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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    How did we go from platooning to send down to Rochester? If Ramirez starts against lefties in RF, Parmelee will still see time at 1B or DH in some of those games. He will also start the majority if games in right. Not because he earned it, not because of a scholarship, but because the Twins assess that he is the best option. I can't disagree. Based on the whole of his performance over the last two years, there is a reasonable chance he can provide league average play for a RF or 1B for the next several years. Why platoon? His OPS in AA and AAA over the last two years is more than 200 points lower against lefties.
  2. jorgenswest
    Thanks again for a very detailed report. Ramirez would be useful on the bench though scouting reports on the 3B turned corner OF have never been good about his defense. He has the speed and maybe over time improved the instincts. He can't be worse than Willingham or Parmelee. I would like to see him in the bench. Though his platoon splits in the minors have been neutral, would you platoon him with Parmelee?
  3. jorgenswest
    I agree. I would add Burton, Perkins, Doumit and Carroll to that list. Perkins probably has the most value. The best predictor of future arm injuries is previous arm injuries. Perkins isan injury away from no value. What would he a Tigers part with to get him? Burton may have been a one year wonder. The Twins signed him to an extension buying next year when they didn't need to. He was under team control. Let's find someone to take him and next year's contract soon. Can they find anyone else who believes Doumit is a catcher? If they can, get something and get out of the two year commitment. If you watched today's game, you saw he Twins, Doumit's and Correia's frustration with the strike zone. Post game comments about Correia's need to throw more strikes. No argument from me there. I think our catcher needs to give more help. It might not be long before the Dodgers or Cardinals feel the need for a temporary solution at SS. Andrus and Hardy will be expensive. Maybe they will see Carroll as a better short term solution.
  4. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the report. Do you think Hicks, Span or Revere get to any of those balls? Was it a bad day or is his range in centerfield more limited then we have seen from Span, Revere or Hicks?
  5. jorgenswest
    This guy is an awful defender. That should be written to headline this post. It doesn't matter if he hits better. He is not a shortstop. Unless a player is changing positions, you will not see considerable defensive growth as players enter their prime. Defense will also decline before the bat. If a team can find a young player with a good glove and weak bat, it is not unusual for the bat to improve as the player progresses towards mid career. These guys are worthy of investments in playing time up the middle. On the other hand, guys with and good bat and poor glove generally don't improve their glove enough and move to a less demanding position on the defensive spectrum. Escobar and Florimon reportedly have the glove. Escobar is young enough to grow the bat. Florimon is on the edge where he can still grow some. One of these two could develop into an adequate bat and plus glove. Why not invest in that possibility? Like a few other signings, Betancourt would only add to the cycle of mediocrity.
  6. jorgenswest
    Starting pitching is so difficult to find. The Twins should be interested.
  7. jorgenswest
    Sample size and reliability of statistics relates to the data. The sample is the data without the context of watching the performance. Hopefully the Twins employ coaches and scouts that can learn and assess a great deal from watching players practice and perform in a handful of games. It can not be the data that informs the Twins whether a player has improved. Whether or not Deduno or Butera have improved rests in the assessment if the Twins management observing the approach and looking for specific areas of growth. Improvement can not be measured by data. Spring data should never be cited in the support of an improvement shown by a player. The sample is to small.
  8. jorgenswest
    Escobar is young enough and has the defensive ability to grow into a starter. There have been many shortstops that enter the majors with their glove and become adequate at the plate. Cedeno is a poor defender. There is no way his mediocre bat makes up for his defense. You are right about the .670. His bat has grown since his mid 20s. The bats of the Twin middle infielders can improve also with major league playing time.
  9. jorgenswest
    Deduno won't be helped by AAA. The Twins can afford to give him a long look. Let's put him out there opening day against Verlander.
  10. jorgenswest
    Reasons why the Cardinals may have released him in spite of losing their starting shortstop. -After 2500 MLB PA his career OPS is .647. How does this not get mentioned in the post? -He is a poor fielding shortstop according to both scouting report and defensive metrics. -At 30, he has no upside. Should we throw all of that out because of data from 16 ST games? The Cardinals are regarded as a smart organization with a need at SS. I hope the Twins are as smart. They need to give this job to the guy with the best glove and let the bat grow. If they have two plus defenders that increases the hope that one will grow his bat over time.
  11. jorgenswest
    The articles bring me to this site. Why not make them more prominent? Keep the forum content distinct from the article content. Keep the front page for the articles. The side bar can feature links to recent articles organized by key writer. Let me see links to the most recent articles by Parker, Seth,... Expect baseball focused discussion related to these articles. Let the threads in the forum be the place where the standards of discussion are different. Don't relink articles in the forum. Those that enjoy bantering mixed with a little baseball discussion will head there for entertainment. Remove the links to the forum from the front page. Just my two cents. There has been some terrific baseball writing on this site in the last year. There has also been some entertaining banter. Ideally the banter doesn't overshadow the quality of the content.
  12. jorgenswest
    If the topic interests you, there have been several studies on the topic. Why do teams exceed their win expectancy? Is it luck? The following suggested that leverage (bullpen plays a significant part of leverage), a balanced lineup and an experienced manager can partially explain why a team exceeds its win expectancy. Pondering Pythagoras This more recent study looks only at managers. Manager Wins Above Expectancy - Beyond the Box Score If it isn't entirely luck, teams would be wise to figure out what factors help a team get those extra wins. Every win purchased in free agency is very expensive. This may be a more efficient route.
  13. jorgenswest
    No chance.
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree. Hendriks is much younger. He has been much better in AA and AAA. He is the only one with upside. Look at Viola's first two seasons and 56 starts at a similar age. He was the worst pitcher in baseball. Look at Radke. Santana's first two seasons from the pen were terrible. The only way to find out if Hendriks is to put him out there every fifth day and be patient in the investment.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to keep Benson if they send down Hicks. Ramirez is not a good defender anywhere in the OF. Boggs is a LF option. I would send down Hicks for the extra year of control and then flip him with Benson in late April. They would be trading three weeks of his rookie season for all of his 2019 season. Benson would still get plenty of playing time in AAa.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins agree with you. They will probably continue to ignore it. Is that your recommendation? If it is an illusion, then how is it possible that over several years and each year Molina does consistently well and Doumit does consistently poorly? Remember that this is supported by a sample of thousands of pitches. Both have played with multiple teams. Inexperienced staffs? How does that explain Jaso's performance with virtually the same staff as Molina? How about Chris Snyder vs. Doumit? I would have gone into spring training with a different plan for back up catcher. I am not sure if we should project what the Twins will do or should do. I think they should find a back up at catcher that will be an asset to the young staff. I think Doumit should be in a Jim Thome role. At this Butera is the only option until someone is DFA'd by another team.
  17. jorgenswest
    The best case is Morneau returns to form and gives the Twins options. They can afford to make the qualifying offer or deal him in the summer. If his hitting is similar to last year, the Twins won't have options. The best case would be to trade him to a cash strapped contender, pick up his salary and buy a prospect. Most teams will view Doumit as a DH/PH. I don't think there will be much trade value. They couldn't get anything for Thome a few years ago with an OPS+ of 126. Doumit's bat will likely be below that level. Parmelee is under team control for several years. If he plays well and has trade value, it will better to retain control and keep him. If he doesn't have trade value... Willingham also is a defensive liability and difficult to trade unless he can match his OPS+ of 144 (significantly higher than any other season in his career). If he returns to his career rate of 125, he won't bring back much in trade. If his history of injury trouble returns... Thinking that the Twins can get back significant prospects in return is as realistic as thinking Liriano was worth a top 100 prospect.
  18. jorgenswest
    Should Doumit get any regular time at catcher? I hope the Twins will be paying attention to his defense. If it is as bad as some studies suggest, his bat at catcher can not make up for this deficiency. They had better be looking at the videos and pitch f/x. Steinbach had better be working with him towards improving his ability to frame pitches. If not, his only useful role is as DH/PH/emergency 3rd catcher. I am not saying Butera is the answer. He does not fare as well defensively as you would expect from a guy who is limited with the bat. I don't think the Twins have an answer.
  19. jorgenswest
    Deduno is intriguing. His combination of groundball rate (58.3%) and infield fly ball rate (17%) are both among the highest rates for starting pitchers last year. It points to how difficult it is for batters to get good contact against him. Where does he fit on a staff? Starter or reliever? I would think that starting is the better role. The only way he can be successful as a starter would be if he can handle large pitch counts. Can he be effective at 120+ pitches? Will he still get the same movement on his pitches to that point? Will he maintain enough command? Some pitchers maintain their effectiveness with large pitch counts. Will he remain healthy with large pitch counts? He had Tommy John surgery in 2008. I don't think there is another option. His command makes coming in as a middle reliever with runners on base difficult. As a starter, unless they are willing to extend him to large pitch counts, he will have a hard time going beyond 5 innings.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would trade 1 month of the 23 year old Hicks for a full season in his prime. It is only a few weeks before the Twins gain an additional year of control. They should not care about super 2 status. They can afford the additional cost due to an extra year of arbitration status. They should care about that additional year of control. Benson has the glove to be the 4th OF in April while getting a few starts against left handed pitching.
  21. jorgenswest
    This is the study. Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects Does additional time in the minors pay off? Look at the Mets. They rush players faster than anyone. Look at their payoff. They basically received nothing in return in the first two seasons from their prospects. The Twins received among the better payoff from their prospects. Read the paragraph below the WARP graph. Only two teams had more prospects surpassing the 3 WARP threshold in their first two seasons than the Twins. Worm33 is correct about draft age. The study really needs to factor in age or account for college plate appearances and innings.
  22. jorgenswest
    New Britain is the roster to watch this year. Until players arrive in AA and find success at this level, scheduling arrival in the majors is without foundation. As for the Twins being slow to promote prospects, that can happen when your system is weak while the major league team is strong. Mauer, Morneau, Span, Hunter... they set their timeline based on the way they performed. Dozier is not a good case study. He was drafted older. He was never a good prospect. No amount of time in the minors was going to turn him into a good prospect. There have been some similar players who have had good careers in the majors. The typical path is starting with a plus glove and growing the bat over time while in the majors.
  23. jorgenswest
    Today's radio broadcast had him returning midseason.
  24. jorgenswest
    Help me with the source of this additional report.
  25. jorgenswest
    All three are limited defensively. I am with greengoblinrulz. The better discussion is on Nick's building a bench article. Seems like this thread could have been a comment to add to that discussion.
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