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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The games will start soon. My challenge to the Twin Daily bloggers is to pledge not to use any data in spring training. The samples are way too small. The quality if competition way too varied. The data is absolutely meaningless. Uncertain? Look at last year's numbers. Luke Hughes tore it up. People on this site were arguing the Mike Hollimon had earned a job. Brian Dinkelman and JR Towles joined them with an OPS's over .900. On the pitching side, Matt Maloney, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano dominated. Still uncertain? Look at 2011 data. That is not to say that a player can't earn a job. If he does, it must be through the eyes of the staff watching every at bat in the cage, looking at the quality of approach at the plate, seeing the range in the field during drills... We won't see it. We can't measure it. We can pledge not to use the data that is so obviously useless. Don't agree? Let's argue it out now before we get to the games.
  2. jorgenswest
    The difference is that every other player can choose whether or not to play with the Twins. So maybe you can look at the list of guys that signed in the 5-7 million and say if the Twins bump it up 2 million they surely would sign with the Twins. Had they done that and offered Saunders 9 or 10 or Myers 9 then I have a lot less to support the argument. On the other hand, I have no less confidence in Baker than any of the other guys that signed in his range. He is an injury risk with an upside of solid starter. Are any of the other guys more than a borderline league average starter? I think the market has changed. I think Parker foreshadowed it in his article about the cost of relief pitching. I don't think the Twins anticipated the change. If they had, they may have preferred a Baker over the other guys. Now they have 9 million in their pocket. I would rather have Baker. I said in October and I say it now. If at the all star break he isn't pitching, I will come back and give the Twins credit for their good decision.
  3. jorgenswest
    My comments on the Twins decision on Baker are absolutely consistent with a comment I wrote in this thread on 10/24. I said at that time that he was the one pitcher the Twins could guarantee on the roster. While others counted on the Twins opening their pocket books for the numerous free agents dreaming of the chance to play in Minnesota, a few had a more realistic outlook. Baker has more upside than any other free agent they signed. and John... Instead of giving the money to Baker, haven't they simply put it in their pocket? The 9 million didn't go anywhere else.
  4. jorgenswest
    While that 129 does not predict how he will pitch this year, it is descriptive of a performance in the middle of the number 5s. It isn't hard to find data to support that Correia will be a well below average starting pitcher. I commented because I was surprised to find anything that pointed to something other than a number 5 pitcher. When the Twins signed him, they must see the 2011 all star and borderline number 3 starter. On those terms, they found a bargain. It is hard to look at the metrics and see what the Twins see. It is possible that he will put together a few good months, get lucky with the BABIP and perform like a number 3 starter. At that point, the Twins can trade him. It is also possible that he will pitch like Marquis. Most likely he will land somewhere in between, working hard and performing at a level 25-30 percent off league average while taking the ball every 5th day.
  5. jorgenswest
    Earlier this off season with discussion on starting pitchers often assigning a number to a pitcher. I began to wonder what performance can be expected from a number 3 (or 1, 2, 4, 5) pitcher. I took the last three years taking the top 150 (30 x 5) pitcher per year. I sorted them by ERA-. While not a predictive measure, it is descriptive of performance and normalizes for park, league and year. I found that the median pitcher had an ERA- of 101-102 meaning he was about 1-2% worse than league average. This was not surprising as relievers have better ERAs and the best starters pitch more innings. The number 3 starters (ranked 61-90) had ERA- ranges of 94-109. So a pitcher with a 109 ERA- was a borderline number 3 pitcher. A pitcher with an ERA 9% worse than league average. What add to this thread? Kevin Correia landed in the 90th slot last year according to data from his starts. He ranked ahead of 60 starting pitchers. His performance according to ERA- was that of a borderline number 3 starter. I know that his predictive stats tell a different story. His FIP- and xFIP- put him in the mid number 4 range. I know that his performance in previous years did not rank as high. My purpose wasn't to project player performance. It was just to describe what kind of performance can be expected from a number X starter. I was surprised to find that if I want to know what performance to expect from a border line number three starter, I can look to Kevin Correia's performance in 2012.
  6. jorgenswest
    Lots of position battles this year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Now that the Twins have navigated through the winter and made additions to their rotation we can look back at the decision on Scott Baker. While other pitchers like Joe Saunders chose other teams in spite of the Twins interest, Baker was the one pitcher the Twins could have guaranteed signing. They simply needed to pick up his option at 9.25 million. If he is healthy this year, he will achieve the performance bonus and earn 7+ million with the Cubs. The Twins would have overpayed by 2 million, but it is clear now that they were going to have to overpay someone. Had they offered the 9 million to Saunders, he may have taken it. He could have been a Twin for a year. I would rather have had Baker. It seems like there was a better chance that Baker would be open to an extension and Saunders a one year rental. I think Baker will be healthy and pitching well by the end of May. I would be much more confident in their rotation this year if Baker were in camp.
  8. jorgenswest
    Is an 8.2 K/9 significant in AAA? It is close to his 8.4 rate through 5 seasons or partial seasons in AAA. (Note: it is probably more sound to use K/PA). I decided to use the more familiar k/9. I looked at Rochester last year and among relievers 8.2 looks well below average. Once you get to individuals relievers, all will have sample size problems. Looking at it as a group, Slama(13.9), Gutierrez(11.2), Oliveros(10.7), Robertson(10.4), Deduno(9.9), Vasquez(8.8) and Guerra(8.8) all put up better rates. Compared to the group, 8.2 looks a little mediocre. I looked at the 2011 data in Oklahoma City. His 8.9 looks good until you see a bunch of relievers on the team did better. Look at 2010, you will find the same mediocre results when looking at K rate. It doesn't seem likely that a pitcher would maintain his K9 rate in the majors over time. Given that he doesn't get ground balls (in the majors or minors), how far can his K9 rate fall in the majors while still being effective over time? I don't think it has any room to fall. Even at 8.2, he may not have enough to be effective.
  9. jorgenswest
    He has had good strike out numbers in the minors. It wasn't good enough for the Astros (2011) or Tigers(prior to 2011) to give him a sustained chance in the majors. I hope you are right. It will give the Twins two Cal-Poly guys on the staff. Maybe they can engineer some wins.
  10. jorgenswest
    How can the Twins best use the 25th roster spot? The argument for a pinch hitter. The Twins will likely have three very poor bats in the line up in many games. Two of Florimon, Escobar and Dozier could be in the game. Mastroianni had large splits in the minors .831/.687 L/R OPS. It would be beneficial to have a left handed bat on the bench. The argument for the third catcher. Doumit is an awful defensive catcher. A DH/PH/emergency catcher role may fit his skills better. The lack of interest in him last winter might indicate there are several teams that would not give him a regular role as a catcher. The Twins need a real catcher backing up Mauer. So if you believe that the Twins need a back up catcher, who brings more value? Butera or Herrmann? Butera has more experience and is at least average defensively. He will never be used as a pinch hitter. Herrmann has more offensive skills and bats left handed. He is likely a better hitter against right handed pitching than Carroll, Escobar, Florimon, Dozier or Mastroianni. He would be useful as a pinch hitting option. Herrmann may do the better job of fitting both needs but possibly neither well enough. Based on catching only, Butera is the better option. If a bat on the bench is the need, there would be better options.
  11. jorgenswest
    Listening to Gleeman and the Geek and their preference for Casey Fien motivated me to learn a little more about him. How much weight will the Twins put in Casey Fien's performance in a small sample in the majors? Reasons for concern... His numbers in AAA were mediocre for a reliever. His small sample in the majors was aided by an unsustainable .229 BABIP. His ground ball rate was 24.7% in the majors and 29.4% over the previous 2 years in the minors. Already 29, his age gives him no hope for upside. Do you share their confidence in Fien? Will he be an asset in the bullpen this year?
  12. jorgenswest
    This is the first I have read about Escobar not being ready with the glove. I do know that BBA had him listed as the best defensive infielder in the White Sox farm system 4 years running. Sickels and baseball analyst both list strong positives for his defense. I have seen questions in the reports about Florimon's high error rate and inconsistency inthe minors. Do you have a source that you can point me too that would cause you to question Escobar's defensive readiness?
  13. jorgenswest
    Sample size and the reliability of a partial season predicting the future is often misunderstood. Dozier has an OPS of 603 after a sample of 340 plate appearances. That's not good, but not enough data to predict the future with any reliability. If Dozier were later in his career, OPS would stabilize at 500 plate appearances. He has a few other factors working early in his career. His age still puts him in the growth phase. He limited time at the major league level still leaves room for growth. For players like Dozier, the second 500 plate appearances will be the better indicator. The Twins invested those 1000 plate appearances in Valencia and Casilla without a pay off. Their patience with some others (like Bartlett, Hunter, Morneau, Gagne...) did pay off. I don't know whether Dozier will be a solution at second base. I do know that his performance last year is not a reliable predictor of the future. The Twins are rebuilding. They should be investing plate appearances into players who can be part of the future solution. The decision the coaching and front office staff needs to make is whether the talent they have seen in Dozier merits the investment.
  14. jorgenswest
    Reasons to bet under... - Bottom of the league starting pitching - the defense with Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Plouffe, Mastroianni in center may be worse than the pitching - big drop off when either Willingham, Mauer and Morneau is injured - Morneau or Willingham could be traded with big drop off in replacement - Florimon and Butera could be the bottom two bats in baseball. Reasons to be over... - Gibson, Hendriks and Hardin have some upside and improve the rotation - Hicks and Arcia make it to the show and stabilize OF defense. Mauer catcher 120 games and Doumit leaves glove at home. Plouffe steps it up at 3B as he gets to focus on the position for the first time. - Morneau is traded but Parmelee and Arcia play well. To me the success of the season is not the win column. It will be a success if the key young players on the system take a step forward. It will be a success if the Twins can turn some decline phase assets into prospects. At the major league level, much is riding on the performance of Plouffe, Parmelee, Hendriks, Diamond and Dozier. How many of these under control players can the Twins count on in 2014-2015? These guys have some major league time under their belt. If they are not successful this year, there will be good reason to question whether they are part of the solution.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wish it was more like 82-83. The current roster has too many decline phase players that will not be part of the solution. I think there is a good chance that either the 6th infielder or 4th outfielder will be a player who is not in the organization yet.
  16. jorgenswest
    I wish there was similar data to study Allan Anderson. What made him so effective for such a small window of time? Parallels to Diamond? His first full season was his best. I hope we haven't seen the best of Diamond yet.
  17. jorgenswest
    Wouldn't his status as a prospect as he moved through the minors give him slightly better odds that he will be a useful major league player? His performance at the major league level is not good, but he still is far short of 1000 plate appearances. A change of scenery has helped others in he past. I wouldn't bet on him. I would bet that he will have a longer major league career as a SS than Florimon or Dozier.
  18. jorgenswest
    Unlike Hicks, Benson does not take as many pitches. A quality you would expect from a lead off hitter. Batting in the top of the lineup would be asking him to do something he doesn't do as well. I don't see a similar skill set to Gladden. Benson, if he progresses, is likely to be a low average hitter with some power and strikeouts.
  19. jorgenswest
    Most importantly, it appears that the front office has not given up hope in Benson. If he does get a chance, his skills probably don't match a lead off hitter as well as Hicks or even Mastroianni.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am not sure we can do it until Buxton has been signed for a year. No reason to discuss until we get there. Views of both players will change as they play this year.
  21. jorgenswest
    They need a fourth OF. If Hicks or Benson make the team, Mastroianni is the 4th OF. Otherwise, the role appears wide open without an option that looks much better than Campana. Brandon Boggs is old, hasn't hit and has been predominantly a LF in majors. Last year he was a RF in minors. Wilkin Ramirez is barely a LF. He is not a real option for a 4th OF. We saw Clete Thomas last year. Of the three here, he has the most recent experience in CF though his major league experience in mostly at a corner. If Hicks is not ready, I think the Twins will find a waiver wire guy. They probably have already identified a few guys that will likely be DFA'd by their teams.
  22. jorgenswest
    Over/Under on Scott Diamond wins this year? I would put it around 8.5
  23. jorgenswest
    Why have instruction at all if not to change and improve approach? Wouldn't almost any 18 year old have parts of their approach and swing that they would need change to progress through the minors? With that change will come struggle and set back as Denard encountered in the minors. Of the 41 players drafted in the first round + supplemental that year Span ranks 6th in career WAR while being picked 20th. Wouldn't that suggest that the Twins did a reasonably good job of selecting and developing his talent?
  24. jorgenswest
    Plouffe has never gone into a spring training as a third baseman. He has one position to focus on. He has the arm to be successful. I don't see why he can't grow towards an average defender at 3B as he gains experience at the position. Third base is a position that relies on reaction more than any other. Reaction time is partially built on repeated experience.
  25. jorgenswest
    Anything on the dollars? He must have determined that he had a better chance to build value next year with the Mariners. He sat on the Twins offer for a few weeks.
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