traded last summer like White and Wheeler, but comes with major league experience. Ichiro for salary relief. I guess we might expect similar in a Morneau trade freeing up dollars to spend in the winter. It does help set the market for Liriano. Hamels and a Garza are still out there and they should bring more. The Twins might be able to swing a trade for a package that the Cubs or Phillies turned down for that pair. At least Liriano is getting closer to the best option for a starting pitcher. It is not reasonable to expect a return similar to the returns we saw yesterday.

Catcher ERA has been studied and debated for several years and is seen as a problematic in measuring catcher performance. Current research using pitch f/x data may lead to better results. If you are interested in this stuff, you can read a comparison of Rays catchers below. http://theraysway.com/articles/jose-lobaton-dues-ex-machina--2 It would be interesting to see a similar comparison of the three Twin catchers at the end of the season. It could be that Butera has significant value that has gone unmeasured.

Competitive - Is it a team that is expected be win around .500? Is it a team that around the trading deadline has an outside chance of making a playoff run? That's my definition.

As the Twins approach the trade deadline, they will do so with an eye on the future in mind. I see these options as they build towards 90. Option 1: Seek players who can contribute next year and go for 90 wins. As they look at their roster with the current budget, can they reasonably expect to build a 90+ win team next year? If so, they need to add pieces that will help next year. They will need to choose lower upside AA/AAA players rather than a higher upside A Ball player. They will need to retain players under contract who can contribute next year (Span, Willingham, Doumit for example). Consider trading high upside A-Ball prospect for players ready to play in 2013 Option 2: Seek players to complement the wave of younger prospects. If expecting a 90+ win team isn't reasonable in 2013, they can try to build for the future 90 win team They seek higher upside players further from the majors. They retain players who are likely to contribute in 2014-2015. They sell high players in their 30s that can be expected to decline by 2014. They need to invest at bats in younger players with the knowledge that they will struggle as they develop Option 3: Shoot to build a competitive team (Instead of shooting for 90, shoot for 81) I think the goal of the 2013 team was to be competitive. They need to keep the upside prospects. They need to sign players entering decline to team friendly contracts. They need to trade pieces that are not under team control for 2013 I don't think 90+ wins is a reasonable expectation for next year. I would build for 2014 and beyond. I would see high players that have value and are over 30. In the context of the AL central, the option of building a competitive team is the direction I expect them to take again. A compeititive .500 level team will sometimes win 88 games. They also might win 73. It is very possible to enter a cycle of mediocrity when trying to patch together a competitive team year after year. On the other hand, someone will win the AL central next year. It is likely that team will not advance in the playoffs. If we hadn't had a taste of the playoffs for several years, I would advocate for this direction. I want them to build the next Twin team to win a playoff series. I think the quickest route to that win given their current midmarket budget is to build long term and trade high their valuable players this July. I can endure a poor 2013 season if there is more hope for the future.

Yes. As long as they get an offer clearly better than a comp pick.

This is exactly the right time to trade Willingham. He is healthy and hitting. His value will never be greater than it is this July. He is very likely to have regressed or have health trouble this time next year.

Lots of "team friendly" contracts awarded to decline phase players adds to the cycle of mediocrity. Mediocre teams always have guys like Carroll, Doumit and Willingham on the rosters. They are great in the clubhouse. Their contributions look good in the context of a below .500 team. In a few years, we can continue the cycle and replace them with different decline phase players on team friendly commitments.

The answer is simple. The sample size is too small and insignificant for study. The differences are meaningless. With some more data you could look at K/PA and BB/PA, but the other numbers are not close to stable with so little data.

The Twins should be interested in trading him. His value will never be greater than it is now. I do not think he can bring a Zach Lee level prospect back. If he and Doumit are still around in 2014, the Twins will have two aging players in decline that are significant defensive liabilities.

I read page 89 again and it is not clear to me that the Twins would receive the forfeited pick. It is not explicitly stated. Until today, I was sure it was two. I have been convinced otherwise. As for timing, Liriano and the Twins will have 5 days following the season to work out an offer. After that Liriano will have accepted or enter free agency. The Twins will be bidding against Liriano's perception of his worth. I agree with John that he might see a three year deal as a safer road even at 8-9 million per year.

11) Health Do the Twins enter the offseason confident in the health of Mauer, Morneau and Span? Last offseason these were big question marks and may have been a factor in how they developed the roster. This winter's planning will be easier if the concussions, wrist and leg problems are a year behind them. To a lesser extent, Doumit is also managing his way through a rare healthy season.

I am using the work of Sky Andrecheck and Victor Wang to help assess Liriano's value. The work was done in 2009 so the value may be off but the relative value of prospects vs draft pick should be similar. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation With the help of the discussion about compensation, I believe that the Twins would receive one pick for Liriano after the first round (assuming they make a qualifying offer). I hope I am incorrect and they also get the pick forfeited by the signing team. If it is just one pick, it's value is about 2.6 million. That would be about equivalent to an under 22 grade C pitcher (2.1 million) combined with an under 22 Grade C hitter (0.7 million). The grades studied are taken from John Sickels work. A grade C would be probably be outside a team's top 10 of a typical organization They would not be top 100 BBA prospects. It appears that the lower bar of Liriano's value is two A-Ball prospects with some upside but no guaranteed future in the major leagues. These guys would not help in 2013. A pitcher close to contributing at the major league level seems out of the question. Of course, if I understand the new CBA incorrectly and the Twins get two picks the overall value is closer to 8 million raising the bar. The Twins would then expect a team to give up a top 10 pitching prospect (still outside BBA's top 100).

As we have debated the trading of Liriano, part of the discussion is always possible compensation. Amongst us the terms of the new CBA are not clear. Do we get one or two picks if we offer Liriano around 12.5 million for 1 year? Does the signing team lose a pick? Would we likely lose a pick if we chose to go after a top pitcher on the market? Should we trade Liriano, can the new team get compensation if he leaves in free agency? I thought the answers were 2, yes, yes and no based on http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/23/2581637/major-league-baseball-cba-labor-agreement The Elias free-agent rankings system is dead. Free-agent compensation is not. In order for a team to receive compensation for losing a free agent, that free agent must have played with the team all season. After the year, the team must offer the free agent a one-year contract worth the average of the 125 highest salaries. If that free agent signs with another team, the other team will give up its first-round pick, unless it picks in the top ten, in which case it will give up its second-round pick. The original team will also gain a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. In the event that there are multiple such picks, the teams will draft in reverse order of winning percentage. This seems to be in conflict with http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111122&content_id=26026776 • The current compensation system for losing "Type A" and "Type B" free agents will be eliminated. Under the new system, teams will receive compensation for losing a free agent only if they offer -- and the player rejects -- a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. Compensation for losing such players will consist of one draft pick at the end of the first round. • When clubs sign a compensation-eligible player, they will forfeit their own first-round selection, or their second-round selection if they pick in the top 10 If it is one pick for Liriano instead of two, I would be more inclined to trade him now. There is also value to a team trading for him. If they trade and sign, they will not lose a pick. If they sign a top pitcher in the winter, they will lose a pick.

If the Twins sign someone like Sanchez, wouldn't the Marlins get two picks (one from Twins) as long as they offered a compensation level contract? My assumption was that if they offered a pitcher a multiyear contract at Shields level salary, the pitcher they targeted would require compensation.

The best I can take from this discussion is the Twins are ranked somewhere between 12 and 16 in revenue, salary obligations and operating income. It seems like the numbers are what should be expected of a midmarket team.

I would respect the Rays too much to trade for Shields. We don't want them to pull a Kazmir on us. Hopefully they will take a close look at the data. His fastball has maintained velocity, but he throws it less often this year (27% compared to 42% career). The difference in speed between his cutter and fastball is closer than they have been in any other time during his career. His FIP still looks good. His BABIP may be high but it was in 2010 also. Is this the guy we want the Twins to invest in? Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick, but it will be less value than what we will have to give up to get Shields.

Additionally John Shipley reported his velocity was 91-94. I assume he threw all fastballs.

Cot's has them at $100,435,000. I don't think that includes Zumaya. The USA Today data may not have included Nishioka and Marquis who were in minors. If correct, the difference might be closer to 11.5 million which may have signed Edwin Jackson. It is questionable whether he would have come to Minnesota for the same pay as he received from the Nationals so it may not be a good comp. Edwin Jackson helps but it does not turn the Twins into a winning team. As for next year, I really hope that they do 1 or 2 larger contracts for a more elite player instead of the 3-6 million value contracts. For every Doumit who returns good value, we get three guys like Nishioka, Marquis and Carroll. I would prefer the Twins get one pitcher for the money those 4 get and fill in the other three spots with team control players or minor league deal guys. The same goes with the contracts for Span and Blackburn. They both signed what was portrayed to be team friendly seals to avoid arbitration. Are we really better off? Sure Span would be getting a good return next year but we are stuck with Blackburn's bad deal. You always overpay for top players and risk their injury. Let's just stop paying 3-6 million for the mediocre or injury risk players. Let's risk it on an elite player instead. Of course, the Twins have already started on the other path. Instead of putting every resource towards pitching first, they signed Doumit to another friendly contract. I understand that I am in the minority and maybe the sole voice on Doumit's contract. Is it really reasonable to project two more healthy seasons from Doumit? What does that leave them for pitching? I don't know, but I want the pitcher who is worth 3.5 million more than the one we get.

It is well documented that 2012 class was the weakest in a decade. It was especially weak in the top 10 and became weaker when Giolito injured his arm. Appel has to realize that he likely will not go any higher in next year's draft. Even a below average group will be better than this year's group. I wonder if Boras' plan is to test this case in court and try to make him a free agent.

The only way to sign Liriano and motivate him to give up his earned right to free agency is to overpay in years and dolllars. There are many reasonable contract proposals listed above. I don't see him accepting any of them. I would think it would take minimally a three year offer at 25-30 million. That may not be enough to motivate him to give up his free agent rights. I think the one year comp level offer is the better route. In order to keep a player and get them to give up their right to free agency, teams almost always overpay.

The only consideration is for players who will not be assets in 2013. There is not much they can do about Pavano at this point. Even options decision about Baker and Capps are no win unless Capps comes back healthy and has trade value. The only decision must be made about Liriano. If they trade him for less than we hope, that should be a sign that they did not plan to offer him the 12-13 million required for compensation. If they keep him, it is a sign to me that they plan to offer compensation. I don't know which is the correct course. I do know that doing nothing is the incorrect course. In that case , backlash is warranted.

From SBNation "The Elias free-agent rankings system is dead. Free-agent compensation is not. In order for a team to receive compensation for losing a free agent, that free agent must have played with the team all season. After the year, the team must offer the free agent a one-year contract worth the average of the 125 highest salaries. If that free agent signs with another team, the other team will give up its first-round pick, unless it picks in the top ten, in which case it will give up its second-round pick. The original team will also gain a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. In the event that there are multiple such picks, the teams will draft in reverse order of winning percentage." http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/23/2581637/major-league-baseball-cba-labor-agreement According to the above, it is still two picks.

Billy Hamilton... what a great name for his skills. Before Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock and even Ty Cobb, baseball had Sliding Billy Hamilton (944 career SBs, over 100 four times, HOF). He is probably an OF, but of course the Twins would want such an exciting player at any position. I can't imagine why the Reds would trade him. He is guaranteed to sell tickets when he arrives.