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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The cardinals like him better in CF. Why would they trade him and have to play Jay full
  2. jorgenswest
    For Liriano, it is all about the slider. Last year it was a great pitch and he threw it often. This year, it has been an average pitch and he has decreased his use slightly. Batters must be laying off it and forcing him to use the fastball or change up to get strikes. If he can regain the command and dominance of the slider, he will be among the better pitchers. It's Searage's job to help him find that pitch again. No easy task.
  3. jorgenswest
    You don't have to look at the metrics if you trust the Cardinals assessment of his defense. Look at the Cardinals decision to replace him with Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is a poor hitter and has more starts in center in spite of an OPS over 100 points less than Jay. It has to be the glove. I don't think the Cardinals feel Jay has enough defense to be an every day CF or enough bat to be an every day corner OF. He is in his best role now of 4th OF. I wouldn't trade a good starting pitching or up the middle prospect for him. I might sell high on Vargas, but I would want to see what happens when Fuld comes back. Jay might be a one win improvement over Fuld, the Twins really need to be contenders to give up any significant prospect.
  4. jorgenswest
    It will likely take an investment of innings for May to adjust to the major leagues. Though I am not confident that he will be more effective than Correia in 2014, I would prefer they begin making that investment soon. The same can be said for Meyer.
  5. jorgenswest
    Wouldn't pulling only qualified pitchers skew the data? I would expect the group of pitchers who did not qualify would not perform as well as those who qualified. That is a total of 15 WAR. Last year only three teams achieved at least a sum of 15 WAR over 162 starts. The median team WAR from starters was 11.55. It seems like the value of the rotation spots should sum closer to the median.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins are close enough to the super2 line (there isn't an exact date but projected to be somewhere mid to late June) to wait a few more weeks. By the end of the month, both May and Meyer need an opportunity. They can release Correia or seek a taker of his salary. He also can be moved to the pen if there is space due to injury or trade. He has skills that fit the bullpen. He should not be blocking them. Deduno will not have he benefit of a large sample to consider the data, but he does need to show that he can get deep in games. If his control consistently leads to 15-20 pitch innings, it is really difficult to keep him on the rotation. That only works if he can throw 120 pitches regularly. He probably shouldn't be blocking May or Meyer.
  7. jorgenswest
    At this number of plate appearances, strike out rate, walk rate and possibly ISO have passed the small sample threshold. Those numbers are encouraging given the jump to AA. 2014 15.1%, 11.3%, .190 2013 20.2%, 9.6%, .201 In the last two years, the Twins have moved up some prospects in the second half of a June. It makes sense as it coincides with the A-Ball all star games and signing of some draft picks. The AA all star game is July 16 if they wait that long.
  8. jorgenswest
    We'd have to ask our manager. Joe Mauer injury his back mysteriously and misses several days with only respectful comments from our manager. Aaron Hicks injurs his back stealing a home run and helping us win a ball game and he is ridiculed having missed two starts.
  9. jorgenswest
    Definitely not. However, I think the quote came up first in pregame. I interpreted it as a during batting practice when discussion with Gardy about his back with Gardy. He wasn't sure about facing breaking balls and Gardy made a line up change. I inferred that it was because of his back and adjusting to a breaking ball. Gardy could have still joked that he could ask the Yankees to not throw breaking balls. He did take him out of the line up. Would we prefer our players keep their injuries a secret? Hicks would have been better off not stating his concern. Now it will likely be reported on KFAN tomorrow that he doesn't want to face breaking balls (without the context).
  10. jorgenswest
    I believe the context of the radio broadcast was condition of his back. I suppose looking fastball and adjusting to breaking ball can impact the back. Leaving the context out changes the meaning. Perhaps it was said more than once in the broadcast.
  11. jorgenswest
    Offensively, Jay and Span are a match. I am not so sure they are a match with the glove. We could look at defensive metrics to answer the question and then argue their value. I don't think we need to do that. The Cardinals have answered the question by trading for Bourjos and playing him in spite of a dismal April performance. Jay's bat is clearly better. Good enough to be ranked 13th among CFs last year by RC+. Why replace him? Why look for a replacement? He's 29. He has a reasonable contract. It has to be the glove. They must not feel it is adequate for CF. Last year was his first as a regular at that position. Enough time for the Cardinals to assess that they should look elsewhere. He helps the Twins this year more than the Cardinals. However, I don't think he is a building block for the future. I would keep my building blocks. I wouldn't trade good up the middle or starting pitching prospects. They are too hard to acquire. I might sell high on Vargas though.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would pass on giving up top 10 prospects. Particularly pitching prospects. If the Twins care about outfield defense, they would at least have to wonder if Jay is really better on a corner. The Cardinals made the move for Bourjos because of his defense. Has Jay been on the DL? If not, why does he have fewer starts than Bourjos? That includes starts on the corners. Bourjos may not be in the same sentence, but he has been in the starting lineup more often.
  13. jorgenswest
    As mentioned by Leviathon earlier, the Cardinals have a surplus in the OF. What would you give up for Jay or Bourjos? It would be great if they wanted Burton or Florimon, but the Cardinals won't be dumping them. Would you trade May? Walker? Fien?
  14. jorgenswest
    A bench role where he starts occasionally, pinch runs and goes into LF as a defensive replacement is a good fit for Fuld. Similarly, a back up catcher role where he plays once a series and regularly catches Hughes is a good fit for Suzuki. It is hard to trust that Gardenhire will use the veteran Fuld in the 4th OF bench role.
  15. jorgenswest
    Is it cheaper or easier to build a rotation of 3/3/3/3/3 or 4/4/3/2/2? Would that rotation be as effective as 6/4/3/2/0? Can a solid 5th starter make up for lack of an ace?
  16. jorgenswest
    Twins need to release Kubel and call up a catcher. Pinto needs to DH.
  17. jorgenswest
    Some of the data is beyond the small sample threshold and has been for a while. Strike out rate walk rate groundball rate fly ball rate The drops in strike out rate and groundball rate is not a good combination. The drop is enough that it can not be explained by league change. The sample is large enough that it can't be explained by bad luck. I hope it is the pitch mix and increased use of his fastball. His slider has always been his most effective pitch. He needs to find that pitch and use it often.
  18. jorgenswest
    Replacement level CFs Julio Borbon, Clete Thomas, Jason Bourgeios, Jason Pridie They are all employed and provide their organizations some AAA depth at a very thin position. The Twins will have to give up something to get one. Take your pick. I would stay with Hicks.
  19. jorgenswest
    I guess I agree. Usual move. Not very convincing though. Nunez has on OBP of .307 for his career against lefties. Kubel's job is to hit. Being pinch hit for by the utility man is not a vote of confidence. No way that Nunez pinch hits for Thome. It wouldn't be a consideration.
  20. jorgenswest
    Looks a lot like the 2013 Twins today.
  21. jorgenswest
    Victorino did well last year switching midseason. This year he hasn't done as well in a small sample for splits. He now has one swing to develop. Hopefully there will be improvement against both left and right handed pitchers with the focus on one swing.
  22. jorgenswest
    Wouldn't the line up be better if the Twins kept Herrmann, released Kubel and played Pinto at DH? I keep hearing the words that those off season minor league free agent signings can't hurt. We have a DH in the line up today that has a slugging percentage lower than Drew Butera's. Kubel needs to step it up now. Strike out rates, walk rates and ISO are no longer small samples.
  23. jorgenswest
    Comparing numbers that stabilize at smaller sample, there has been a decline. 2011 K%=22.5% BB%=6.5% 2013 K%=16.3% BB%=11.3% A decline isn't unusual for a 33 year old reliever with a long track record. The Twins should have anticipated it. You don't get to be a 33 year old reliever without a long track record of good performance.
  24. jorgenswest
    50 games will be up soon. If he is starting in Fort Myers, is it 50 of their games? They are at 49. Since he ended in New Britain, does he need to wait out 50 New Britain games? They are at 47. I think that Vargas had to wait out 50 Elizabethton games though he was slated to play in Beloit.
  25. jorgenswest
    AAA Center Fielders 26 and older (I assume the younger players are still prospects). Take your pick. [TABLE=width: 273] NAME TEAM AGE Jason Bourgeois LOU[TD=align: right]32[/TD] Clete Thomas LHV[TD=align: right]30[/TD] Jason Pridie COL[TD=align: right]30[/TD] Julio Borbon NOR[TD=align: right]28[/TD] Corey Brown PAW[TD=align: right]28[/TD] Darin Mastroianni BUF[TD=align: right]28[/TD] Blake Tekotte CHA[TD=align: right]27[/TD] Nick Buss SAC[TD=align: right]27[/TD] Gorkys Hernandez CHA[TD=align: right]26[/TD] Matt den Dekker LV[TD=align: right]26[/TD] Tim Wheeler COL[TD=align: right]26[/TD] [/TABLE]
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